Market Commentary: Dollaro Yen verso quota 84
I mercato europei si apprestano ad aprire in territorio negativo la seduta odierna: a seguito della delusione sul dato Ism di ieri e a causa degli interrogativi sollevati dal Fiscal Cliff infatti i mercati continuano a trattare all’interno di range predeterminati. In Australia la banca centrale ha tagliato i tassi di 25 punti base portandoli a livello di emergenza in risposta ai dati macro deboli e per calmierare le quotazioni del Dollaro Australiano che stanno danneggiando le esportazioni. Nonostante la richiesta spagnola di 37 miliardi di euro per ricapitalizzare le sue banche fosse nota da tempo, viene il momento di interrogarsi sul numero di richieste che potrebbero arrivare di qui ai prossimi mesi (essendo l’aiuto condizionato a seimila tagli occupazionali nel settore bancario, il che farà certamente peggiorare disoccupazione e percentuale dei debiti inesigibili): oltre a Madrid (che, secondo il nostro parere, sarà costretta a chiedere un vero e proprio salvataggio del Paese prima o poi) l’Ecofin di oggi dovrà inoltre trovare un accordo sui dettagli delle recenti decisioni sul debito greco mentre Cipro potrebbe essere il prossimo Paese richiedente gli aiuti dell’Esm.
Eurodollaro vicino a 1,3175 (massimi di settembre) senza esclusione di un ritorno a 1,3485, mentre un’inversione di tendenza si avrebbe solo sotto 1,2900. Sterlina lanciata verso 1,6180 contro Dollaro Usa mentre la moneta unica potrebbe subire una battuta d’arresto contro il pound (a 0,8165). Sussistono invece valide motivazioni tecniche per sostenere che il Dollaro Yen possa arrivare a 82,80 prima e a 84 poi.
Eurogroup approves Spanish bank bailout
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
European markets look set to open lower this morning as once again concerns about a resolution to the US fiscal cliff keep markets within their recent ranges amidst disappointment over yesterday’s disappointing ISM numbers for November. Yesterday’s decision by Spain to ask for €37bn of aid for its banking recapitalisation plan had been widely expected for some time, however one can’t help feeling that the amount being asked for could be one of many requests over the coming months.
With the aid being conditional on sweeping job cuts in excess of 6,000, and bank branch closures across the country the effects are likely to be felt across the entire Spanish economy, which is already seeing tax revenues shrink sharply.
When looking at the state of the economy, the likelihood that the country will miss its fiscal target for 2012 and a further 90k increase in unemployment numbers for November to be confirmed later today, the likelihood remains that the number of nonperforming loans can only increase. The last number, as confirmed by the Bank of Spain last month, was €182bn and with banks in Spain being forced to extend forbearance, losses will only take longer to realise as the economy contracts and the unemployment rate increases.
Even though Spanish bond yields have continued to decline in recent weeks it can only be a matter of time before the Spanish Prime Minister will find himself forced to request a sovereign bailout to go with the banking one.
As well as the approval by European finance ministers of the Spanish bank bailout, ministers will be discussing the latest terms of the Greek bailout package, as well as a bailout for Cyprus, while the refusal of EU ministers to extend the softened Greece bailout terms to the other program countries Portugal and Ireland is bound to foster feelings of resentment from countries who have played by the rules, and yet appear to be being penalised for it. The subject of a successor to Eurogroup head Jean Claude Juncker is also likely to be a topic for debate in the coming weeks.
In the UK yesterday’s better than expected manufacturing PMI data for November has raised hopes that the UK economy may be starting to recover in Q4, which thus far has seen some disappointing numbers. Today’s construction PMI data is expected to slip back slightly from 50.9 to 50.6, with all eyes on tomorrow’s UK budget and Autumn Statement amidst concern about the sustainability of the UK’s triple “A” rating. In Asia the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates as expected by 25 basis points in response to recent soft economic data, as well as concern that the high value of the Australian dollar is starting to hurt export competitiveness.
EURUSD – yesterday we saw the single currency break above trend line resistance at 1.3060 from the highs this year at 1.3360. The risk is now that we retarget the September highs at 1.3175, and even retest the highs this year at 1.3485. For the downside to open up again we need to see a break back below the 50 day MA and 1.2900 retargets a move towards the 200 day MA at 1.2790, while below that we also have trend line support from the 1.2050 lows which now comes in at 1.2770.
GBPUSD – yesterday we saw the pound break through both the 50 day MA at 1.6050 and channel line resistance from the 1.6310 highs which now has the potential to target 1.6180 as well as the 1.6250 resistance from the 1.6745 2011 highs. Only a drop back through 1.6050 undermines this bullish scenario and targets a retest of the 1.5960 lows of last week. Major trend line support remains at 1.5835 from the 1.5270 lows, as well as 1.5660.
EURGBP – a tweezers top yesterday at 0.8135 has seen the single currency slip back and could halt the rally towards the October highs at 0.8165 as the next resistance. The move higher could well be undermined by a move below the 0.8100 level towards the 200 day MA support at 0.8050. Also on the downside we have trend line support at 0.8010 from the July lows at 0.7755.
USDJPY – there appears to be a potential double top forming on the four hourly charts with the base at 81.75. If we break below 81.70 then the potential is there for a move towards 80.50, and even 79.90. We need a break above the 82.80 level to target a move towards the March highs above the 84.00 level. Only below the 80.50 level suggests a move back towards the November lows at 79.00.
Interest Rates At Emergency Levels
By Ben Taylor (Sales Trader, CMC Markets)
The markets have spent much of the day treading water in low volume and in a tight trading range waiting for the much anticipated Christmas interest rate cut. While the Prime minister spent her morning encouraging the banks to pass on the cut in full the market doesn’t believe the banks will spread the Christmas cheer given the banks cost of funding pressures. Leading into the interest rate decision the market was pricing it “as good as done”. The move has taken the Australian standard rate to emergency levels not seen since the GFC.
A beaten up manufacturing sector, deteriorating terms of trade, declining mining investment intentions, weakening inflationary pressures and a government looking to produce a surplus at any cost are all reasons for today’s cut. Despite the wide variety of negatives plaguing our market there are many reasons to be involved right now. It’s likely that equity funds will continue to see positive net inflows of cash getting put to more productive use in the equity markets.