Forex Morning Comments: riflettori puntati sul mercato del lavoro statunitense
Dopo aver trovato sollievo negli ultimi indicatori macro americani, i mercati guardano ora al dato in uscita sui salari non agricoli di settembre come al momento clou della settimana, in grado di orientare gli umori della prossima ottava. Con il QE3 già avviato, infatti, non assisteremo più al classico “bad means good” scenario in cui risultati sul mercato del lavoro deludenti si traducevano automaticamente in rialzi degli indici di Borsa sulle attese di un espansione monetaria imminente: se oggi il trading range dell’azionario prenderà la rotta di un rialzo sarà perchè i dati sul lavoro hanno mostrato un recupero in corso.
Nell’ipotesi contraria, qualora si registrasse un ulteriore deterioramento dopo aver sparato le ultime cartucce , qualora si registrasse un ulteriore deterioramento del quadro occupazionale, la Fed potrà solo aumentare la quantità mensile dei suoi acquisti. Sullo sfondo rimane sempre l’Europa con al centro della scena il lungometraggio spagnolo, con il Governo che assicura di non avere bisogno di alcun salvataggio proprio mentre il Presidente della Bce lo incoraggia a richiedere l’intervento dell’ESM promettendo condizioni non onerose. Anticipando invece un dato positivo, i trader si preparano vendendo gli asset più difensivi in portafoglio e comprando quelli che incorporano un maggior rendimento quali le materie prime e , sul mercato forex vendendo Dollari Usa in favore, tra gli altri, di Euro e Dollaro Australiano. La moneta unica si accinge a testare 1,3040 prima e 1,3175 poi mentre potremmo assistere ad un’inversione di trend qualora si scendesse sotto 1,2960. Rimane invece inalterato lo scenario ribassista sul cambio Sterlina-DollaroUsa nonostante il rimbalzo di ieri a 1,6200.Vicino ai massimi di settembre a 0,8115 il cross EuroSterlina mentre il DollaroYen si porta verso la resistenza di 78,90.
Markets look to US jobs report
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
The main focus of attention today will be the release of the US September non farm payrolls number with expectations fairly high that we could well see an improvement in jobs growth to around 115k after the disappointment of the August numbers to 96k. While August’s weak number wasn’t necessarily the catalyst for last months bold move by the Fed to embark on its $40bn a month MBS program, it probably sealed the deal. Worries about the impending fiscal cliff, a Chinese slowdown and a deteriorating European outlook also played a part, as well as a frustration that Fed measures are not filtering down into the economy, according to last nights minutes.
The problem the Fed has now is that it has pretty much shot its bolt and that if the jobs numbers continue to deteriorate, the most they can now do is increase the monthly amount of purchases, in the hope the more money they throw at the problem, the more likely it will have an effect. There also appeared to be a certain amount of disquiet amongst other non voting Fed members apart from the lone dissenter on the voting committee Jeffrey Lacker. We have a fairly good idea of whom some of these members are, Charles Plosser being one, with the likelihood that the committee could become even more polarised if these new measures show no signs of improving the situation.
After the better than expected ADP numbers, expectations are for an improvement to 115k, with particular attention also on what any revision to the August number might be, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 8.2%.
Meanwhile back in Europe the final Q2 revision of Eurozone GDP is expected to be confirmed at -0.2%, while German factory orders for August are expected to fall 0.5%, which is likely to translate across negatively with respect to not only Germany’s Q3 growth numbers, but also Europe’s as well.
Spain continues to play its game of chicken with the market by insisting it does not need a bailout “at all” according to finance minister De Guindos, after the country managed to sell another €4bn worth of bonds yesterday, despite large hints from ECB President Draghi yesterday that they should consider asking for help, sooner rather than later, and that any conditions needn’t be onerous.
The Bank of Japan decided once again to adopt its tentative stance towards monetary policy by leaving rates unchanged as well as leaving its asset purchase program at Y80trn apparently impervious to the problems of Japanese exporters. With inflation remaining subdued it is difficult to make any sense of their caution stance.
EURUSD – yesterday’s break above 1.2990 opens up a test of the September highs at 1.3175 and trend line resistance at the same level, from the 1.4940 highs. We also have resistance at 1.3040 which is 61.8% retracement of the down move from 1.3175 to 1.2805. Any pullbacks need to stay above 1.2960 for this move to unfold, while the main support lies at the 200 day MA at 1.2825. Only a move above 1.3240, targets 1.3495, the 50% retracement of the entire down move from 1.4940 to 1.2045.
GBPUSD – yesterday’s pullback to 1.6200 keeps the downside risk intact, while above that the 1.6310 level remains the major resistance. Having carved out some support at 1.6060 this level needs to hold to prevent a deeper move towards 1.5915, 38.2% retracement of the up move from 1.5270. It needs a move above resistance and last weeks high at 1.6310 to target a move towards 1.6590, last years August high.
EURGBP – the euro has hit the 0.8050 area and this remains the next obstacle to be overcome to retest the September highs at 0.8115, and the 200 day MA. The 0.8000 area should now act as support while a break below retargets last week’s low at 0.7925, as well as trend line support from the 0.7755 lows at 0.7920, and 55 day MA.
USDJPY – this week’s break through 78.20 brings a test of the trend line resistance at 78.90 from the 20 April highs at 81.80, into view, as well as the 200 day MA at 79.32. Any weakness should find some support around 78.20 as well the 77.60 level. The 200 day MA at 79.32 remains the main obstacle to a return towards the highs in August at 79.70.
Markets Find Solace From Better Looking Indicators
By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)
Financial markets have found solace from better economic indicators out of the US in recent days, however the upcoming US Payrolls result will be the defining moment of the week. With QE3 now on the table, we are not going to see a ‘bad means good’ scenario where a poor jobs figure results in equities going higher on speculation that more quantitative easing will be on the way. If the recent trading range of equity markets is to extend further north, the US jobs market will need to start showing some signs of life.
The Australian Dollar has plenty of ground to make up after its slump this week, however the currency did set about making the best of the ‘risk-on’ conditions today by following Asian equity markets higher. The Euro, Oil and Gold all have had solid sessions with the US Dollar dipping lower as part of the move into risk assets, and this has enabled the AUD to progress back past 1.0250.
If we see the US jobs report come in on the higher end of expectations (forecast is for around 115k jobs created) then this should provide some comfort to traders who will be more likely to shun defensive assets and take on board those with the potential for higher yield.
The Australian sharemarket hit the weekly finish line with some zest, thanks largely to a return to form by commodity prices which increased the value of our Materials sector.
RIO in particular was a key contributor to the ASX200 performance, while elsewhere the large banking stocks also made solid headway. Just how far the Australian market can advance next week will be reliant on what influence the US jobs result has on global trading sentiment. Commodity price activity in the wake of the Non-farm Payrolls report will be a key factor for how our mining stocks perform in the early part of next week.