Market Commentary: Fitch si prepara a tagliare il rating britannico
L’avvertimento di Fitch sull’economia Uk (che potrebbe presto perdere la tripla A a seguito del mancato raggiungimento dei target di riduzione del debito, fatto che indebolisce la credibilità del Paese come forza finanziaria) è considerato un segnale praticamente certo del fatto che il rating verrà abbassato il prossimo anno, per quanto l’eventuale verificarsi di tale avvenimento non possa più tradursi automaticamente nel disastro che lo stesso avrebbe prodotto una decina d’anni fa (come dimostrano i casi di Francia e Usa), come d’altronde si può constatare osservando i rendimenti di ieri del gilt decennale. L’abitudine ad un quadro ormai in costante deterioramento nel Vecchio Continente ci porta ad attendere una contrazione dello 0,6% per quanto riguarda il dato revisionato del Pil del terzo trimestre e un nulla di nuovo dalle decisioni sui tassi della Bce, per quanto debbano essere monitorate attentamente le parole del Presidente Draghi, i cui recenti commenti lasciano presagire attese per una ripresa nella seconda metà del 2013, per quanto fragile in quanto accompagnata da una possibile revisione al ribasso delle stime di crescita e inflazione. Eurodollaro passibile di un ritracciamento almeno fino a che non supererà 1,3175 che aprirebbe la strada verso 1,3485; per vedere un’inversione di tendenza dovremmo scendere sotto 1,2900. Sterlina-Dollaro Usa: sopra 1,6120 il nostro consiglio è quello di vendere, solo sotto 1,6045 si indebolirebbe lo scenario rialzista. DollaroYen: se scende sotto 81,70 accelererebbe il movimento ribassista, al contrario sopra 82,80 ci muoveremmo verso l’obiettivo di 84 (massimi di marzo).
Fitch warns on UK rating ahead of BoE and ECB rate meetings
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
The ink had barely dried on the latest Autumn Statement before ratings agency Fitch warned in no uncertain terms that the UK government’s failure to hit his debt targets “weakens the credibility of the UK’s fiscal framework which supports the rating” and would once again review the triple “A” rating after the March 2013 budget. This statement suggests that it’s fairly certain that the rating will be cut next year; however credit ratings aren’t what they once were three years ago when 10 year gilt yields were above 4%.
The world has become a much changed place since then and it seems quite likely that a cut in the rating wouldn’t be the disaster it might have been then, as the recent US and French experience has shown. Certainly bond markets aren’t concerned by the possibility of a downgrade, with UK 10 year gilt yields falling from 1.81% to 1.775% by the end of yesterday’s trading.
Today’s Bank of England rate meeting is likely to be a non-event with policy expected to remain unchanged on the amount of QE and rates, while just before that the latest Trade balance numbers for October are expected to show a deficit of £3bn, a slight increase on September.
In Europe the economic data continues to deteriorate with yesterday’s Eurozone retail sales numbers showing a sharp fall in October of 1.2%. Today’s German factory orders for October are expected to improve slightly on a monthly basis, but to drop even more on an annualised basis by 5.6%, while the latest GDP revision for the Euro area is expected to be confirmed at a -0.6% contraction for Q3 annualised.
The latest ECB rate meeting is expected to see rates left unchanged, however the press conference is expected to see Mr Draghi downgrade the central banks growth and inflation forecasts once more in the face of the recent poor Q4 data seen in the past few weeks. Recent comments from Mr Draghi have suggested that he expects a recovery in the second half of 2013, and it will be particularly noteworthy as to whether he stands by that assessment later today.
As an aside ratings agency Standard and Poor’s has put Greece into (SD) selective default, not unexpected given the recent so called “voluntary” debt buyback plan. In the US the latest weekly jobless claims are expected to fall again as the hurricane Sandy effect continues to diminish with expectations of a fall to 380k from 393k.
Yesterday’s ADP numbers for November were a slight disappointment coming in as they did below expectations at 118k, raising the possibility that tomorrow’s payroll number will be similarly weak.
EURUSD – a higher high yesterday at 1.3125, however the euro closed lower suggesting the potential for a pullback. The September highs at 1.3175 remain the key obstacle to a break towards the highs this year at 1.3485. Interim support remains at Tuesday’s lows at 1.3040. For the downside to open up again we need to see a break back below the 50 day MA and 1.2900 retargets a move towards the 200 day MA at 1.2790, while below that we also have trend line support from the 1.2050 lows which also comes in at 1.2790.
GBPUSD – running into selling interest above 1.6120, with resistance behind that at 1.6180. Support remains at the 50 day MA at 1.6045. Only a drop back through 1.6045 undermines this bullish scenario and targets a retest of the 1.5960 lows of last week. Major trend line support remains at 1.5850 from the 1.5270 lows, as well as 1.5660.
EURGBP – the euro is starting to struggle as it gets closer to the October highs at 0.8165. A move higher above 0.8165 can only be undermined by a move below the 0.8100 level towards the 200 day MA support at 0.8050. Also on the downside we have trend line support at 0.8015 from the July lows at 0.7755.
USDJPY – still within the potential double top pattern on the four hourly charts after the base held at 81.75. If we break below 81.70 then the potential is there for a move towards 80.50, and even 79.90. We need a break above the 82.80 level to target a move towards the March highs above the 84.00 level. Only below the 80.50 level suggests a move back towards the November lows at 79.00.
Unemployment Figures Catch Market By Surprise
By Ben Taylor (Sales Trader, CMC Markets)
The market has struggled to hold ground today despite positive overnight leads and an unemployment number which bucked the trend. Today’s unemployment read caught the market by surprise. The daily onslaught of economic doom and gloom, talk of Australian companies doing it tough and stories of workers being laid off had the market ready for a lift in the unemployment rate. The result was a real kick in the teeth to those shorting the Aussie dollar today.
Falling job ads, a fall in GDP, our manufacturing industry in heavy contraction mixed with the RBA dropping rates; you’d be forgiven if you believed that today’s result would see a rise in unemployment. The result paints a merry picture for the Australian economy which is showing signs of uncanny employment resilience despite all the news and data to the contrary. If the RBA looks to the unemployment result for guidance it will make it very difficult to see rates cut again in February.