Market Commentary: gli operatori scommettono sulla conferma di Obama

Scritto il alle 11:23 da cmcmarkets

Mentre tutta l’attenzione viene calamitata dall’ipotesi di una vittoria risicata alle presidenziali americane, gli investitori più agguerriti sembrerebbero muoversi nella direzione di una riconferma alla Casa Bianca di Barack Obama stando almeno alle ultime indicazioni di mercato. Pur tuttavia, oggi aspettiamoci di vedere gli stessi volumi modesti registrati ieri: continuano infatti le preoccupazioni legate all’esito delle trattative del governo greco per convincere Parlamento e opinione pubblica a votare nuove misure di austerity, per quanto le probabilità di un interruzione dell’esecutivo siano piuttosto alte.
Se lo stato delle finanze elleniche non gode di buona salute certamente non sta meglio il Vecchio Continente nel suo complesso: oggi i numeri sulla produzione manifatturiera di ottobre dovrebbero mostrare un’economia ancora in contrazione con attese di un calo del dato sugli ordini industriali anche in Germania. Per quanto riguarda la Gran Bretagna, se si confermeranno le aspettative di un ulteriore calo della produzione industriale e manifatturiera la Sterlina potrebbe manifestare ulteriore debolezza prima della decisione sui tassi della BoE di giovedì.
Nessuna sforbiciata sul costo del denaro da parte della RBA australiana che sta ancora monitorando gli effetti delle ultime riduzioni dei tassi, tanto che non appare più così scontato lo scenario di un altro taglio prima di Natale (con effetti immediati sul Dollaro australiano ch si è subito rafforzato). Sul fronte valutario l’Eurodollaro conferma il trend ribassista dopo aver chiuso ieri sotto 1,2835 ora il target è 1,2650 mentre qualsiasi rimbalzo dovrà superare ora 1,2840 per affermarsi; Sterlina chiamata al test di 1,5910 contro Dollaro mentre la moneta unica mantiene la posizione di 0,7990 nei confronti del pound. Si conferma invece la forza del biglietto verde contro Yen: fino a 79,75 il rally non è pregiudicato.
 

European Services PMI expected to remain weak ahead of US vote

By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)

 

While all the attention of markets is directed on todays too close to call US Presidential election, some of the smart money appears to be expecting a narrow Obama win if last night’s late stock market recovery is any indication, with Europe’s markets set to open higher this morning. Whatever happens today the semblance of an outcome is unlikely to be known much before Wednesday so markets could well get a similar day to yesterday’s low volumes.

As doubts about Greece being able to agree on a budget once again start worrying investors the Greek Prime Minister right on cue starts banging the warning drum about the catastrophic consequences of a Greek exit from the euro, if the new budget is not passed and the next tranche of bailout money released.

While such a scenario would be undoubtedly serious, catastrophe seems a strange description for a country in its fifth year of a depression, with no clear exit route out.  If that’s not a catastrophe I don’t know what isn’t. In any case the fragmentation within the fragile coalition government already suggests that even if the budget makes it through parliament, the opposition within the country to the measures will probably bring about the fall of the government soon afterwards.

While Greece is undoubtedly in a depression, events elsewhere in Europe point to a recession in Q4 with the release of the final October services PMI numbers for Spain, Italy, France and Germany as well as the Eurozone composite number.  Expectations are for 40.2, 44.5, 46.2 and 49.3, while the composite number is expected to be confirmed at 45.8, all firmly in contraction territory. The Spanish figure is particularly troubling given that Spanish unemployment jumped sharply in October by 128k, well above the 90k estimated. German factory orders are also expected to decline 0.5% in September.

There appears to be a growing belief that the Bank of England may hold back from further stimulus at this week’s MPC meeting, however the economic data over the past week is likely to make it very much an each way decision. Yesterday’s October services PMI was a disappointment despite staying in expansion territory at 50.9, and was the lowest figure since December 2010. Retail sales numbers from the British Retail Consortium were similarly disappointing declining 0.1% from a year ago, missing expectations of a 1.3% rise. If today’s industrial and manufacturing production numbers for September are similarly disappointing, and there is every indication they will be, then we could see some sterling weakness ahead of Thursday’s decision. Expectations are for a fall of 0.6% in industrial production, on a month to month basis, while manufacturing is expected to show a decline of 0.8%.

Overnight the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged surprising the markets who had expected a cut and sending the Australian dollar sharply higher.  Having only just cut rates in October it seems likely that despite concern about higher prices the bank is waiting for the effects of last month’s cut to feed through into the economy.

EURUSD – Yesterdays close below the 200 day MA at 1.2835 and below 1.2800 shifts the focus towards the 1.2650 level and the 100 day MA. Any rebound is likely to find resistance at the 1.2835/40 level, while a recovery above 1.2900 is needed to stabilise and target last week’s high at 1.3000.

GBPUSD – we saw the pound find some support at the 1.5950 level yesterday, but we remain on course for a test towards 1.5910 and 38.2% retracement of the 1.5270/1.6310 up move. Below that we also have the 200 day MA at 1.5845, a break of which could well target further rapid declines. The pound needs to get above 1.6080 to open up a move back towards last week’s high at 1.6180. 

EURGBP – trend line support at 0.7990 from the 0.7755 lows has held thus far while a break below this support targets 0.7955 50% retracement of the up move from 0.7755 lows to the 0.8165 highs. A recovery above 0.8030 is needed to retarget last week’s high at 0.8075.

USDJPY – we saw the US dollar slip back yesterday, and we could slip back as far as 79.75 without undermining the prospect of a move higher. This level coincides with cloud support with the potential to move towards 81.80 at the top of the cloud initially. Below 79.75 retargets 79.20.
 

 
Has the RBA Finished Cutting Rates?

By Ric Spooner (Chief Market Analyst, CMC Markets)
 

The market consensus that there would be another rate cut prior to Christmas is likely to be altered by today’s RBA statement. After deciding not to cut rates today, the Governor’s statement falls short of the easing bias that allows investors to assume a pre-Christmas cut is in the bag. In last month’s statement the bank noted that it will be important for some other components of demand to strengthen as the mining investment cycle peaks.

This time around the Governor simply noted that the Board will be monitoring strength of the other components as the peak approaches. Taken together with the fact that the Board noted some signs of past rate cuts already having effect, it is possible that the RBA won’t cut rates again unless it sees further signs of deterioration in global or domestic demand.  While the Australian Dollar has remained relatively strong despite expectations of further rate cuts, today’s announcement may see some near term strength in the Aussie.

When investors return from Melbourne cup parties tomorrow, we may also see some nervousness about consumer discretionary and building industry stocks where the market has been looking forward to a more aggressive rate cutting program.

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