Market Commentary: trader alla ricerca di segnali positivi
I risultati delle trimestrali americane continuano a scoraggiare la fiducia degli investitori causando un fondato timore che – qualora giungessero indicatori economici positivi – la “dispensa” possa apparire ormai vuota e una generale riconsiderazione dei livelli degli indici azionari (dove si trovano ora ma soprattutto dove dovrebbero essere) possa fiaccare l’attuale trend rialzista dei mercati. I trader sono alla disperata ricerca di un qualsiasi segnale positivo in mancanza del quale potremmo presto vedere un mercato moderatamente rialzista come quello di questa settimana prendere la piega di un deciso e pronunciato ribasso.
I prezzi delle materie prime sono continuamente soffocati dai timori sullo status quo della domanda globale dopo aver visto incepparsi la macchina degli utili Usa che non prospetta un quadro economico che scoppia di salute avvicinandoci al 2013. In questo contesto assumono ancora maggiore importanza le attese relative al dato preliminare dle Pil Usa del terzo trimestre e quelle per la disoccupazione spagnola che potrebbe toccare il record del 25%: dalla reazione di Wall Street di oggi si potrà desumere una chiara indicazione circa quello che sarà l’andamento per la prossima settimana (stando agli ultimi indicatori, non ci aspettiamo un dato fantastico sulla crescita Usa).
Sul mercato valutario l’eurodollaro non è riuscito a mantenere 1,3030 aumentando le probabilità di un ritorno a 1,2835 mentre 1,2880 rimane la soglia da non oltrepassare al ribasso per scongiurare un ritorno a 1,2650. Prosegue il rally della Sterlina sul Dollaro a 1,6140 con test a 1,6310. La moneta unica scivola anche nei confronti del pound aprendo al rischio di un ritorno a 0,7960 mentre si rafforza il biglietto verde: nei confronti dello Yen potrebbe ritornare a 80,60. Perde grip il Dollaro Australiano con la possibilità di perdere il livello di 1,03 dopo che gli investitori asiatici si sono messi sulla difensiva a causa della delusione proveniente da Apple e in preparazione di un possibile dato negativo sul Pil Usa.
Spanish unemployment set to hit 25% ahead of US Q3 GDP
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
Yesterday’s better than expected rise in UK Q3 GDP by 1% had some of the gloss taken off it by the news that US car giant Ford would be closing two UK production plants with the loss of 1,400 jobs, as the company sought to stem the losses from its European operations. The job losses highlight the problems faced by the UK economy and the effects of the problems going on in Europe as the continent strives to get on top of the sovereign debt crisis which is slowly suffocating the European economy.
The problems being experienced by French car manufacturer Peugeot are another case in point as that company comes under pressure from the French government to hold back from the closure of some of its French operations, as it haemorrhages cash on a daily basis. Unfortunately due to the slowing European economy the demand for all these vehicles just isn’t there at the moment and judging by some of this week’s woeful economic data it would appear that the problems are getting worse, with even Germany’s economy feeling the effects of the economic slowdown after this week’s latest PMI manufacturing data, showed a much sharper contraction than markets had expected.
The problem of rising unemployment in Europe is once again in the spotlight today with the release of Q3 Spanish unemployment numbers which is expected to rise from 24.6% to hit the 25% mark. After the surprise of yesterday’s better than expected UK Q3 GDP number attention turns across the pond to the release of the first indication of US Q3 GDP numbers with similar expectations of an improvement from the numbers seen in Q2.
While the improvement is not likely to be as large as the UK’s number, expectations are high given some of the recent data from the US that we could well see an increase from Q2’s 1.3% to 1.9%. Any number less than a 1.9% rise will likely raise concerns that despite the Fed’s best measures to help stimulate the economy, concerns about inaction with respect to the upcoming US fiscal cliff is starting to have a chilling effect on the US economy in the lead-up to next month’s US Presidential elections.
EURUSD – yesterday’s rally faltered at 1.3030 slipping back once again towards the 1.2920 lows of earlier this week. Expectations remain for a move towards the 200 day MA at 1.2835, as well as trend line support from the 1.2045 lows at 1.2880. This remains the key level supporting further gains; otherwise we could well see a quick return to 1.2650. On the upside the main resistance remains at trend line resistance 1.3110, from the 1.4940 highs. Only a move above 1.3240, targets 1.3495, the 50% retracement of the entire down move from 1.4940 to 1.2045.
GBPUSD – yesterday’s cable move managed to climb back towards the 1.6140/50 area and trend line resistance from the September highs at 1.6310, however it is currently struggling to overcome it, though a break higher is likely to suggest a retest of 1.6310. This resistance remains the main obstacle to further gains keeping alive the prospect of a move back towards the 1.5820 area in the longer term, on a break below 1.5910.
EURGBP – the failure of 0.8070 to hold sure enough saw the move to 0.8020 unfold fairly rapidly and with it open up the risk of test of 0.7960, trend line support from the 0.7755 lows. Resistance can now be found at 0.8070 while the 200 day MA at 0.8110 also becomes major resistance on any pullbacks, while behind that the tweezers top at 0.8160 should also act as significant resistance.
USDJPY – the push back above the 80.00 level now opens up the June highs at 80.60. We need to close above 79.80 on the week to open up a move to 81.00 which is the top of the weekly cloud. To sustain this move higher any pullbacks need to hold above the 79.20 area, otherwise we could well see a fall back towards 78.50.
Positive Economic Drivers Few and Far Between
By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)
The cupboard is starting to look a little bare when it comes to positive economic drivers for financial markets, and the effect is a stalling of upside momentum. US corporate earnings continue to deflate investor confidence and cause a reassessment of where major stock indices are currently at and where they should be, which is sapping the market of buying impetus at present.
In short, traders are starting to get desperate for a feel good economic indicator from somewhere, and if one does not arrive soon the soft patch in markets witnessed this week could develop into a more pronounced downturn. Commodity prices continue to be stifled by global demand concerns with US Corporate earnings season not exactly painting a picture of economic health for the coming year. As such, oil remains particularly vulnerable given the absence of demand concerns from seemingly anywhere around the globe at this stage and the price movements in In the last week reflect this.
The AUD was in sliding mode today with investors across Asia taking on a defensive mindset after the earnings miss by Apple, as well as the fact that the US GDP print tonight could create an extension of the current risk-off environment through to next week if we get a result lower than the forecast. Generally today, the AUD followed Asian bourses lower with traders instead opting to buy the lower yielding Greenback. This evening I expect the AUD to track a path similar to US equities. If we have another session of apprehensive trading the AUD wil likely lose grip of the 1.03 handle.
Australian equities were in reverse gear to end the week with traders adopting a guarded approach after another round of disappointing US corporate earnings. The ASX200 was unable to maintain its status above the 4500 level given the negative headwinds which hit our market from offshore this week. How US GDP data shapes up this evening will likely shape sentiment heading into next week, but if recent indicators are anything to go by the result on US growth will likely not be fantastic so the recent weakness may extend to next week.