Market Commentary: eurodollaro, per raggiungere 1,3495 bisogna sorpassare 1,324
Investitori alla ricerca di spiragli di ottimismo (in attesa del dato Ifo sulla fiducia degli imprenditori tedeschi e su quello dei prezzi alla produzione in Europa) in grado di far proseguire il rally delle borse oggi, dopo il rapido sell-off registrato ieri a causa del deterioramento della redditività della Corporate America e dello stato delle finanze in Spagna.
Le notizie positive provenienti questa mattina dalla Cina lasciano ben sperare in una crescita della produzione anche nel Vecchio Continente, per quanto non in grado di controbilanciare gli effetti negativi generati dalla delusione delle trimestrali Usa e soprattutto delle flebili previsioni di crescita per i prossimi mesi così come delineati dai manager negli ultimi giorni. Fattore che ha aperto gli occhi ai trader con un calo immediato della fiducia tradottosi in un decremento dei prezzi delle materie prime. Qualora il dato sulla produzione manifatturiera europea dovesse deludere le aspettative, sarebbe come gettare nuovo sale sulle ferite con la conseguenza prevedibile di un nuovo arroccamento degli investitori verso gli asset difensivi ancora per qualche giorno.
Sul mercato valutario gli ultimi avvenimenti non hanno per il momento impattato sull’Eurodollaro, ancora bloccato sotto la resistenza posta a 1,3175 e sopra il supporto a 1,2835: bisogna passare oltre 1,3240 per poter giungere all’obiettivo di 1,3495. Ulteriormente ribassista il trend SterlinaDollaroUsa che si proietta verso 1,5825 mentre sembra perdere forza l’Euro nei confronti della divisa inglese: la moneta unica potrebbe ora prendersi una pausa a 0,8110. Non mostra per ora segni di cedimento il biglietto verde nel cambio contro Yen: una chiusura settimanale sopra 79,80 potrebbe portare il cross a 81,00. Incerte le sorti del Dollaro Australiano, legate a doppio filo sia ad una possibile virata in negativo del market sentiment (nel qual caso subirebbe deflussi importanti) che alla nuova stance della sua banca centrale, meno propensa a tagliare nuovamente i tassi dopo gli ultimi dati sull’inflazione.
Markets set to open higher ahead of German IFO and bond auction
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
Investors will be hoping for some respite today after yesterday’s sharp sell-off in equity markets on concerns about continued deterioration in the Spanish economy, as well as disappointment emanating from disappointment about company earnings downgrades. The HSBC Manufacturing PMI data out of China this morning has provided some encouragement, coming in at 49.7, an improvement of the previous 47.9, however despite a jump in new orders the employment component remains weak.
It is to be hoped that today’s economic data out of Europe will do the same if there is any discernible improvement in the latest flash French, German and Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI’s for October which are expected to be nudged marginally upwards from the poor readings earlier this month. The French economy is a particularly worry given it is Europe’s second largest with the manufacturing PMI reading being especially poor dropping to 42.7, but it is expected to be nudged upwards to 43.9, while all the other measures from Germany and the Eurozone are expected to be adjusted upwards as well.
These numbers are likely to be of secondary importance to the latest German IFO figures which are expected to show some improvement in the business climate for the first time since March and could prompt some movement with any significant improvement likely to provide some support. Expectations are for an improvement to 101.60 in October, from 101.40.
Also of particularly interest will be ECB President Mario Draghi’s trip to the lion’s den of the German Bundestag to defend the ECB’s OMT bond buying program, which has drawn fire from the Bundesbank as well as some criticism from German lawmakers. After two recent failures in September Germany will be hoping to get away around €4bn of 10 year bonds this morning with the previous auction getting a yield of 1.52% with a bid to cover of 1.2.
We also have the culmination of the latest FOMC meeting in the US which isn’t expected to offer anything in the way of surprises so close to the US election, after the decision by the Fed to start open-ended easing to the tune of $40bn a month, until the unemployment rate comes down to the 7% level. There is a slim chance we might get some clues about what the Fed intends to do with respect to the imminent end of “operation twist” but other than that the meeting is likely to be a non-event.
EURUSD – the single currency has so far resisted all attempts to break above the September highs at 1.3175 and trend line resistance at 1.3122, from the 1.4940 highs. The pullbacks seen over the last two weeks have continued to find support above the 200 day MA now sited at 1.2835. There is also support at Friday’s lows at 1.3010/20 area. Only a move above 1.3240, targets 1.3495, the 50% retracement of the entire down move from 1.4940 to 1.2045.
GBPUSD – yesterday’s break below the 55 day MA at 1.5980 now opens up the possibility of a move towards the 200 day MA at 1.5825 as well as the September lows at 1.5820. To stabilise the pound needs to see a move back above the 1.6020 area to reopen a test towards trend line resistance at 1.6150, from the September highs at 1.6310.
EURGBP – the technical indicators are becoming a little mixed after last weeks break of the 200 day MA. Yesterday we saw the single currency post a bearish engulfing day suggesting we could well see a push towards the 200 day MA at 0.8110 in the event we are unable to push above 0.8162. Though the break of the 200 day is positive for the euro yesterday’s price action does suggest a pause for now, with a break of 0.8110 targeting 0.8070.
USDJPY – the break this week above the 200 day MA and the August highs, brings the June highs at 80.60 into view. We need to close above 79.80 on the week to open up a move to 81.00 which is the top of the weekly cloud. To sustain this move higher any pullbacks need to hold above the 79.20 area, otherwise we could well see a fall back towards 78.50.
Rebound Performance By the AUD
By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) enjoyed a nice rebound performance today after it took a bruising during the New York session. The rise today came in two stages, with the hot CPI reading and then the jump in Chinese Manufacturing data contributing to send the AUD back above the 1.03 level. However with US companies continuing to disappoint with earnings, a further correction in US equity performance will have traders leery of higher yielding currencies like the AUD with global growth questions lingering in light of the sub-par US data.
If the RBA was looking for a reason to pause on rates, they got one today in the form of the CPI data. Had we witnessed a CPI print on the low side then it would have virtually sealed the deal for a rate reduction in November. However the 1.4% CPI result for the quarter diminishes the scope for further easing with the RBA needing to be more mindful of balancing the inflation part of the equation. The chances of the RBA easing rates in November is now starting to look more like an evenmoney bet.
Heavy selling looked to be the order of the day, particularly early in the piece across Asian markets, however a rise in Chinese Manufacturing data provided some respite and gave stock indices reason to claw back some ground off the lows. On the Australian market, predictably it was the Energy and Materials sectors which fared worst in reaction to the overnight slide in commodity prices. The question marks posed by sluggish global growth on future resource demand had our large miners looking vulnerable today, however the encouraging Chinese data did stem the selling tide and limited downside moves.
The rise in the HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI to 49.1 was undoubtedly a welcome relief however this result on its own is not enough to offset the tenuous outlook for growth foreshadowed by Corporate America in recent days. US Corporate earnings have provided a reality check to traders and the slide in confidence can be witnessed in the price activity of commodities such as crude oil which has spiralled south. Manufacturing PMI data due out of Europe this evening could add to the woe if it comes up short, in which case the defensive mindset of the market could be on display for a few more days yet.