M. Hewson: le notizie in arrivo da Europa e Stati Uniti spingono i mercati
Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst) e Tim Waterer (Senior Trader) di CMC Markets
Quanto può durare il rimbalzo messo a segno dai mercati venerdì? Nonostante gli investitori abbiano tirato un sospiro di sollievo dopo aver letto i dati sull’occupazione americana e siano pronti a concedere a Draghi i tempi supplementari, non dimentichiamo che ogni rally “di recupero” ha sempre avuto il fiato corto nel recente passato, per quanto la scorsa settimana la Bce abbia segnato una pietra miliare nell’affermare che l’inazione da parte della Banca Centrale Europea non possa più essere considerata un’opzione praticabile e che – anche se per ora sono state manifestate solo le intenzioni – si sia pronti ad agire.
Potremmo presto assistere ad una dimostrazione pratica di ciò che è stato annunciato qualora si concretizzasse l’ipotesi di una nuova richiesta di aiuti da parte del governo spagnolo, per quanto il fatto abbia in sè le potenzialità di causare le dimissioni del governo Rajoy che ha continuato ad affermare in queste settimane che Madrid non fosse nelle condizioni di chiedere aiuto.
Anche questa mattina, come visto sui mercati asiatici, i trader non hanno perso tempo lanciandosi nuovamente alla ricerca di asset a maggiore rendimento. Di conseguenza abbiamo assistito ad un recupero di valore da parte di tutti gli asset non denominati in dollari Usa: l’Euro, dopo aver chiuso al rialzo per la seconda settimana consecutiva, è pronto a muovere oltre 1,2430 prima di raggiungere un nuovo obiettivo a 1,26 dato che anche la configurazione grafica sembrerebbe giocare a favore di un rally della moneta unica. Per contrastare questo scenario occorrerebbe rivedere la rottura ribassista di 1,2220. Recupero della moneta unica anche nei confronti della Sterlina con target a 0,7980.
Sopra 79,30 il Dollaro potrebbe raggiungere finalmente quota 80 contro lo Yen; nella corsa al rialzo si inserisce anche il Dollaro Australiano che potrebbe presto riprendere 1,0670 nei prossimi giorni specie se questa settimana la RBA dovesse segnalare un’ulteriore riluttanza ad abbassare nuovamente i tassi di interesse.
Europe reassessment and US jobs data gives markets a boost
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior Market Analyst Michael Hewson)
After the initial disappointment of Thursday’s policy inaction by the ECB markets, once they had time to reflect, decided that Thursdays outcome and Draghi’s comments may not have been as bad as initially thought. This reassessment combined with an improvement to US payrolls data, albeit with a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, saw markets rally strongly into the weekend.
The question now is, can it last? ECB President Draghi’s shift on potential intervention in short term Spanish and Italian bond markets, while falling short of immediate market expectations was a shift in tone for the ECB, albeit with strict conditionality. For a country to qualify for potential ECB help in keeping bond yields down, they would have to conform to the strict conditionality of a bailout program, which now places the ball firmly and squarely back in the Spanish government’s court. Weekend speculation now surrounds whether or not Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy will reverse his governments previous strong resistance that they don’t require a sovereign bailout to go with their banking bailout.
This speculation has been boosted by reported comments by Mr Rajoy at the weekend that he would consider making such a request, after previously insisting that Spain would not need a bailout.
This would be an enormous climb down on his part, and could also be politically ruinous, as well as potentially heralding the beginning of the end of his government as politically credible, given the number of previous climb-downs and policy mishaps we’ve seen over the past few weeks, from Spanish government figures.
If last week’s events were important in one respect, they were an admission by the ECB that inaction was no longer an option, and while the undertaking to act is indeed welcome, the intention so far remains only verbal. Any action by the ECB remains dependant on a variety of political factors which need to fall into place, and if the history of this crisis over the past few years has taught us anything, any relief rally has a tendency to be short lived.
Investors would do well to remember that about previous relief rallies before they get too carried away, after Friday’s strong rebound. Some of these political risks affecting the euro were highlighted at the weekend by the Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti in an interview with De Spiegel where he highlighted rising national resentment caused by the current crisis as a risk to the longevity of the European project, which needed to be fought against. Meanwhile in Greece, the government and its creditors finally agreed on the need for more budget cuts after more than a week of negotiations in Athens.
EURUSD – Friday’s surge higher above trend line resistance from the 1.3285 highs in May at 1.2345 saw the euro close higher for the second week in succession. The 55 day MA at 1.2430 now becomes the next obstacle to a move to 1.2600. The bullish weekly candle from two weeks ago seems to be gearing the market up for a euro rally. It would take a move back below the1.2220/30 area, to undermine that scenario and retarget the 1.2150 area. The key level on a monthly close remains the 200 month MA at 1.2060, the July lows.
GBPUSD – long lower tails on the weekly candles suggest a fair amount of support, however upside remains limited while below the 200 day MA and resistance between 1.5740/80. Above here and we could see a move to 1.5910. Key support remains at the trend line support at 1.5450 from the 1.5270 lows and any push lower needs to hold to prevent a move back to 1.5270. Only a close below 1.5240 signals a risk of a return to the July 2010 lows at 1.4950.
EURGBP – Friday saw the single currency break the shackles of the 0.7880 area which suggests we could well see a push towards the 55 day MA at 0.7980 and trend line resistance at the same level from the February highs at 0.8505. To undermine this scenario we would need to see a push back below the 0.7880 area to retarget the 0.7820 area. As in EURUSD we’ve also seen two positive up weeks with the bullish weekly candle of two weeks ago suggesting limited downside in the short term.
USDJPY – the US dollar remains becalmed between support below 78.00, and resistance above 79.30. The cloud support at 77.30 and the May lows at 77.60 remaining a key level. As long as this holds the downside, the risk of a rebound remains quite high. A move above the 79.30 level brings the 80.00 level back into play and then by definition the main resistance at the top of the weekly cloud at 80.45.
US Jobs Data a Sight for Sore Eyes
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior Trader Tim Waterer)
The healthier looking US employment data came as a sight for sore eyes for financial markets, with the result motivating investors to recommence the search for yield.
It was a no-win situation for the US Dollar.
The better than expected job creation number reduced the appeal of safe haven currencies, while a tick up in the unemployment rate to 8.3% keeps QE3 in the picture. So whatever way you look at the numbers, the US Dollar was ultimately left out in the cold.
With little reason to buy US Dollars after the employment result, the Euro, gold and oil all made the best of the optimistic trading conditions to push higher as safe haven buying fell by the wayside. The US jobs result also seemed to inject the market a dose of patience with regards to ECB action, with traders now apparently willing to give Draghi more time to deliver on his ‘whatever it takes’ mantra. It is amazing what difference a day makes after the initial market temper-tantrum due to the ECB inaction on Thursday.
The US jobs numbers reignited a rally in all things ‘risk’, with the Australian Dollar (AUD) being one of the currencies best placed to prosper from the subsequent surge in equity markets and commodities. The AUD has so far stopped short of hitting 1.06 against the US however a move beyond this level could eventuate this week if the RBA signal a reluctance to move lower on rates and if domestic employment data on Thursday justifies a ‘wait and see’ mentality by the central bank. Conceivably the AUDUSD rate could reach 1.0670 in the coming days. Much will hinge on how long traders remain enamoured with the latest US employment figures.
The Australian share market quickly set about reversing Friday’s loss following the gains abroad on equity markets. Undoubtedly traders were heartened by the US employment report, with the weaker US Dollar and the resulting higher commodity prices providing a boon for our mining heavyweight stocks. RIO and BHP both did a uturn from Friday’s performance, while the banks and retailers also enjoyed a run higher with investors feeling decidedly rosier over the global state of play.