Market Commentary: gli investitori lasciano i porti sicuri
Mentre torna a crescere la propensione al rischio dettata da sviluppi positivi sia sul fronte delle trimestrali americane che su quello di un ormai prossima definizione dell’emergenza finanziaria spagnola (Madrid potrebbe chiedere l’intervento del fondo ESM), gli investitori lasciano i porti sicuri rappresentati soprattutto da Dollaro Usa e Yen per comprare nuovamente Euro, oro e petrolio. La moneta unica infatti è ora chiamata al test di 1,3075 contro Dollaro con resistenza chiave posta a 1,3175; contro la Sterlina, qualora oltrepassasse 0,8100, potrebbe riagguantare 0,8275.Anche il Dollaro australiano sembra una scelta scontata per i traders se si ritiene che vi sia la possibilità di una prosecuzione del rally azionario anche per le prossime settimane: unico pericolo per la moneta australe potrebbe essere rappresentato da un rallentamento del’economia cinese peggiore del previsto (dati Pil in uscita giovedì).
Cards Fall in Favour of Risk Assets
By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)
The cards have fallen back in favour of risk assets following positive developments in Europe and the US, with the decreased appeal of holding safe haven US Dollars allowing for moves to the upside from the Euro, gold and oil. In particular, a dose of good news on the Spanish front was quickly latched onto by investors who are increasingly growing tired of playing the waiting game on a potential bailout request.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced a return to form following events which were conducive to investment in higher yielding currencies. With stocks and commodities marching higher the AUD was a natural selection for traders wanting to position for a possible move higher in risk assets over coming weeks. Today the AUD has hit 1.03 with Asian markets following the upbeat lead of the US.
With ‘feelgood’ stories circulating over both Spain and the US economy, trading inclination has been to steer away from defensive currencies today and this has seen the AUD receiving solid buying flows as a result. Some buying conviction returned to the Australian markets following what was quite a positive narrative in relation to events in Europe and the US overnight. Key US earnings lifted Wall Street whilst mounting speculation that Spain will soon extend its hand for financial relief were welcome developments which propped up commodity prices as safe-haven demand subsided.
Mining giants BHP and RIO made the best of the positive trading conditions and this was the driving force behind the ASX200 mid-week surge witnessed today. Chinese GDP data due on Thursday looms large for the market, and whilst it has been a day of very smooth sailing for the Australian market, any new rumblings regarding Chinese growth slowing poses a threat of upsetting the applecart if the GDP print comes in on the low side. Chinese GDP is forecast to come in at 7.4% following the previous reading of 7.6%.
Stocks Rebound on Data as Defensives Continue to Retreat
By Colin Cieszynski (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets)
It’s been a very strong day for indices rallying on the back of another round of positive US earnings reports, and better than expected US industrial production. Sentiment toward Europe continues to improve on indications that Spain may seek a credit line from the ESM. USD continues to retreat while gold is rebounding. EURUSD has broken out over $1.3000 and is driving toward a retest of $1.3075. RSI suggests there’s a bit of room to run at the moment, key resistance looms near $1.3175.
EURGBP keeps bumping up against 0.8100 where a breakout would complete a bullish cup with handle bottom formation. Next measured resistance on a breakout appears near 0.8275 near prior support.
USDCAD looks poised for a big breakout. It has climbed out of a decling channel today. A break through $0.9900 would complete an ascending triangle base and signal a new uptrend where par could be tested initially.
AUDCAD – After two months, it looks like the pendulum is shifting back into AUD’s favour here. A move through $1.0150 would break the current downtrend and siganl a new move where $1.0275 could be tested initially.