Market Commentary: il dollaroyen verso area 84
Il fatto che oggi l’America festeggi il giorno del Ringraziamento lascia immaginare che la maggior parte dei movimenti di mercato si vedrà nella prima parte della seduta e ci sono fondate ragioni per credere che gli investitori siano pronti a ritornare in acquisto sulla base di una serie di buone notizie “buy in”: il cessate il fuoco a Gaza, il buon andamento della fiducia dei consumatori americani e soprattutto il dato sul manifatturiero cinese sono tutti elementi che i trader aspettavano dall’inizio della settimana per disporre di una buona scusa per comperare, lasciandosi alle spalle fattori di incertezza (sostenibilità del debito greco in primis e stasi della situazione economica europea). Ciononostante, rimane intatto il problema dell’Europa e dei suoi governanti, più impegnati ad organizzare meeting che a risolvere in concreto la situazione di un’economia in recessione e con la disoccupazione in aumento. In tale contesto la Spagna trova conveniente anticipare parte del suo fabbisogno finanziario per il prossimo anno (stimato in duecento miliardi di euro) con un’asta di titoli a dieci anni in programma oggi. Sul fronte valutario l’Eurodollaro continua ad essere comprato sui minimi con target al rialzo di 1,2920; il cable deve superare l’area posta intorno a 1,5960 per spingersi a 1,6050. Compresso in un trading range laterale, il cross EuroSterlina deve superare 0,8080 per tornare a 0,8165. Dollaro Yen proiettato verso area 84.
Europe set to open higher as Chinese PMI data improves
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
The fact that it is Thanksgiving in the US today is likely to see most of the day’s price action take place this morning, with volumes declining in the afternoon but there’s still certainly plenty to occupy the attention of investors, with equity markets set to open slightly higher after Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI number for November, came in at 50.4, and rose above 50 for the first time since October last year, raising hopes that the Chinese economy may be starting to rebound.
Putting aside and parking the perennial problem of Greece and the preoccupation about its debt to GDP ratio and debt sustainability for a few days, there remains the problem of a European economy mired in recession, with EU leaders too preoccupied with meetings and protracted budget negotiations to notice that growth is non-existent and unemployment continues to rise rapidly.
This is expected to be reinforced by preliminary November manufacturing and services PMI for France, Germany and the aggregated Eurozone numbers, which aren’t expected to show much of an improvement on figures a couple of weeks ago. Needless to say while some small improvements are expected, the numbers still point to a Q4 in Europe firmly in contraction with Germany starting to feel the proverbial chill quite sharply. Expectations are for France manufacturing and services PMI to improve slightly to 44.1 and 45.3 respectively, while Germany manufacturing and services is expected to remain unchanged at 46 and 48.4. The Eurozone numbers for manufacturing and services are expected to improve slightly to 45.6 and 46.1.
Despite Bank of Spain governor Linde stating that Spain was likely to miss its debt targets for 2012 Spanish bond yields slid back on the 10 year yesterday to around 5.77%. Even though Spain is fully funded for this year, it appears that they are taking advantage of the slightly more favourable conditions to get ahead of the curve with respect to next year’s funding needs of over €200bn, with a 10 year auction today. A previous auction saw a bid to cover of 1.9 and yields of 5.46%.
Yesterday’s Bank of England minutes showed that there was little enthusiasm for further QE at this stage despite David Miles wanting to add a further £25bn to the £375bn worth of QE already done. The bank suggested that Q4 could well see a mild contraction but remained cautious about the inflation outlook, suggesting that further QE remains unlikely this year, given the 8-1 decision to hold fire. While concerns remain about the recent dip in the manufacturing sector today’s CBI industrial orders for November are expected to show a pick up after October’s sharp fall to -23. It is anticipated that we should see an improvement to – 19.
EURUSD – the euro continues to be well bought on dips, yesterday rebounding from 1.2735 and falling short of 1.2710 trend line support from the 1.2050 lows. 1.2605 remains the next support below that being 50% retracement of the 1.2045/1.3170 up move. Today’s break above 1.2840 trend line resistance from the 1.3150 highs targets the 1.2920 area and 50 day MA.. The current rebound needs to overcome the 1.2920 level to stabilise and target 1.3000.
GBPUSD – yesterday’s dip to 1.5880 saw the pound gradually rebound towards the 1.5960 area. We need to hold above the 1.5960 area to really push on towards 1.6050. To push conclusively lower we would need to see a move towards and break below 1.5800 trend line support from the 1.5270 lows as well as 1.5660.
EURGBP – the price action continues to compress in a corridor between support at 0.8000 and resistance just below the 200 day MA and last week’s highs above 0.8065. Only a move beyond the 0.8080 level has the potential to retarget the October highs at 0.8165. On the downside trend line support comes in at 0.7989 from the July lows at 0.7755.
USDJPY – the break of 81.80 area now opens up the possibility of a move towards the March highs above 84.00. We need to stay above 81.80 to reinforce this scenario. Last weeks break above the weekly cloud for the first time since April, looks like the catalyst for further strong gains. The 80.60 level should now act as support; otherwise we’ll end up heading back towards the November lows at 79.00.
A Whirlwind of Optimism
By Ben Taylor (Sales Trader, CMC Markets)
We have seen broad based gains today as a whirlwind of optimism makes its mark across every sector. We started the session with the announcement of a cease-fire in Gaza and a positive lift in US consumer sentiment. However helping to sustain and justify the gains today has been China’s manufacturing PMI result.
Volumes have remained light which has helped glide the markets higher with little selling resistance. The market just feels like it has wanted to go higher all week, I have the feeling that investors have been looking for reasons to buy the market and today the negatives have been put aside.
The fact that the Euozone and IMF officials failed to reach agreement overnight, or that we are still in the dark with the US fiscal cliff are considerations that are not rating highly in investors’minds today.
The Chinese manufacturing result is particularly important to Australia and marks this year’s first manufacturing expansion. The result confirms that another piece of the Chinese economic puzzle is back on track and has given investors’ confidence to add risk to their portfolios. Any positive news of a Greek settlement can only add to the current optimism and help cement our index above the 4400 mark.