Market Commentary: un’ondata di ottimismo spinge i mercati
Il sentiment di mercato sembra ormai aver svoltato l’angolo verso un’iniezione di fiducia: il mancato downgrading di Moody’s sul debito spagnolo, il miglioramento del mercato immobiliare Usa e i dati positivi sul Pil cinese sono tutti elementi che contribuiscono a rafforzare i settori che incorporano un rischio maggiore. La sensazione che la Cina stia evitando il temuto hard landing e che la Spagna costituisca un problema tutto sommato contenuto sostengono in questo momento la domanda in acquisto di beni a più alto rendimento come Euro, Corona norvegese e svedese e Dollaro australiano a discapito del Dollaro Usa e dello Yen. L’Aussie in particolare è segnalato in ipercomprato e, nonostante ci sia la possibilità di un ritracciamento a 1,0335, potrebbe rimbalzare verso 1,0410. Rimane invece sorprendentemente debole nei confronti delle altre commodity currency il Dollaro Canadese sull’ipotesi che un rallentamento della crescita potrebbe forzare la banca centrale a riconsiderare il tono poco accomodante. La crescente debolezza di oro e argento contro l’Euro segnala che il momento correttivo non è ancora terminato.
Wave of Optimism Lifts Market Confidence
By Ben Taylor (Sales Trader) and Colin Cieszynski (Senior Market Trader)
Market confidence seems to have turned a corner . US housing data is improving, Spain has avoided junk status and Chinese GDP has come out in line, while its industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment has all come out better than expected. The wave of optimism has ensured all sectors, bar the defensive healthcare sector, have enjoyed a rise today with the miners leading the charge.
The first signs of stabilisation in China are coming through. While it may be some time before growth starts to turn higher, many Chinese sectors are now showing evidence of a turnaround. This should hopefully stabilise Chinese growth reducing the risk of a hard landing and give us reason to buy up risk assets.
Avoiding junk status has affirmed Spain’s investment grade bond rating at BAA3. If Spain debt falls from investment grade they would be forced into a bail out, something they are desperately trying to avert. This is a big piece of today’s rally and continues to provide confidence to the market that Spain is somewhat contained for now.
The Aussie dollar is defying the markets upcoming expected cut and rallying as risk on takes hold. The Chinese data and reduced risks in Spain have given our dollar wings. Positive macroeconomic data in the US from higher than expected Housing Starts was neutralised by disappointing microeconomic news from tech giants IBM and Intel which reported lower than anticipated quarterly results.
The DOW was virtually flat closing up only 4.7 points higher. Although there was a stale mate between the macro and micro news last night, I expect the encouraging housing data to have a longer lasting effect in the market, resulting in a trickle down affect to the other sectors in the economy.
Moody’s decision not to drop the rating of Spain caused optimism in the financial markets in Europe. UK unemployment data was also positive with the Unemployment rate dropping to 7.9% from 8.1%. The market was expecting a downgrade and when this didn’t happen, investors were willing to place their assets into higher yielding instruments.
USD is being crushed as capital continues to flow back across the pond and into risk markets from the defensive stances taken last summer, with JPY being dragged down along with it. SEK, EUR NOK have been the main beneficiaries with GBP climbing at a slower pace.
AUD has been strong again today AUDUSD is screaming out of its base up throgh $1.0360. It’s getting RSI overbought and could slip back to test $1.0350 or $1.0335 in short term. Next upside resistance on trend appears near $1.0410 (50% retracement) or $1.30460 (62%).
CAD has remained surprisingly weak relative to other resource currencies on speculation that slowing economic growth could force the Bank of Canada to reconsider its hawkish tone. CAD has bounced back a bit in the afternoon. Gold and silver continue to rebound against the greenback but ongoing weakness against EUR indicates that their broader correction isn’t over yet.