Forex Morning Comments: mercati in attesa dei dati sulle payrolls
Forex Morning Comments a cura di Brenda Kelly (Senior Market Strategist) e Tim Waterer (Senior Trader) di CMC Markets
In attesa di conoscere il timing esatto delle operazioni di riacquisto dei bond da parte della Bce che si vedrà nelle prossime settimane, i mercati oggi torneranno a volgere lo sguardo ad ovest ed in particolar al dato sui salari non agricoli dei lavoratori americani: qualora dovesse emergere un nuovo risultato sotto le centomila unità crescerebbe il numero di coloro che chiedono la ripresa del programma di Quantitative Easing adducendo lo stallo dell’economia Usa.
Un evento che potrebbe dunque riportare gli acquisti. Poichè tuttavia i mercati finanziari sono noti per essere impazienti, il ritorno sulle posizioni risk-off registrato così ampiamente nella seduta di ieri potrebbe avere degli strascichi anche oggi. Sul mercato valutario occorrerà aspettare la suddetta reazione ai non-farm payrolls per capire se una moneta così legata all’equity risk come il Dollaro Australiano possa tornare a 1.0550 o al contrario ritracciare a 1.0390.
Eurodollaro chiamato alla prova del test a 1,2150 potrebbe rivedere i minimi del mese di luglio o al contrario proseguire in un consolidamento che a nostro parere potrebbe portarlo verso 1,26. Debolezza della Sterlina nei confronti del Dollaro Usa – tornato safe-haven principale – verso 1,5450 e dell’Euro nei confronti della Sterlina con compromissione di un eventuale rimbalzo se si dovesse scendere sotto 0,78.
Choppy markets ahead as investors await Non-Farm Payrolls
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior Market Strategist Brenda Kelly)
In contrast to recent months, central banks around the globe appear to have engaged in a collective inaction this week. Draghi’s failure to provide a magic bullet was punished by the sharp declines in equity markets, but more relevantly, the Spanish and Italian bond markets.
It is quite fortunate for Spain that yesterday’s bond auction took place prior to the ECB presser however the comments from Mr. Draghi coupled with rising bond yields may serve to pile on the pressure for Spain to step up and request assistance. Although the ECB President did indicate that there may be some leniency in respect to debt seniority, we will need to wait to get a better understanding of the mechanics of the theoretical plan.
The results from the Spanish bank stress tests and the imminent implementation, subject to the German constitutional court, of the ESM in mid-September may provide a catalyst. Markets will have plenty of time over the next five weeks to speculate on what exactly the ECB will or indeed can do and while today’s market action suffer residual effects of the sell -off, there will be some important economic data releases to keep both traders and investors interested.
UK Services PMI will likely offer few surprises and stay in expansion territory. Given that the BOE has already extended its QE programme, it’s unlikely that a poor figure here will see any further action in the near future.
Emphasising the considerable fall back in Europe, Eurozone retail sales are likely to come in quite low after last month’s 0.6% with a figure of 0.1% expected today. It’s been a very mixed bag in terms of economic data from the States recently, with many indicators like heightened US consumer confidence confounding the markets.
The Non-farm payrolls will be the key, with expectations for an addition of 100,000 jobs after last month’s weak but not weak enough figures, a big miss may spur the Fed to ‘do what it takes’ at the next meeting in September. The unemployment rate will likely remain at 8.2%.
Following yesterday’s poor factory orders data, which missed expectations by 1% in June the US will provide us with the ISM-Non Manufacturing numbers which may improve slightly to 52.2.
EURUSD – the euro made a very short lived foray towards 1.2400 yesterday which very quickly led to a break below support around the 1.2220 and a strong test of the 1.2150 area. A close below this level could see a return to late July lows with a prior return move to test the 1.2220 resistance level. We continue to remain mindful of last week’s bullish weekly candle as well as the support at the 200 month MA at 1.2060, the July lows, which means the risk of a short squeeze towards 1.2600 remains.
GBPUSD – the short term support 1.5540 level has been breached with the 1.55 level holding for now. A breakdown retargets the trend line support at 1.5450 from the 1.5270 lows and these needs to hold to prevent a move back to 1.5270. The region between 1.5740/80 with the 200 day MA and the June and July highs is also important resistance in order to prevent a break towards 1.5910. Only a close below 1.5240 signals a risk of a return to the July 2010 lows at 1.4950.
EURGBP – The single currency made another failed attempt to break and hold above 0.7880 resistance. Below this level the risk remains for further losses. This week’s pullback may dissipate should we see a fall below 0.7800. While a slide further through 0.7755 targets the October 2008 lows at 0.7695, a break of which could well see a test of the 2008 lows at 0.7390. Only a sustained break above resistance at 0.7880 suggests further gains towards the 55 day MA and the 0.8000 level.
USDJPY – the US dollar continues to find support below the 78.00 level, trading in a narrow range but capped by the uptrend resistance from the February lows around 78.60. Cloud support at 77.30 and the May lows at 77.60 remain the key levels. As long as this holds the downside, the risk of a rebound remains quite high. A move above the 79.30 level brings the 80.00 level back into play and then by definition the main resistance at the top of the weekly cloud at 80.45.
Financial markets searching for deeds rather than words from ECB
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior Trader Tim Waterer)
The ECB press conference came and went with more of the same good intentions that Draghi signalled last week. However financial markets are in need of deeds not just words, which is why traders feel none the wiser today about a resolution timeline on Europe. The result was a predictable pull-back from Risk assets.
While action from the ECB will still likely happen in coming months, financial markets are not known for their patience and the lack of immediate action was inevitably met with some petulance by traders. Not surprising then that the US Dollar was again a favourite with investors given disappointment from the ECB, with the Euro, gold and oil all giving up ground as a result of the stronger Greenback.
Given the disappointment surrounding the FOMC and ECB meetings this week, market patience could be stretched to breaking point if US employment numbers miss the mark to the low side. If we see another sub 100k result the chorus of QE3 supporters will grow if jobs data signals that the US economy is close to stalling.
After making a break for 1.06 (hitting a high of 1.0580) the AUD has followed the retreat of equity markets and the Euro to sit below 1.05 again. During Asian trading hours today, the AUDUSD rate spent much of its time in the 1.0450-1.0470 range with further break-out moves on hold until we navigate past US Non-Farm Payrolls data.
The result of the US jobs numbers and the implications for the potential unveiling of QE3 will be the chief driver of financial markets to round out the week. US equity market reaction to the jobs data will set the tone for whether the AUD follows risk assets higher and make a push for 1.0550 or retreats to 1.0390.
There was not much joy for the Australian sharemarket to end the week, with a pullback in commodity prices resulting from the ECB non-action being of particular burden to our large-cap mining stocks such as RIO and BHP. In addition, the writedowns on BHP did little in the way of improving the performance of the Materials sector today, while oil stocks felt the effects of a decline in the price of crude overnight. Overall, the Australian market performance was in line with the global feeling of discontent stemming from ECB inaction.