M. Hewson: focus sugli stress test spagnoli e sul bilancio francese

Scritto il alle 10:35 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst) e Tim Waterer (Senior Trader) di CMC Markets

Dopo il varo della Finanziaria, rimane ancora da verificare se il governo spagnolo abbia fatto tutto il necessario per convincere l’Europa di avere fatto abbastanza in termini di misure per ridurre il debito in modo da non dover sottostare ad ulteriori restrizioni nel momento in cui andranno a chiedere gli aiuti internazionali. Pur tuttavia, già oggi potremmo assistere ad una verifica e capire se il tatticismo di Rajoy avrà portato acqua al suo mulino o se il rapporto finale sugli stress test bancari condotto da Oliver Wyman sarà pronto ad affermare il contrario, qualora risultasse che il fabbisogno degli istituti finanziari iberici si collocasse nella parte alta della forchetta.
Una seconda gatta da pelare arriva oggi dalla Francia dove Hollande dovrà presentare una manovra Finanziaria in grado di tappare un buco da 30 miliardi stando ben attento a non rimangiarsi le promesse elettorali. Lo spirito del mercato rimane in balia di questi fattori e, dopo aver rinunciato a parte dle terreno ripreso le scorse settimane, potrebbe chiudere la settimana in guadagno aggrappandosi per il momento all’esito positivo del varo della Finanziaria spagnola.
Ripiegamento del DollaroUsa nei confronti delle materie prime con l’oro in particolare pronto a superare i 1800 dollari l’oncia (è più una questione di “quando” e non più di “se”) sia sulla base di un presumibile rimbalzo delle commodity che grazie ala sua funzione di protezione del capitale in caso di movimenti inflazionistici. Iniseme alle azioni e alle materie prime prospettive più rosee anche per il Dollaro Australiano, che potrebbe tornare a 1,05. Anche l’Eurodollaro potrebbe proseguire il rimbalzo iniziato ieri sino a 1,3020 mentre sotto 1,2830 potrebbe rivedere 1,2650. Debolezza della moneta unica nei confronti della Sterlina con target ribassista a 0,7880. Verso 77,25 il cambio DollaroYen.

Spanish stress tests and French budget due

By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)

 

Yesterday’s much anticipated Spanish budget saw Spanish leaders announce that they would be looking to cut spending by €40bn in 2013. The budget also aimed to implement a whole host of reforms, including a budgetary oversight committee to oversee government spending.

Plans were also announced to introduce 43 new laws over the next six months which should keep the lawyers busy, while enacting a new tax on gambling of 20%, and revamping capital gains tax to cut speculation as well as enacting a tax on lottery winnings over €2,500. While the jury remains out on how effective these revenue predictions will be, the GDP projections remained fairly unrealistic, with projections that this year’s budget deficit would come in on target at 6.3% of GDP, which doesn’t really square with the Bank of Spain’s assessment of the Spanish economy earlier this week.

It now remains to be seen whether or not the Spanish government has done enough to convince EU leaders that they have done enough, so that when they do ask for a bailout, no new measures are imposed on them in return for the ECB’s help in keeping their borrowing costs down.

For all the Spanish governments financial jiggery pokery in putting yesterday’s budget together, today’s publication of the Wyman stress test report on Spanish banks which could well blow all of the carefully crafted calculations out of the water, if the numbers come in at the high end of expectations. 

Estimates vary, but the expectation is that the report will show that an injection of €60bn would be needed, which some in markets believe is likely to be nowhere near enough, given this week’s increase in non-performing loans to around €170bn. Once these events are out of the way the ball will once again reside in the court of Prime Minister Rajoy, conspicuous by his absence at yesterday’s press conference, as to the timing of any bailout request. It will also open the way for the anticipated announcement from Moody’s regarding Spain’s credit rating, which is due any day now.

Also due today is the latest French budget which will be a key test of President Hollande’s mettle after this week’s disappointing unemployment numbers.  Monsieur Hollande will somehow have to plug a €30bn budget hole against a backdrop of two successive quarters of stagnant growth, while at the same time keeping all his spending promises to get elected. The likelihood is he will go for tax increases with a 75% income tax on +€1m earners, which could well be counterproductive. 

EURUSD – once again the single currency managed to hold above the 200 day MA at 1.2830, rebounding from that level yesterday. It needs a push below 1.2830 to retarget the 1.2650 level with key trend line support from the 1.2045 lows now at 1.2635. Yesterday’s pullback could well extend back to 1.3020 given the slightly bullish daily candle. The bigger trend line resistance level remains from the 1.4940 highs at 1.3200 . Only a move above 1.3240, targets 1.3495, the 50% retracement of the entire down move from 1.4940 to 1.2045. 

GBPUSD – cable continues to trade in the range between support at 1.6140/50 and the larger resistance at 1.6300/10. The risk remains for a move back towards trend line support at 1.6050 from the August lows at 1.5490, targeting 1.5920. It needs a move above resistance at 1.6305 to target a move towards 1.6590, last years August high. Only a break below 1.5860 has the potential to target 28th August lows at 1.5755. The long term trend line support lies at 1.5630 from the 1.5240 lows. 

EURGBP – another lower low yesterday at 0.7925 keeps us on course towards the 0.7880 level via trend line support from the 0.7755 lows at 0.7905. Pullbacks should find resistance around the 0.7980 level. To restore upward momentum we need to see a bounce back through the 0.8050 area to retarget the highs two weeks ago. 

USDJPY – the continued inability to rally back through 78.00 keeps the pressure on for a move towards the lows earlier this month at 77.25. To stabilise in any meaningful way we need to take out trend line resistance at 78.95 from the 20 April highs at 81.80, as well as the 200 day MA at 79.32. The 200 day MA at 79.32 remains the main obstacle to a return towards the highs last month at 79.70.

 

Non-defensive Assets Enjoy Reversal of Fortune

By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)

Non-defensive assets have enjoyed a reversal of fortunes late in the week, with traders thankful for ‘small mercies’ such as the Spanish budget result. While the budget result from Spain was undoubtedly a step in the right direction, we are still far from reaching the ‘End Game’ on the entire Eurozone saga. Investor spirits may be buoyed momentarily but the budget result could soon be forgotten if Spanish yields start escalating again.

With the emergence of some good news stories in recent days, the US Dollar has given way to higher commodity prices. Gold is now appearing primed for a run towards US$1800 and it could get there either through a continuation of the general bounce in commodities or via an inflation-hedge trading approach.  Given that gold can be pushed higher via either of two different trading strategies it would almost appear that a move north of $US1800 is more a case of ‘when’ not ‘if’.

The Aussie Dollar story this week has closely mirrored that of both international equity markets and commodity prices. The headwinds against risk assets earlier in the week have receded in recent days, and this has opened up a path for the AUD to make its way back to 1.0450. Investor penchant towards safe haven currencies as we round out the week will decide whether the AUD has a legitimate look at 1.05 or conversely if it subsides to the 1.0375 region.

Trading appeared to be largely of the non-committal variety on the Australian sharemarket to end the week, with investors appearing unconvinced by the rally on US equities. With more time having elapsed since news of the Spanish budget was first announced, our market seemed to have a more measured reaction as evidenced by the trading pattern of the ASX200 today which was anything but jubilant. The fact that the Australian market did a u-turn yesterday to end higher also contributed to the indifferent showing of the local market today.

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