Market Commentary: Eurodollaro, il superamento di 1,3175 ci porterebbe verso i massimi annuali
In attesa dei dati americani sui salari non agricoli che chiuderanno la settimana e dai quali ci si attende una schiarita per quanto riguarda il quadro della ripresa Usa (offuscata dalla delusione per l’indice Ism), gli investitori sembrano non riuscire a dimenticare che il Fiscal Cliff incombe mentre aumentano le probabilità di un accordo last minute. Il pericolo dei tagli automatici alla spesa che si concretizzerebbe in mancanza di una soluzione bipartisan infatti sembra essere a momento la minaccia più grande al rally che i mercati azionari si preparano a correre da qui a fine anno, per quanto vi siano pochissime chance che si possa avverare. Al di qua dell’Oceano oggi i mercati si concentreranno sui contenuti dell’Autumn Statement del Cancelliere dello Scacchiere inglese che giunge in un momento abbastanza incerto per quanto riguarda le previsioni sull’economia UK. Eurodollaro rimane in mood rialzista: un superamento di area 1,3175 ci porterebbe verso i massimi annuali di 1,3485 mentre per un’inversione di trend occorre tornare sotto 1,2900. Rafforzamento anche per la Sterlina nei confronti del Dollaro Usa che ora ha il potenziale per riagguantare 1,6250. DollaroYen al bivio: sopra 82,80 potrebbe arrivare a 84, mentre se ritraccia sotto 81,70 il target è a 79,90.
Autumn Statement to shift focus to UK economy
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
In a week dominated by Europe and the on-going to-ing and fro-ing in the US with respect to the fiscal cliff, markets will be turning their attention to the tribulations of the UK economy today when the Chancellor of the Exchequer stands up to give the annual Autumn Statement.
Other interested observers are likely to be the ratings agency with the UK’s credit rating on a knife edge with all three of them, as the economy struggles with rising debt levels and stagnant growth. It is widely expected that the Chancellor will have to push out his timetable well into the next parliament on balancing the budget, given that the fall in tax revenues has meant that the UK is on target to borrow much more than planned in this fiscal year.
Today’s services PMI for November is expected to show an expansion of 51, a slight improvement on Octobers 50.6, however yesterday’s construction PMI number painted a very weak picture of a sector ill at ease and at its weakest since December 2008. Over the past few quarters this sector has been the biggest drag on GDP growth, hence the Chancellor’s £5bn plan to boost infrastructure, announced yesterday.
At around the same time the OBR will in all likelihood downgrade its growth forecasts further restricting the Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre, with respect to balancing the budget. A downgrade from 0.8% to zero growth, or even worse is expected for 2012, while the 2013 estimate is also likely to be slashed.
Over in Europe the economy is not in any better shape with November services PMI numbers for Spain, Italy, France and Germany due to show contractions across the board of 42, 46, 46.1 and 48 respectively. Retail sales in October are also expected to decline 0.8% year on year. In the US while markets continue to focus on the pantomime of the fiscal cliff negotiations, the economic data in some parts has given cause for concern.
This week’s disappointing ISM number a case in point with today’s ADP employment report for November expected to show a slowing in jobs growth to 129k, down from 158k previously. While Hurricane Sandy may have been a factor a disappointing number could raise concerns about the strength of Friday’s employment report which is expected to show a fairly weak number.
EURUSD – the euro continues to defy all attempts to move lower as it closes in the September highs at 1.3175. A break here targets the highs this year at 1.3485. Interim support can be found at yesterday’s lows at 1.3040. For the downside to open up again we need to see a break back below the 50 day MA and 1.2900 retargets a move towards the 200 day MA at 1.2790, while below that we also have trend line support from the 1.2050 lows which also comes in at 1.2790.
GBPUSD – yesterday we saw the pound break through both the 50 day MA at 1.6050 and channel line resistance from the 1.6310 highs which now has the potential to target 1.6180 as well as the 1.6250 resistance from the 1.6745 2011 highs.Only a drop back through 1.6050 undermines this bullish scenario and targets a retest of the 1.5960 lows of last week. Major trend line support remains at 1.5835 from the 1.5270 lows, as well as 1.5660.
EURGBP – a higher high yesterday undermines the tweezers top scenario and keeps us on course towards the October highs at 0.8165 as the next resistance. Above 0.8165 targets 0.8220. The move higher can only be undermined by a move below the 0.8100 level towards the 200 day MA support at 0.8050. Also on the downside we have trend line support at 0.8010 from the July lows at 0.7755.
USDJPY – still within the potential double top pattern on the four hourly charts after the base held at 81.75. If we break below 81.70 then the potential is there for a move towards 80.50, and even 79.90. We need a break above the 82.80 level to target a move towards the March highs above the 84.00 level. Only below the 80.50 level suggests a move back towards the November lows at 79.00.
Negative News Not Sticking to the AUD
By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)
RBA rate cuts, falling commodity prices, lower GDP print, all seemingly water off a ducks back when it comes to Australian Dollar performance with the currency inching closer to the 1.05 level against the Greenback.
The AUD has exhibited Teflon-like qualities recently by ascending despite events which may on the surface have suggested moves to the contrary. The push higher by the currency would seem almost oblivious to the interest rate cut and the sharp decline in the gold price, while even a lower than forecast GDP reading today did little to disrupt the Aussie Dollar.
Most traders seemed to interpret the RBA’s statement as indicating that the central bank has wielded the axe on rates for the last time in the present cycle, which if true would preserve the AUD’s yield advantage over other currencies for the foreseeable future. It would seem traders looked at the RBA statement in the same context as the improving Chinese economic data this week and have put two and two together and come up with 3% being the floor on the Australian interest rate picture looking ahead to 2013.
The GDP reading today caused a mild downward reaction in the AUD but the ground was quickly recovered. The growth of 0.5% for the quarter (vs 0.6% forecast) did not miss the mark by miles, but equally it was nothing to get too excited about which explains the fairly mild response by the market in reaction to the data. All in all the GDP reading today did little to change the market perception of the Australian economy looking ahead.
The Australian sharemarket looked to make up for Tuesdays move lower by posting
moderate gains today. It was a solid, if not spectacular performance by the ASX200
with shares grinding higher despite another indifferent showing on Wall Street and the
underwhelming local GDP print. It appears that traders have moved on from the initial
disappointment from some quarters on Tuesday over not receiving a 50 basis point
cut from the RBA. Over the remainder of the week, economic data will be
coming thick and fast which will give traders plenty to think about, culminating in the US Non-Farm Payrolls data on Friday. Then there is the Fiscal Cliff.
It seems traders are now resigned to the fact that this will likely be resolved later rather than sooner, with the impasse in Washington likely to be a hindrance to upside market momentum for several weeks yet. As such, any advance made by financial markets in the interim will be made with some in-built trepidation whilst ever a fall over the cliff by the US economy remains even the slightest chance.