Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst) e Tim Waterer (Senior Trader) di CMC Markets
Per quanto sia stata piuttosto tiepida la reazione dei titoli più rischiosi alla decisione della Bank of Japan di ampliare il programma di acquisto di titoli e obbligazioni del Tesoro giapponese di ulteriori 10mila miliardi di yen, specie se paragonata al forte rally seguito alla mossa della Fed giovedì scorso, anche in queste ore si ha chiaramente una conferma di come le azioni delle banche centrali siano in grado di innalzare rapidamente il mood dei mercati, che attendono ora di vedere che cosa farà nelle prossime 24ore la People Bank of China.
Il timore è che, nonostante tutto questo attivismo, le speranze di riportare le economie sui binari della crescita possano risultare un gioco a somma zero. La Spagna ad esempio, che sulla base dei numeri dovrebbe fare ricorso agli aiuti ESM, potrebbe pagare a caro prezzo la sua riluttanza perchè quanto più aspetta tanti più soldi serviranno per rimetterla in sesto. L’oro – che ha guadagnato 5 dollari l’oncia sulla notizia della Boj – potrebbe apprezzarsi ulteriormente così come il Dollaro Usa (che – sostenuto anche dalle tensioni tra Cina e Giappone – ha rimandato lo yen a 79.15) mentre le sorti del Dollaro Australiano sono strettamente legate a quanto farà il metallo giallo.
L’Euro ha proseguito il suo ritracciamento contro il biglietto verde verso 1,3000 (il che lascia pensare che con 1,3170 si siano già raggiunti i massimi di periodo) e, sotto questa soglia, aspettiamoci di rivedere 1,2830. Possibile un ritorno a 1,6050 anche per il cross Sterlina-DollaroUsa mentre il cambio Euro-Sterlina prosegue verso 0,8000.
Bank of Japan joins the easing party
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
With concerns about a rising yen continuing to trouble Japanese policymakers and economic activity starting to slow, the Bank of Japan decided once again to try and deal with the problem of their appreciating currency, which is continuing to hurt the country’s exporters. Last week’s Fed action won’t have done the Japanese any favours, strengthening the yen further and the central bank has decided to respond early by adding another 10 trillion yen to its stimulus program, in order to try and mitigate the Fed’s actions, on its own currency as well as attempt to stimulate growth.
And so the Bank of Japan continues the easing merry go round that has been symptomatic of this financial crisis with central banks taking it in turns to try and ease their economies back to health with little or no effect, as it slowly becomes a zero sum game, and a race to the bottom.
In Europe the focus is once again likely to be on Spain and its current reluctance to commit itself to a bailout, despite new data yesterday showing that distressed loans increased once again in July to 9.86%, the highest levels since 1962. This equates to around €170bn in an economy where unemployment is rising and the economy is contracting. In June the Spanish government commissioned two reports, from Wyman and Berger which estimated that the banking sector needed €62bn, a figure that seemed unrealistic then, and seems totally unrealistic now.
The original banking bailout figure came in to the tune of €100bn and the final independent report on Spanish banks has yet to be released, it is hard to see how the Spanish government won’t need more money.The sums simply don’t add up and with money draining out of Spanish banks the longer the Spanish government leave a decision the more expensive it is likely to be.
The other economic event on the calendar today is the publication of the latest Bank of England minutes, if only to see whether or not in the departure of Adam Posen, whether David Miles has picked up the doves baton. Markets will pay particular interest to which way Posen’s replacement Ian McCafferty will lean in the doves’ vs. hawks’ debate, and in particular the tone he adds to the debate.
It is hard to imagine that he would be as dovish as Adam Posen, which suggests that the bank may well be less ready to turn on the monetary taps when the current program of asset purchases ends in November. The tone of the minutes will also be noteworthy given the unexpected rise in the July inflation numbers, which may have given some members pause with respect to the committee’s inflation expectations.
The minutes could also shed some light on early indications as to the success or otherwise, of the “funding for lending” scheme which started at the beginning of August. In the US in the wake of the Fed’s decision to by mortgage backed securities the latest housing starts figures are due for August with a rebound of 2.6% expected after July’s 1.1% decline. Building permits are expected to go the other way with a decline of 2%, after a surprise 6.8% rise in July.
EURUSD – the euro continued its slow drift lower towards the 1.3000 level which suggests we could well have seen the highs in the short term at 1.3170. The key resistance on the upside remains at 1.3235, trend line resistance from the 1.4940 highs of 2011. A move above 1.3240, targets 1.3495, the 50% retracement of the entire down move from 1.4940 to 1.2045. A move below 1.3000 could well see a move back to the 200 day MA at 1.2830 with only a close back below the 200 day MA suggesting a move back towards 1.2650. Key trend line support from the 1.2045 lows now lies at quite some way back at 1.2560.
GBPUSD – the highs this year at 1.6305 as well as the highs this week at 1.6275 remain a key level and a major obstacle to 1.6590, last years August highs. We could well see a pullback towards 1.6050, while below that we have trend line support at 1.5970 from the August lows at 1.5490. Only a break below 1.5860 has the potential to target 28th August lows at 1.5755. The long term trend line support lies at 1.5605 from the 1.5240 lows.
EURGBP – the euro continues to drift back towards the 0.8000 level after this week’s failure to get close to the 200 day MA at 0.8140. This remains the major obstacle to further gains. We now have minor support at the 0.8000 level, while a move below the 0.7950 level suggests a move towards the 0.7880 level. USDJPY – the US dollar continues to be underpinned by the tensions between China and Japan which have sent the yen lower towards trend line resistance at 79.15 from the 20 April highs at 81.80. The 200 day MA at 79.31 remains the main obstacle to a return towards the highs last month at 79.70. Any pullbacks should find support around the 78.20 level as markets look to create a base.
Asian Markets Find Their Groove on BOJ Stimulus
By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)
The scope of the stimulus measures announced by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) today caught the market a little off guard as evidenced by the sharp rise in the USDJPY rate and also the pronounced move higher by commodity prices. The BOJ announced it would increase the size of its asset purchases by 10 trillion yen to 80 trillion yen. Central bank action has been coming thick and fast in recent weeks and whilst the news of stimulus today from the BOJ is generally welcomed, it is the Peoples Bank of China that traders really want to hear from when it comes to concrete measures to kick start their economy.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has moved off its session lows in response to the BOJ announcement of additional stimulus, with the AUDUSD progressing beyond the 1.0450 level after earlier sinking to 1.0418 today. Performance of the AUD tonight will likely correlate with how far north the gold price moves during the offshore session.
What was looking like being a directionless session across Asia definitely received a reprieve in the form of the BOJ announcement. Gold moved around US$5 higher on the news and this was enough to assist the AUD. The Euro also took well to the news, moving around a quarter of a US cent higher. Market reaction by risk assets to the BOJ stimulus measures may have been only lukewarm when compared to the initial QE3 buying bonanza, however we have again seen how central bank pro-activity can quickly lift the mood of financial markets.
Following an indifferent start, the Australian sharemarket found its groove in the afternoon with the ASX200 reclaiming the 4400 level, and then some. The monetary stimulus measures announced by the BOJ were well received by commodities such as gold and oil which both turned higher, with these moves translating into reasonable gains for the local mining stocks. Attention will now turn to Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI data due tomorrow. If we indeed see another sub 50 print, just how far below this benchmark level the number comes in at may be key in determining how Asian bourses fare tomorrow.