M. Hewson: l’andamento del Pil mette la tripla A Britannica sotto pressione
Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst) e Ben Taylor (Sales Trader) di CMC Markets
Il forte aumento della volatilità di questa settimana è alimentato da una serie di speculazioni di mercato che vanno da quelle che indicano la Spagna come ormai prossima ad una richiesta di salvataggio (con le agenzie di rating pronte a declassare nuovamente sia i titoli del debito iberico che quelli delle sue banche, rendendole ancora più dipendenti dalla Bce di quanto non siano tuttora) ad altre additate a supporto del rimbalzo visto nelle ultime ore, in primis l’aumentata possibilità che l’ESM possa ottenere una licenza bancaria e con essa la capacità di indebitarsi. In ultimo si registrano aspettative in crescita di essere ormai vicini ad un prossimo giro di stimoli monetari su scala globale come già visto nel recente passato.
Per questi motivi i trader hanno ricominciato a vedere il bicchiere mezzo pieno iniziando a ricoprirsi.
In questo nuovo contesto non sembra destare grande interesse il brutto dato sul Pil Uk uscito ieri che incrementa le possibilità di una perdita della tripla A nonchè quelle di un ulteriore politica monetaria espansiva sollevando dubbi persino sulla attendibilità degli ultimi dati occupazionali che sembravano dipingere uno scenario più roseo. Tradotte sul mercato valutario, queste ipotesi hanno giocato a favore dell’Euro che, dopo aver trovato supporto nell’area 1,2050 contro Dollaro Usa, potrebbe rimbalzare a 1,2170 prima e 1,23 poi anche se ciò non pregiudicherebbe minimamente – se non rimandandola temporalmente – l’impostazione ribassista a 1,1880. Contro la Sterlina, una chiusura settimanale dell’Euro sopra 0,7880 avrebbe il potere di provocare un cambiamento nel sentiment dopo settimane di ribassi. Possibilità di rimbalzo anche del Dollaro sullo Yen fintantochè permane su livello di 77,60. Si prevede un’apertura positiva per le principali borse europee.
UK Credit rating concerns after GDP miss
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior Market Analyst Michael Hewson)
Yesterday’s shocking UK GDP numbers were a sharp reminder of the problems facing the UK economy and likely to bring the usual concerns about the UK’s triple A rating which is already on negative watch. Certainly they will increase the pressure on the government to ease up on its current policy of reducing the deficit quickly. Despite the special factors in June there remains some suspicion about the numbers given the fairly positive PMI figures seen so far this year, as well as the falls in unemployment in recent months.
Given what is happening in Europe our credit rating would appear to be the least of our problems, and the loss of one of their “triple A’s” certainly hasn’t pushed France’s costs higher, but yesterday’s figures have made it more likely that the Bank of England will continue its easy monetary policy well into next year. Comments yesterday by ECB council member Nowotny appear to have raised the possibility that the ESM, if and when it gets ratified by the German Constitutional Court could be allowed to have a banking licence, especially after earlier comments this week by ECB President Draghi that there were “no taboos” when it came to preserving the euro.
Despite this it remains unlikely that such a measure could be brought in quickly given it would have to be ratified in every single euro member parliament. Ratings agency Moody’s certainly isn’t making things any easier after it downgraded the outlook of 17 German banking groups to negative watch, in the wake of this week’s earlier action on the sovereign. The agency also downgraded a number of Dutch banking groups in the same way.
As bond yields on Spanish and Italian bonds fell back from their highs speculation has been rising that Spain could be forced into asking for a sovereign bailout in a matter of days. Yesterday’s sharp move lower in bond yields suggests otherwise, and was also a welcome relief for Italy whose borrowing costs had been steadily rising in tandem with Spain’s this week.
Fears are now growing, given the current uncertainty that the ratings agencies could well cut Spain’s credit rating even further, thus triggering further downgrades on its banks and making them much more reliant on ECB funding than they already are. Italy will also be under scrutiny this morning after yesterday’s pullback in bond yields, and the downgrade by ratings agency Egan Jones, when it goes to the market to sell €2.5bn worth of 2 year zero coupon bonds.
In the US yesterday’s 8.5% plunge in new home sales for June has kept markets hoping that the Fed will be forced into some kind of action at next week’s FOMC meeting. Today’s economic data includes the latest weekly jobless claims numbers which are expected to come in at 380k, down slightly from last week’s 386k, still well below the 400k mark which we saw in the early part of this year. The latest June durable goods numbers are also expected to come in at 0.3%, down from 1.3% in May, however given Boeing’s numbers yesterday there could be an upward surprise in those numbers.
EURUSD – the single currency appears to be finding some level of support around the 1.2050 area, with yesterday’s rebound with a bullish daily candle has filled the gap between the 1.2140 level and Friday’s close at 1.2160. A move through 1.2170 is needed to stabilise for a move towards the 1.2300 level. If this were to occur it wouldn’t undermine the prospects for a move towards the 1.1880 level, it would just merely delay it. A monthly close below 1.2150 is likely to be the catalyst for a move lower though we should also be aware that the 200 month MA comes in at 1.2060. We are on course to post the lowest monthly close for six years.
GBPUSD – another daily Doji yesterday underlines the uncertainty with respect to the next move in cable. Even so the predominant range remains likely to hold sway here with resistance near the 200 day MA at 1.5750. There is trend line support at 1.5430 from the 1.5270 lows and this could conceivably hold any further downside pressure. Only a close below 1.5240 signals a risk of a return to the July 2010 lows at 1.4950.
EURGBP – yesterday’s break above the 0.7830 level suggests the possibility of further gains towards the 0.7880 level. After the bullish candle seen earlier this week, this was always a possibility. A break and weekly close above 0.7880, has the potential to herald a turnaround in sentiment after weeks of declines. A move above 0.7880 would then target a retest of the 0.8000 level and 55 day MA. A break below the October 2008 lows at 0.7695 could well see a test of the 2008 lows at 0.7390.
USDJPY – no change in view here as the US dollar continues to slide back towards the 77.60 May lows and the base of the weekly cloud. As long as this holds the downside the risk of a rebound remains quite high. A move above the 79.30 level brings the 80.00 level back into play and then by definition the main resistance at the top of the weekly cloud at 80.45.
Markets Rebound After Volatile Week
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)
Our market has rebounded today after a relatively volatile week of trading. The lack of economic news meant that European headlines mixed with company specific announcements guided our market today.
Caltex shares jumped today following an announcement it will be closing its Kurnell refinery in Sydney in the second half of 2014. The closure is expected to further reduce Caltex costs by axing jobs and importing refined oil products. Opponents of the move say that such a decision leaves NSW at the mercy of global energy markets where any escalations of problems could cause petrol prices to spike.
Qantas shares have also rallied hard today following its confirmation that it is in alliance talks with other airlines. Speculation overnight that the European Stability Mechanism may obtain a banking licence had the markets covering its shorts. The implication that the ESM would be able to leverage up via loans through the ECB had the market excited. While the speculation might be just that there is however a growing expectation that we are getting closer to further rounds of global stimulus. Last night’s US housing data was just another nail in the coffin for the United States economy, talk that the Fed will act sooner than later may be the backstop needed to stop the rot.