Market Commentary: Obama confermato presidente, ora il focus si sposta sul fiscal cliff
E’ con un senso di sollievo che l’Europa questa mattina ha accolto il risultato delle elezioni presidenziali americane che ha riconfermato per la seconda volta Barack Obama alla Casa Bianca: l’incertezza delle ultime settimane infatti lascia ora il posto alla continuità politica e alla familiarità con le scelte del presidente della prima economia mondiale, per quanto le incertezze legate al fiscal cliff potrebbero mantenere una certa volatilità sui mercati. Benchè saranno le notizie provenienti dagli Usa a dominare il trading almeno nella prima parte della seduta, non dimentichiamo che oggi anche l’Europa sarà un osservato speciale: ad Atene infatti il Parlamento dovrebbe votare l’ennesimo piano di austerity confrontandosi con le proteste dei contestatori fuori dai palazzi che sperano di riuscire ad evitare almeno l’implementazione delle misure richieste dalla troika ad un’economia giunta ormai al quinto anno di recessione.
La convergenza verso il basso delle economie “core” dell’Europa (che si avvicinano così ai parametri dei cosiddetti Paesi periferici) potrebbe essere confermata oggi da dati sulla produzione industriale tedesca di settembre e le nuove stime del Pil dell’Eurozona che non annunciano nulla di positivo e potrebbero predire una contrazione dell’1,5% dell’economia spagnola. Sull’Eurodollaro il target rimane quello di 1,2650: per configurare un rimbalzo occorre tornare sopra 1,2900; test ribassista a 1,5910 anche per il cambio Sterlina-DollaroUsa, mentre un’inversione di tendenza si avrebbe solo sopra 1,6080. Il Dollaro Usa tiene 79,90 contro Yen e da qui potrebbe muovere verso 81,80. Si rafforza il Dollaro australiano che, a seguito dell’inazione della RBA, potrebbe raggiungere 1,06 entro i prossimi mesi.
Obama wins, while Greece parliament gets set to vote on austerity
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
As it slowly became apparent that the outcome of the US election was going Obama’s way the US dollar slowly started to slide back after the strength of recent days as markets slowly adjusted to the fact that there would be continuity with respect to the economic policies of the last four years. What it doesn’t change is the problems facing the US economy, and the roadblock that is the fiscal cliff.
Once the euphoria of an Obama win has died down, this is likely to be the one thing that markets and investors focus their attention on. It is therefore with a sense of relief that Europe’s markets look set to open higher as the uncertainty of recent days and weeks looks set to be replaced with continuity of policy and familiarity with the same custodian of the world’s largest economy.
While events in the US are bound to dominate trading today events in Europe are also likely to be keenly watched with particular attention once again focussed on Athens as Greek lawmakers once again look to vote on yet another austerity budget against a backdrop of striking private and public sector workers outside the parliament building, hoping to influence the vote against the implementation of yet more austerity on a country currently undergoing its fifth year of recession.
Splits have already manifested themselves within the Greek collation government with the Democratic Left refusing to back some of the measures; while there have also been splits in the other parties, Pasok and New Democracy. If the measures are passed which seems probable, if only narrowly, that won’t be the end of the story, as the EU, IMF and ECB still need to deal with the problem of Greece’s debt sustainability which still hasn’t been addressed. This also leaves the problem of trying to implement the deeply unpopular measures which given Greece’s track record could well be a problem.
In economic data from Europe out yesterday we saw the beginnings of a convergence between the core economies and the peripheral economies in terms of the direction of the data. This would be a good thing if it was being driven by a recovery of the peripheral data towards the core economies, but unfortunately it isn’t. It is being driven by a rapid deterioration in both Germany and France’s economic data as their economies slip into the mire of contraction with the economies of Italy and Spain, as economic activity slows across the board as contagion fears hit output in the core economies.
Yesterday’s German factory orders data was a shocker, falling 3.3% in September and today’s data is also expected to reflect this new reality with German Industrial production for September set to fall back 0.4%. Eurozone retail sales are expected to show no change in September as consumers remain reluctant to spend money against a back drop of slowing growth. The European commission is also expected to release its latest economic forecasts for Europe’s beleaguered economies and they aren’t expected to be good. Reports from a Spanish newspaper have suggested that the EU has predicted that the Spanish economy will contract 1.5% three times the Spanish government’s estimate.
EURUSD – this week’s close below the 200 day MA at 1.2835 shifts the focus towards the 1.2650 level and the 100 day MA. A rebound needs to overcome the 1.2900 level to stabilise and target last weeks high at 1.3000.
GBPUSD – the pound continues to find support just above the 1.5950 level, but we remain on course for a test towards 1.5910 and 38.2% retracement of the 1.5270/1.6310 up move. Below that we also have the 200 day MA at 1.5845, a break of which could well target further rapid declines. The pound needs to get above 1.6080 to open up a move back towards last week’s high at 1.6180.
EURGBP – trend line support at 0.7990 from the 0.7755 lows continues to hold thus far while a break below this support targets 0.7955 50% retracement of the up move from 0.7755 lows to the 0.8165 highs. A recovery above 0.8030 is needed to retarget last weeks high at 0.8075.
USDJPY – the US dollar has slid back to 79.90 just shy of the 79.75 cloud support. This level needs to hold to target a move towards the cloud peak at 81.80. Only below 79.75 undermines the bullish scenario and retargets 79.20.
US Vote Counting Has Asian Markets Biding Time
By Tim Waterer (Senior trader, CMC Markets)
During Asian trading hours, US Futures have performed a u-turn with the vote counting-process underway. The volatility stemming from the US election is having a measurable impact on markets and one only has to look at the gold price movements since last Friday. Market volatility has been ratcheted up several notches throughout the ‘pointy’ end of the election process and we still have that not so small matter of the US Fiscal cliff to deal with. Market turbulence is not likely to end with the election finish line.
The Australian Dollar continues to trade in a chipper mood following the RBA’s contentedness to sit tight on interest rates, while the moves higher by key commodities like gold and oil are underpinning the AUD’s tenure above the 1.04 level. The AUD was able to shake off previous rate cuts quite well so this recent non-action by the RBA does provide the currency with a platform to push for 1.06 over the coming month. This scenario would be reliant on equities not entering a soft patch in response to the US election as the AUD is still ultra sensitive to risk-off events.