M. Hewson: Moody’s taglia il rating francese, il focus torna su Atene

Scritto il alle 11:20 da cmcmarkets

Dopo la perdita della tripla A anche da parte dei Moody’s la Francia potrebbe presto subire anche il downgrading da parte di Fitch, che ha già il Paese in outlook negativo. Nonostante non possa cambiare niente in termini di prospettive di crescita, il taglio di credito potrebbe riservare sorprese amare per il sistema bancario francese, a rischio di downgrading esse stesse e probabilmente costrette a pagare maggiori interessi sul denaro preso a prestito a causa appunto del basso merito di credito.
Un argomento che certamente contribuirà ad alzare i toni nel corso dell’ Ecofin che si apre oggi e che vede in agenda lo spinoso tema di ulteriori aiuti alla Grecia. Al momento vige parecchia incertezza circa il possibile esito dell’incontro: da una parte l’Unione Europea sembrerebbe disponibile a staccare un altro assegno da 44 miliardi di euro in cambio dell’implementazione di alcune manovre mentre il FMI difficilmente potrebbe spostarsi dalla linea di intransigenza assunta giorni orsono e che vorrebbe una risoluzione definitiva (ristrutturazione del debito con perdite in conto capitale) una volta per tutte. In mancanza di una decisione netta, aumentano le probabilità di un finanziamento parziale.
Le buone notizie provenienti dagli Usa circa un rinnovato vigore del mercato immobiliare sono la prova che la politica di stimoli monetari della Fed sta fornendo il carburante per la crescita, mentre il compromesso che verrà probabilmente raggiunto tra Democratici e Repubblicani sul Fiscal Cliff dovrebbe far diminuire i livelli di incertezza che ancora gravano sugli investitori. Tutti elementi che potrebbero contribuire a dare una scossa positiva al mercato, immaginando anche un calo della volatilità nelle prossime sedute in vista del giorno del Ringraziamento.
Sul fronte valutario l’Aussie è stato classificato dal FMI come “official reserve currency” a riconoscimento dell’accresciuta importanza nel panorama delle divise, un elemento tradizionalmente di supporto alle quotazioni; Eurodollaro potrebbe muovere verso 1,2850 con supporto a 1,2700. La Sterlina deve tornare sopra 1,5960 per mettere in obiettivo 1,6050; in risalita anche l’Euro nei confronti della Sterlina: sopra 0,8080 avvicinerebbe l’area a 0,8165. Sul cambio Dollaro Yen l’area di 81,80 rimane l’ostacolo principale prima di tornare a massimi di marzo (84).

France hit by Moody’s downgrade, ahead of Greece decision

 

 

By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)

 

Ten months after ratings agency Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s ratings agency pulled the trigger on France’s triple A rating last night, downgrading it to Aa1 with a negative outlook citing an uncertain fiscal outlook along with a gradual sustained lack of competitiveness and deteriorating economic prospects.

The agency also warned that the ability of the French economy to respond to further shocks was diminishing due to the country’s high exposure to the rapidly deteriorating Spanish and Greek economies. It now remains an open question before the last of the big three, Fitch, follows suit given they already have France on a negative outlook.  Moody’s also stated that the growth assumptions of 0.8% in 2013 were somewhat optimistic as are the assumptions for 2014.

While the loss of the triple A rating will be a blow to French prestige the reality is it probably won’t really change that much in terms of the economic outlook for the country given the economic challenges facing all of Europe’s economies.  It could however have a trickledown effect down through the French banking system, with potential downgrades for French banks, feeding through into higher borrowing costs, due to the perceived lower credit rating of the sovereign. 

What it probably also do is spice up the conversation at today’s special EU finance ministers meeting which has been convened to discuss the disbursement of the next aid tranche for Greece. There still remains a degree of uncertainty with respect to what decision EU leaders will come to with talk that the EU would be likely to give the go-ahead to disburse €44bn to Greece on 5th December as long as a number of prior actions are completed.

This does somewhat fly in the face of comments yesterday from Dutch and German officials that there would be no final decisions on Greece at today’s meeting, and this really seems to be the most likely outcome. It also doesn’t square with IMF chief Christine Lagarde’s recent insistence on a proper sustainable solution to the problem of Greece’s finances.

In positioning herself in such a way she now leaves herself open to a lack of credibility if she then backs away from this position, and agrees to another temporary solution. As with all things Europe we will have to wait and see, but the likelihood of a fudge, in the form of a partial payment seems the most likely solution, as opposed to a long term solution and markets should guard against getting their hopes up.

EURUSD – yesterday’s rebound above the 200 day MA at 1.2810 might well herald a move towards 1.2850 trend line resistance from the 1.3150 highs, as well as the 1.2910 area and 50 day MA, but the move isn’t really conclusive. Support now comes in at 1.2700 trend line support from the 1.2050 lows, a break of which could well target 1.2605 which is 50% retracement of the 1.2045/1.3170 up move. The current rebound needs to overcome the 1.2900 level to stabilise and target 1.3000. 

GBPUSD – the pound continues to struggle for momentum above the 1.5900 area, and needs to get above the 1.5960 area to really push on towards 1.6050. To push conclusively lower we would need to see a move towards and break below 1.5790 trend line support from the 1.5270 lows as well as 1.5660. 

EURGBP – the euro appears to be launching another attempt at the highs last week and the 200 day MA at 0.8080, after last week’s failure to push below the 0.8000 level. A move beyond the 0.8080 level could well retarget the October highs at 0.8165. On the downside trend line support comes in at 0.7980 from the July lows at 0.7755.

USDJPY – the 81.80 area remains the key obstacle to a move higher towards the March highs above 84.00. Last week also saw the US dollar close above the weekly cloud for the first time since April, which should be bullish. The 79.75 level should now act as support; otherwise we’ll end up heading back towards the November lows at 79.00.

 

Positive gains from Overseas Leads

By Ben Taylor (Sales Trader, CMC Markets)

 

Our market has followed on from overseas leads posting positive gains today. The majority of the outperformance has come from the mining and energy sectors which were oversold on fiscal cliff concerns and also buoyed by US housing sentiment overnight.

Greek government funding issues and US fiscal cliff concerns have warranted investors remaining underweight equities and risk overall in the past week.  As the risk abates investors reduced their shorts and bid up the market.  The Aussie dollar initially fell on the RBA monetary policy statement which suggested another interest rate cut in the near term is likely.

However, the falls were short lived following talk that the IMF will classify the Aussie dollar as an official reserve currency as recognition of it growing importance. Any such move is considered supportive for our currency.

While we have made progress today I would imagine the volatility will drop in the next few days ahead of Thanksgiving. As the Republicans compromise with the Democrats we could see the deadlock concluded. This outcome will give business investment, employment and tax issues some much needed certainty. Structure and certainty will benefit the market and I believe should lead us higher.  The US housing market sentiment is now at levels not seen since the peak in 2006.  This is very encouraging news for the US housing market and proves that the Fed’s low interest rate policy and stimulus measures are providing the much needed boost to growth.

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