Market Commentary: operatori in attesa di ulteriori segnali di fiducia
Nonostante la chiusura positiva della scorsa settimana, dovuta al fatto che il mercato stia anticipando una conclusione positiva sia per quanto riguarda il Fiscal Cliff che per il pacchetto di nuovi aiuti alla Grecia, la sensazione è che i trader stiano aspettando ulteriori segnali di fiducia prima di dare il via al rally di fine anno. In attesa dunque di ulteriori segnali di via libera su questi due fronti, il passo degli acquisti potrebbe mostrarsi ancora piuttosto felpato mentre l’Europa si trova ad affrontare una nuova spina nel fianco a seguito dei primi risultati delle elezioni catalane. In Spagna infatti l’affermazione di un movimento politico pro-referendum di secessione potrebbe dare nuove gatte da pelare a Rajoy, considerato il fatto che Madrid si troverà costretta a chiedere gli aiuti all’Europa nel corso del prossimo anno e che la Catalogna da sola contribuisce al 20% del Pil nazionale. Un elemento di novità che potrebbe destabilizzare il mercato dei titoli di Stato spagnoli, i cui rendimenti negli ultimi mesi erano tornati sotto la soglia d’allarme.
Bivio anche sul mercato valutario: qualora infatti continuasse la propensione al rischio degli investitori, ciò diminuirebbe largamente l’appeal del Dollaro Usa, come peraltro si è già visto nelle quotazioni dell’Eurodollaro, protagonista di un recupero micidiale che lo ha riportato alle soglie di 1,30: qualora si raggiungesse un accordo sul timing della concessione degli aiuti alla Grecia, la moneta unica potrebbe toccare nuovamente 1,3050; lo stesso movente potrebbe spingere il Dollaro australiano verso 1,05 entro le prossime 48 ore se i mercati continuassero a mostrarsi in iper-comprato per le prossime sedute.Recupero anche della Sterlina che contro il Dollaro Usa potrebbe tornare a 1,6200 , mentre perde terreno nei confronti dell’Euro, che potrebbe tornare a 0,8165 se continuasse l’attuale fase rialzista. DollaroYen sulla via del ritorno a 84, a seguito della chiusura settimanale sopra 80,50.
Catalonia votes for pro referendum parties
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
It was never likely that this weekend’s election result in Catalonia would make Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy’s life any easier, and so it would appear given that proreferendum parties in Catalonia appear to have won at least two thirds of the seats, which could strengthen separation fears that could well cause problems further down the line, for the Spanish government. Mr Rajoy has already stated that any decision to hold a referendum would be unconstitutional and thus illegal; and while he can gain some comfort from the fact that the Artur Mas, the existing Catalan President appears to have lost support, it would appear that this support has gone to a much more proindependence party, the ERC which has doubled its number of seats.
This would suggest that the pressure for a referendum could increase, not diminish, especially if current austerity policies push the various parties supporting a referendum on secession, closer together to work together towards that goal. The fact that turnout was the highest in nearly 30 years suggests that the Catalan people now want to have a say on this particular issue, which could well create further uncertainty surrounding Europe’s 4th largest economy at a time when, what they need most, is stability.
What the consequences are of this particular outcome could well take a while to unfold, but Mr Rajoy will need to tread carefully politically given that the Catalan region contributes around 20% of Spanish GDP, though it is also the most indebted, owing about €45bn, and has to rely on central government support.
At some point next year Mr Rajoy will have to request a bailout from the EU which could well mean the surrender of some fiscal sovereignty in the process, with strong conditionality attached something that will not go down well with Spain’s autonomous regions. Market reaction to this outcome is likely to be determined by the direction of Spanish bond yields which have been falling recently, but could reverse in light of the weekend events.
Also today Euro zone finance ministers have yet another opportunity to come to a decision on the long awaited Greece aid program, and whether it will consist of an initial €32bn or the full €44bn, which would have been due by the end of this year. A decision today, or this week, is not a foregone conclusion by any means, despite the recent market gains. There have been reports that the IMF will move from its original insistence that Greece’s debt to GDP ratio must be 120% of GDP by 2020, and moved to 124%, which would be a significant climb-down, especially given that Christine Lagarde has also stated that debt write downs must also be considered.
This continues to be rejected out of hand by EU policymakers. There has also been talk of reducing the interest rate on loans to Greece, and extending maturities, as well as a €10bn debt buyback. There has also been speculation that the ECB would forgo its profits on its SMP program. The reduction of interest rates on loans could well prove problematic, especially if Greece gets to pay a lower interest rate than the rate the money.
EURUSD – Friday’s move higher beyond the 50 day MA and 1.2920 has brought the euro within touching distance of trend line resistance at 1.3005 from the 2011 1.4940 highs. A break here has the potential to retarget the September highs at 1.3175. Any pullbacks are likely to find support around the 1.2910 area where the 50 day MA sits, while below that we also have trend line support from the 1.2050 lows now comes in at 1.2725.
GBPUSD – the current pullback has the potential to run up to 1.6100 channel line resistance from the 1.6310 highs, after hitting the 1.6050 level on Friday. Above 1.6100 has the potential to target 1.6200 and the October highs. Any drift below 1.6000 could well find support around the 1.5970 area. To push conclusively lower we would need to see a move towards and break below 1.5810 trend line support from the 1.5270 lows as well as 1.5660.
EURGBP – holding above the 200 day MA at 0.8080 last week saw the move to 0.8115 unfold and there remains the possibility of a move towards the October highs at 0.8165, as the current bullish phase continues. A move and close below 0.8080 would undermine the potential for further gains and reopen the downside and move back to 0.8020. On the downside trend line support comes in at 0.7990 from the July lows at 0.7755.
USDJPY – we got to 82.85 last week before slipping back. The US dollar remains on track for the March highs above 84.00, while above the 81.80 area, which was the key breakout level. The break above the weekly cloud at 80.50 for the first time since April looks like the catalyst for further strong gains. Only below the 80.50 level suggests a move back towards the November lows at 79.00.
Resumption of Risk Appetite Sends AUD Higher
By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)
The rally on financial markets to end last week suggests that traders are anticipating favourable outcomes on key issues such as the Fiscal cliff and further aid for Greece. The festive mood from Thanksgiving carried over to Wall Street with the Black Friday sales numbers igniting a fresh bout of market enthusiasm.
With investors feeling good about the world again, US Dollar demand was diminished which opened the door for some serious moves to the high side for oil, gold and the Euro. The Euro has staged an impressive comeback performance to now be knocking on the door of the 1.30 level despite being in the doldrums mid-November. If we get sign off on the next tranche of Greek aid, 1.3050 looks a likely target.
The resumption of risk appetite late last week has resulted in the Australian Dollar moving to within striking distance of 1.05. With the appeal of the Greenback decreased on high hopes of a strong finish to the year by financial markets, the AUD has made the best of the conditions with traders recommencing the quest for yield. At least for the moment, yield is sought while we have expectations that Europe will avoid catastrophe and that the US will get the budget dilemma sorted in time.
Today has been about consolidation for the AUD with the currency barely moving given the lack of new developments during the Asian session. It is possible that a favourable outcome on Greece from the EU finance ministers could have the AUD testing 1.05 in the coming 24-48hrs if equity markets keep ticking higher in a sign of continued buying confidence.
Despite the enthusiastic rise by Wall Street on Friday, the Australian market was slow to get out of the gates today with traders adopting a fairly measured approach as we await word from the Eurozone finance Ministers regarding Greek aid. With the Greekaid situation in Europe and the budget discussions in the US both still ongoing, the ASX200 was reluctant to move out of first gear today given we still have some crucial as-yet unresolved issues abroad. As such, the Australian market moved at its own pace today with traders needing further convincing that the Friday rally on Wall Street was legit and not solely fuelled by Thanksgiving cheer.