D. Land: I future statunitensi potrebbero spingere le piazze europee
Complice l’analisi impietosa del Fondo Monetario Internaizonale, il nervosismo che attraversa l’Europa continua a limitare ogni possibilità di rialzo, l’incertezza politica ed economica rende gli investitori più scettici sul fatto che si possa essere vicini ad un punto di svolta. Se a ciò si aggiunge la delusione circa i primi risultati trimestrali provenienti dagli Stati Uniti si capisce come ci siano pochi motivi per rallegrarsi. Anche il QEInfinity della Fed, visto in quest’ottica, sembra che non basti a supportare la tesi di un’inversione di tendenza. A voler vedere il bicchiere mezzo pieno, invece, pare che vi sia un miglioramento delle aspettative per quanto riguarda la Cina, un fattore che si riflette positivamente sui prezzi delle materie prime e delle divise ad esse collegate. Oltre a ciò, il mercato si sta preparando ad una stagione di trimestrali in ribasso, motivo per cui non si esclude che possa rimbalzare in acquisto qualora si registrino sorprese in positivo. In Australia l’aumento del numero dei disoccupati ha prodotto come reazione nuovi acquisti da parte degli investitori, certi ora di un prossimo taglio dei tassi a novembre.
US Futures May Provide Early Cheer for Europe Today
By David Land (Head of Analysis)
The nervousness throughout the European region continues to limit any upside. The uncertainty that is driven on both a political and economic level fails to provide confidence that there is a turning point for the region in the near future. The analysis from the IMF has been important for the direction that the market has taken in recent days.
I think it underlines just how many issues there are to be dealt with by policy makers. At the same time it’s a reminder of how slow the committee thinking will be to deliver solutions. I believe that investors are greatly frustrated by the politicisation of critical decisions that would benefit from a degree of altruism on the part of the countries making them.
The Asian session has been doggedly positive again in many areas. Futures in the US have improved significantly off their lows which may provide some early cheer for the European markets. The combination of flow on from the IMF reporting and US earnings season hangs over global markets for the most part and has impacted outside of equities. The oil price was sent lower in overnight trade but has rallied back to short-term resistance levels during the Asian session.
I think there has been some paring back of negative expectations for the outlook in China. Whilst this isn’t a switch back to sentiment of last year it’s a big improvement and we see this reflected in some of the currency and commodity markets. Keep in mind too that the market has been priming for a poor reporting season in the US so it wont take too much in the way of outperformance to provide a boost for US equity and wider sentiment that it impacts upon.
November Rate Cut Likely Due to Higher Unemployment
By Ben Taylor (Sales Trader, CMC Markets)
The Australian market has reversed its initial losses as the unemployment rate moved higher increasing the likelihood of a November rate cut. The unemployment numbers showed better than expected full time employment, as well as a rise in the participation rate and the unemployment rate.
The result conveys a soft labour market in the mix of waning growth both domestically and overseas. With unemployment on the rise, October’s rate cut was well and truly justified today. The percentage chance of a rate cut in November just got better. The easing bias is here to stay. Today’s result has helped our local market defy overseas leads and pushed us into positive territory despite an overwhelming case of macro woes. The warning signs are building from US companies as we head into the US reporting season.
Alcoa has downgraded its December quarter guidance and Chevrons announcement last night of lower earnings are examples of large companies currently struggling with the current slowdown. Open ended quantitive easing from the Federal Reserve seem to be doing little to lift the market’s belief that a turnaround is definite. Downgrades from the IMF and World Bank have spoilt the party lately while the continuous unrest in Europe ensures headlines focus on an untenable situation.