Market Commentary: focus su Grecia e fiscal cliff
In attesa che i policy makers al di qua e al di là dell’Oceano si decidano a mettere la parola fine alle due questioni ancora aperte del Fiscal Cliff e dello stanziamento di un’ ultima tranche di aiuti alla Grecia a seguito del buyback, gli investitori continuano a sentirsi in mood con un mercato rialzista sulla base di una buona dose di ottimismo generata da alcune conferme positive giunte in settimana sia dal’Asia che dagli Usa che dalla Germania. Se questo sarà la musica che sentiremo suonare sino a fine anno o meno dipenderà comunque molto dal fatto che si giunga ad un accordo per evitare il precipizio fiscale americano e a chiudere il deal sul debito greco, dal momento che secondo gli ultimi calcoli il rapporto debito/pil dovrebbe scendere solo al 126% e non al 124% richiesto dal Fmi per sbloccare un nuovo pacchetto di sostegno. Last but not least, c’è attesa di conoscere la decisione della Fed oggi a proposito di un nuovo ciclo di Operation Twist che dovrebbe riprendere a gennaio: in mancanza di certezze a tal proposito, l’oro ha ritracciato; aspettando il discorso oggi del capoeconomista della Bank of England, ci si interroga su quale sarà la prossima politica monetaria del Regno Unito e se vi sarà l’implementazione dei programmi QE e “funding for lending”.
In tale situazione, l’Eurodollaro deve riuscire ad oltrepassare 1,3020 per riprendere 1,3125 e per scongiurare i pericoli di una ridiscesa a 1,2880; in tono rialzista anche la Sterlina contro il USD che può arrivare a 1,6180 e 1,6300. Potrebbe invece essersi infilata in un canale ribassista la moneta unica contro la Sterlina: sotto 0,8010 troviamo 0,7960. DollaroYen ancora ingessato tra due livelli (81,70-82,85) che lasciano aperte entrambe le possibilità direzionali. Dollaro Australiano proiettato verso 1,06 entro fine anno qualora il rally di Borsa dovesse proseguire.
UK unemployment set to remain steady
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
UK unemployment data is expected to show a slight increase in November with jobless claims set to increase by 7k, but slightly down on the 10k rise on the previous month. On the ILO measure for the three months to October the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 7.8%, however there is a concern that the some form of post-Olympic slump could see the rate edge up a little especially when considering some of the poor construction and manufacturing PMI data that we have seen in recent months, especially in the employment components.
Average earnings look also set to increase the squeeze on consumer incomes, especially when compared to underlying inflation, coming in at 1.9% on a rolling three month basis. A speech today by Bank of England Chief economist Spencer Dale might give some clues as the Bank’s future thinking on the direction of policy, particularly “funding for lending” and the imminent likelihood of further QE.
News that the Greek debt buyback has attracted bids up to €32bn but at a slightly higher cost means that Greece’s notional debt level will only be reduced to 126.6% of GDP by 2020, and not 124% of GDP, meaning that the next steps to try and close the gap lie in the hands of Eurogroup finance ministers who have delayed a decision until Thursday morning at the EU Summit.
Given that the revised IMF “sustainable debt level” is 124% of GDP we can expect some more arm twisting at the EU level of outstanding Greek bond holders to get the “voluntary participation” up to the required level and thus ensure the IMF’s participation in the new plan, and thus unlock the next aid tranche and keep the debt train on the track awhile longer.
In the US the last FOMC meeting of 2012 is expected to see the Federal Reserve replace its soon to expire $45bn a month “operation twist” program with a new series of asset purchases starting in January next year.
Markets appear to be expecting further easing measures, over and above the $40bn of MBS purchases already committed to, simply because US politicians continue to squabble over a deal to cut spending and raise taxes, and there is a worry that there may well be no agreement by the time January 1st comes around. For all this anticipation of additional Fed action today one asset is currently refusing to play ball and that is gold, which has been drifting lower which is rather perplexing. That could well change if the anticipation of additional open ended easing turns into reality, later this evening.
EURUSD – the current rebound needs to get back through the 1.3020 area to retarget the highs this month at 1.3125 and the larger resistance at 1.3175. The key support remains at the 1.2880/90 level which is the 50% retracement of the up move from 1.2660 to last week’s high at 1.3125. A move below the 1.2880 level opens up a move back towards the trend line support from the 1.2050 low, which sits at 1.2820, and the 200 day MA at 1.2790.
GBPUSD – while the 1.6120/30 level caps the risk remains for a retest of the 1.6010 level. A break through 1.6120 retargets 1.6180, and then 1.6300. A key support remains at 1.5980 and a break through here targets major trend line support at 1.5865 from the 1.5270 lows, the 200 day MA at 1.5870 as well as 1.5660.
EURGBP – trend line support at 0.8020 from the July lows at 0.7755 remains the key level for the uptrend to continue. A break below the 0.8010 level targets the November lows at 0.7960, while a move back through 0.8080 is needed to stabilise and target a move back towards 0.8130.
USDJPY – the US dollar remains stuck in the range between triple resistance at the 82.85 level with the base at 81.70. If we break below 81.60 then the potential is there for a move towards 80.50, and even 79.90. We need a break above the 82.80 level to target a move towards the March highs above the 84.00 level. Only below the 80.50 level suggests a move back towards the November lows at 79.00.
Overseas Data Provides Pockets of Optimism
By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)
Within the past week, financial markets have been served a dose of optimism from three key parts of the globe. US, Chinese and now European economic indicators have all provided pockets of optimism for investors on the approach to year-end. US payrolls data on Friday surprised on the upside, a raft of Chinese data has come on the higher side of expectations and now the latest German economic sentiment reading has hit a seven month high, seemingly from leftfield.
Investors are being lured back into the market now on growing expectations that the road may be less bumpy in 2013, however the fiscal cliff outcome could still throw a sizable spanner in the works when it comes to market projections for the coming twelve months.
The Australian Dollar has been able to make some significant forward progress in recent days with traders feeling more inclined to seek yield as a result of the rosier-looking global economic picture. The push above 1.05 has been building for some time with traders quickly latching onto the Aussie Dollar as each set of more upbeat economic data has been released from Europe, the US and China.
With momentum on the side of risk assets the AUD could conceivably be eyeing a run to 1.06 before year-end should the rally into Christmas continue. Today was about consolidation for the AUD as much as anything with little in the way of new market drivers. A surprisingly low consumer sentiment reading did little to upset the AUD which stuck mainly to the 1.0520-1.0530 range during Asian market hours.
The Australian sharemarket continued its steady December ascent thanks to another solid outing by the resource stocks, with the ASX200 having a dalliance with the 4600 level today. Market attention will be focused on the FOMC to provide further direction for the remainder of the week.