Market Commentary: gli operatori scommettono su un accordo tra Repubblicani e Democratici
Le speranze che Repubblicani e Democratici riescano a trovare un compromesso che eviti il precipizio fiscale il prossimo anno stanno sostenendo le quotazioni dei mercati per quanto, a prescindere dai contenuti dell’accordo, qualsiasi compromesso verrà accolto positivamente poichè contribuirà a schiarire il quadro di eventi futuri. Non dimentichiamo tuttavia che, qualora i prezzi dei titoli salissero oltre i potenziali guadagni societari futuri, potremmo assistere ad una rapida correzione in grado di mettere il silenziatore al rally di Natale. Il consolidamento dell’Eurodollaro oltre i massimi di maggio potrebbe vedere un’ulteriore accelerazione verso 1,3250 prima e 1,3490 poi; per compromettere lo scenario rialzista occorrerebbe scendere sotto 1,3020. Avendo oltrepassato 1,6180, il cable si avvicina a 1,6310 e 1,6500. La mancanza di ritracciamento potrebbe spingere anche l’EuroSterlina verso 0,8300. Ulteriore indebolimento del DollaroYen che potrebbe spingere il biglietto verde fino a 85,55 qualora si riuscisse a mantenere quota 82,80.
Fiscal cliff optimism to buoy stocks, ahead of UK CPI
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
The on-off optimism with respect to the fiscal cliff talks that has dominated sentiment over the past few weeks continues to drive sentiment in US markets after yesterday’s move higher saw stocks resume the uptrend in stocks that has been in place since November 16th and as such help Europe’s markets open higher this morning.
Yesterday’s gains were once again driven by growing optimism that ultimately Republicans and Democrats will step back from the brink and agree something by the end of this week to avert the fiscal cliff. It would appear that John Boehner’s weekend retreat on tax rises, a significant move, has offered a glimmer of hope that there could well be further wriggle room in the coming days, but progress between the parties remains glacial despite the fact that any agreement needs to wrapped up this week and then ratified by both houses of government to make it on to the statute books by January 1st.
In the UK the latest inflation numbers for November are expected to show a slight annualised decline from 2.7% in October to 2.6%. On a month on month basis, expectations are for a monthly rise of 0.2%, however given that November saw significant, above inflation energy price rises of around 9% on average from various energy companies, there is a concern that the number could go the other way, and move higher again, especially if price falls in other areas don’t fully compensate. Retail prices for November are expected to remain unchanged at 3.2%, equating to a month on month rise of 0.2%.
As such Mervyn King will have to once again write his customary letter to the Chancellor explaining why the bank has missed its inflation target, though I would imagine he’s already had it pre-printed to save time, having had to use it so often over the last three years. The only silver lining is that producer prices do appear to be under control somewhat mitigating the upward pressure on prices at the factory level.
In Europe last week saw Spanish house prices show an increase on the rate of decline of 15.2% year on year, and Bank of Spain data to be released today is likely to show that as a result of this the amount of non-performing loans is also likely to have increased from the €182bn number from last month. Spain will also be looking to sell 3 and 6 month T-bills today, while in Italy the Italian senate will begin sitting to start the discussion on the 2013 budget plan.
EURUSD – yesterday’s consolidation near to and beyond its May highs appears to be building up a flag continuation pattern which if it breaks higher could well see a sharp move towards 1.3250 initially, suggesting further gains towards 1.3490 and the 200 week MA. 1.3170 also happens to be 38.2% retracement of the 1.4940/1.2045 down move. To undermine this scenario we need to see a move back below 1.3020 to retarget the key support at the 1.2880/90 level which is the 50% retracement of the up move from 1.2660 to last week’s high at 1.3125. A move below the 1.2880 level opens up a move back towards the trend line support from the 1.2050 low, which now sits at 1.2825, and the 200 day MA at 1.2790.
GBPUSD – having pushed through 1.6180 the cable is getting closer to the November highs at 1.6310 which in turn could well see a move back towards the 1.6500 level. Trend line support from the 1.5830 lows now comes in at 1.6080, while the key support remains at 1.5980. Only a break through here targets major trend line support at 1.5885 from the 1.5270 lows, the 200 day MA at 1.5880 as well as 1.5660.
EURGBP – the November highs at 0.8165 continue to cap further advances; however the lack of pull back suggests a move to the 0.8300 level could be in the works. The 0.8080 level needs to hold for this move to unfold otherwise we’re probably heading back towards 0.8030 and trend line support from the July lows at 0.7755 which remains the key level for the uptrend to continue.
USDJPY – a new high of 84.40 for the year but we’ve slipped back somewhat, but
remain above last week’s close at 83.55. Further yen weakness remains likely
towards the 2011 highs at 85.55 but we need to stay above the break out
level at 82.80 for this to unfold. If we do drop below this then there remains solid
support at 81.70. If we break below 81.60 then the potential is there for a move
towards 80.50, and even 79.90.
Will Santa’s Christmas Rally Be Silenced?
By Ben Taylor (Sales Trader, CMC Markets)
The market has reached new highs for the year following optimism that a compromise is nearing between the US President and Republican leader Boehner. The market will view any advance in talks as positive for confidence which has been battered by the daily flow of political fighting. It now seems the Republicans are ready to abandon their hard line idea on taxes while the President looks to be reading for cuts to social security entitlements.
Regardless of what is decided, the market is looking for a decision and any compromise will help provide a clearer picture for the future.
The release of the December RBA minutes showed us the thinking of the Reserve Bank Governor and its board. It’s clear that the current thinking is that we are nearing the peak of the mining investment while non-mining related industries continue to struggle.
The RBA has also indicated that a soft jobs market and slower wage growth has
meant that inflationary pressures seem of little concern. This has given the market
reason to believe further cuts to interest rates will be seen next year to support the
underperforming sectors of our economy.
The market is showing early signs of a “fear of missing out” as buying begets buying and more cash is pushed into equities from the sidelines. If price get ahead of company earnings potential we could see a quick correction to silence Santa’s Christmas rally.