Market Commentary: focus su fiscal cliff e Eurogruppo

Scritto il alle 11:26 da cmcmarkets

I toni più concilianti rispetto alla possibilità di arrivare ad un accordo sul tema del Fiscal Cliff sembrerebbero giocare a favore di un ritorno della fiducia, per quanto alcuni elementi contribuiscano a controbilanciare il quadro: domani l’Eurogruppo dovrà decidere come continuare a gestire il debito greco e se rilasciare una nuova tranche di aiuti piuttosto che addivenire ad una ristrutturazione con conseguenti perdite per i detentori di titoli greci, giovedì gli americani festeggeranno il giorno del Ringraziamento chiudendo in anticipo la settimana. Per quanto le parole dei due schieramenti lascino la porta aperta ad una risoluzione del tema fiscale, finchè non sarà raggiunto un consenso vero e proprio le probabilità di movimenti ribassisti sono ben più sostenute di quelle relative ad un rialzo.
Permangono infatti tanti e tali dubbi da mantenere il Dollaro americano ben supportato almeno per il momento. I trader della moneta unica attendono le news di questi giorni sulle sorti della Grecia: a seconda di ciò che si deciderà l’Eurodollaro potrebbe scendere sotto 1,26 o risalire sopra 1,28, posto che un rimbalzo vero e proprio si avrebbe solo qualora si superassero gli 1,29. Ancora in trading range il cambio Sterlina-Dollaro Usa che potrebbe registrare un rimbalzo a 1,5900. Nuovamente rialzista il quadro in cui si muove il DollaroYen: sopra 81,80 si aprirebbe la strada per un ritorno  a 84,00. L’eventuale rimbalzo che dovesse essere registrato dagli indici Usa quest’oggi potrebbe riportare il Dollaro Australiano sopra 1,04.

 

Big week for Europe with Greece centre stage – again

 

By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)

 

Last Friday saw US stocks pull off their lowest levels of the week after some encouraging signs from an initial meeting between the US President and Congressional leaders, before the President headed off for an Asian tour. While the early signs of progress are encouraging there remains a long way to go in what will be a holiday shortened week for the US ahead of Thanksgiving and the busiest shopping day of the year the day afterwards, Black Friday. 

The late bounce in the US should translate into a positive European open this morning in a week where the same seemingly intractable problems remain, with respect to Greece and the sharp slowdown in growth in the euro area economies, likely to be reinforced by the latest PMI’s which are due later this week.  With that in mind we see yet another Eurogroup meeting where once again the thorny subject of Greece’s debt sustainability and the release of the next aid tranche will once again be top of the agenda tomorrow.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde appears to have undergone an epiphany with respect to Greece’s finances for her constant calls for “reality” over “wishful thinking” when it comes to this subject putting her on the opposite side of the argument to Eurogroup head Juncker, with their spat last week still fresh in the memory, amid concerns that the IMF could well step away from further involvement in Greece’s affairs.  While her sudden conversion is timely, it would have been much better served months ago, and is probably driven by the IMF’s main backers, the US as well as other key players like, Brazil, China and Russia who want European leaders to start taking responsibility for the on-going state of uncertainty, which has proved so toxic for investor sentiment the past few months.

Last week we started to see the first indications within EU circles of an acknowledgement that write-down were likely if not inevitable, when ECB member Coure was followed quickly by Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann when they both stated that it was inevitable that Greece would need a debt haircut, while Weidmann added a caveat that it should only be considered after tough reforms had been implemented, in a form of quid pro quo. Mr Weidmann could well elaborate further on these comments when he speaks later this morning at the 15thEuro Finance week in Frankfurt.

Anything like this would still be a problem for the ECB, which has insisted all along that this would be tantamount to monetary financing, and thus illegal under its charter, though they are increasingly coming under pressure to forego the profits in their Greek debt purchases in an attempt to bring down Greece’s liabilities.  While this new realism appears to be a start the politicians still appear to be indulging in “wishful thinking” and don’t appear to be listening with German Finance Minister Schaeuble once again insisting that any reductions in Greek debt are legally unworkable, while ESM chief Regling also insisted that Greece would not get debt relief.

EURUSD – last week’s failure to overcome 1.2825 and the 200 day MA saw the euro slip back on Friday, dropping back to 1.2690, just shy of the 1.2650 level and 100 day MA. The next support comes in at 1.2605 which is 50% retracement of the 1.2045/1.3170 up move. A rebound needs to overcome the 1.2900 level to stabilise and target 1.3000.

GBPUSD – despite dropping briefly below the 200 day MA at 1.5850 the lack of momentum prompted a rebound back towards 1.5900. To push conclusively lower we would need to see a move towards and break below 1.5790 trend line support from the 1.5270 lows as well as 1.5660. Rebounds need to get back above the previous support level at 1.5960 level to retarget last week’s high at 1.6050. 

EURGBP – last weeks break above 0.8030 failed to push beyond the 31st October highs at 0.8075 and the 200 day MA at 0.8084. It needs a move back below 0.8000 to suggest a revisit of the lows this month at 0.7955. 

USDJPY – the next and key resistance lies at the 81.80 area a break of which could be the catalyst for a move towards the March highs above 84.00. Last week also saw the US dollar close above the weekly cloud for the first time since April, which should be bullish. The 79.75 level should now act as support; otherwise we’ll end up heading back towards the November lows at 79.00.

 

 

Traders give the ‘sell’ button a rest following more positive Washington tone

 

 

By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)

 

 

 

With the rhetoric from Washington having struck a more conciliatory tone, financial markets have stabilised with traders giving the ‘sell’ button a rest at least momentarily. However, while talk that the two parties are coming closer together will settle some market nerves, until a deal is inked the downside risks of the market still exceed those to the upside by a very wide margin.  There is enough remaining doubt over the fiscal cliff discussions to keep the safe-haven USD well supported until a concrete outcome is reached. Traders of the Euro will be awaiting news this week on the next aid package for Greece, with this decision potentially causing a break to below 1.26 or above 1.28 depending on the outcome.

Today the AUD has grinded higher with sentiment across Asia showing some improvement from last week. The AUDUSD rate has moved around a quarter of a cent higher with buying of the US Dollar receding a little following more optimistic comments from Washington. The strength of US equity market performance tonight will impact the AUD’s attempt to reclaim 1.04, with the currency likely to follow the direction of the S&P500 regarding tendency of traders to adopt risk or safe haven assets. Attention locally will turn to the RBA minutes tomorrow as traders try and assess the likelihood of further RBA rate cuts.

Asian markets exhibited a calmer tone to start the week with the major bourses in the region ticking higher thanks to what is seen as more positive developments regarding the fiscal cliff talks. Australian shares advanced in rather measured fashion, with the market still showing signs of fatigue following the near 3% slump experienced last week. The Materials and Energy sectors responded best to a bounce back in commodity prices, however financial stocks in the main were less enthusiastic to kick off the week. It seems traders are going to require further convincing from Washington in order for a more sizable market rebound to occur.

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