Market Commentary: l’accordo sul fiscal cliff atteso tra Natale e Capodanno
Il recente rally di mercato potrebbe avere vita breve, così come nuovi ritocchi all’insù essere assai limitati specie se i policymakers prevedono che verrà raggiunto un accordo sul Fiscal Cliff tra Natale e Capodanno. Anche gli scambi potrebbero assottigliarsi in questi giorni, a meno di sviluppi significativi su questo fronte. Da questo punto di vista non ci si aspettano grandi reazioni dalla pubblicazione dell’ultima revisione del Pil americano del terzo trimestre oggi (per quanto possa essere ulteriormente migliorativa) mentre la calma apparente che avvolge l’Europa potrebbe falsare la realtà, visto che la crisi economica è sempre pronta a rialzare la testa (come potrebbero dimostrare anche gli ultimi dati sulle vendite al dettaglio in Italia per il mese di ottobre in uscita oggi).
La formazione di una candela Doji sul grafico dell’Eurodollaro mostrerebbe che i massimi appena segnati potrebbero non venire più ripresi tanto presto e che potremmo trovarci all’inizio di un veloce ritracciamento verso 1,3170. Probabile sell-off anche per il cambio Sterlina-USD con supporto a 1,6180; indebolimento della moneta unica contro la Sterlina che potrebbe ora testare il supporto di 0,8100. Si mantiene in corsa per 85,55 il DollaroYen.
Fiscal cliff talks stall
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
In scenes reminiscent of the debt ceiling debacle of 2011 US markets slid back last night as the impasse in the fiscal cliff talks played out along party lines, while ratings agency Fitch hinted at the risk of a ratings cut if the current impasse continued . In echoes of the summer of 2011 the Republicans said they would pass a “plan B” budget that they knew the White House would find unacceptable, given that President Obama had said he would already veto it.
In any case the recent rally has all the hallmarks of looking a little stretched in a classic buy the rumour sell the fact kind of way as the deadline approaches for a solution to the fiscal cliff. This suggests any further upside could well be limited, especially if politicians look as if they could leave a resolution to the period between Christmas and New Year.
Last night’s decision by the Bank of Japan to add another 10 trillion yen to its easing program didn’t come as too much of a surprise given recent speculation in the wake of recent economic data. There was no decision with respect to a specific inflation target though, not too much of a surprise, despite recent political commentary, though the subject will likely be discussed in the coming weeks and months in light of recent political developments and the election of the new much more interventionist Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Though investors appear to have tapped into a wider calm surrounding Europe, with peripheral bond yields continuing to fall back there remains that nagging reality that the crisis is merely lying dormant. The problems surrounding the European economy certainly haven’t gone away and investors could well get reminded of that with the publication of Italian retail sales numbers later today for October which are expected to come in flat.
UK consumers have proved to be a fairly resilient bunch this year with retail sales overall for 2012 up over 1%, even accounting for the October decline of 0.8%. This can be partly be put down to the Diamond Jubilee, Euro 2012 and the Olympics, but nonetheless given how high inflation has been relative to average earnings growth, the numbers aren’t too shabby. In any case the November numbers aren’t expected to be spectacular, but a 0.4% gain is expected with the lead-up to Christmas likely to be key with respect to Q4 GDP, and whether or not the UK is heading for a triple dip recession.
Moving on to the US and the latest weekly jobless claims numbers are expected to show a slight rise to 358k from last week’s surprisingly low 343k number. The last revision if Q3 GDP is expected to show another slight improvement from 2.7% to 2.8%, on the back of improved trade balance revisions and higher inventories, while investors will be hoping that the December Philadelphia Fed performs better than the Empire manufacturing did earlier this week. Expectations are for an improvement to -2.7 from -10.7.
EURUSD – the euro hit 1.3305 but still managed to close on its lows with a classic gravestone Doji on the daily charts. This suggests we could well have seen the highs in the short term. As such we could well be in line for a sharp pullback towards 1.3170. A move back below 1.3170 suggests a deeper pullback towards 1.3020 and then 1.2880. Only a move below the 1.2880 level opens up a move back towards the trend line support from the 1.2050 low, which now sits at 1.2825, and the 200 day MA at 1.2790.
GBPUSD – a failed attempt to break through the November highs at 1.6310 saw the cable also post a gravestone Doji, suggesting we could be ripe for a sell-off. Support still remains at 1.6180 which had acted as resistance on the way up. Trend line support from the 1.5830 lows now comes in at 1.6090, while the key support remains at 1.5980. Only a break through here targets major trend line support at 1.5885 from the 1.5270 lows, the 200 day MA at 1.5880 as well as 1.5660.
EURGBP – another test of the 0.8165 level has failed once again keeping the risks for a move lower, while support at 0.8100 serves to limit the downside. The risk still remains for a move to the 0.8300 level, while a break below the 0.8080 level suggests a move back towards 0.8045 and trend line support from the July lows at 0.7755 which remains the key level for the uptrend to continue.
USDJPY – we continue to remain on course for the 2011 highs at 85.55. Last week’s close at 83.55 should act as some form of support, though we could well slip back as far as the breakout level at 82.80. If we do drop below this then there remains solid support at 81.70. If we break below 81.60 then the potential is there for a move towards 80.50, and even 79.90.
Flat Start To Equities Market
By Miguel Audencial (Sales Trader, CMC Markets)
The Australian equities market started the session relatively flat today despite notable losses from its US counterpart overnight. In spite of stronger crude oil prices, the energy sector is underperforming the local market in the session so far. This is most likely due to the future demand prospects of the instrument due to renewed concerns over fiscal cliff negotiations. The materials sector is also underperforming as risky assets appear to be out of favour by investors.
Volume is high so far today, but this is most likely due to the expiry of various futures and options contracts. I expect volumes will be subdued leading up to Christmas and all the way to the New Year unless there are any significant developments in the fiscal cliff negotiations. Just the other day, the Dow gained more than 100 points based on optimism caused by President Obama’s announcement that his camp is willing to adjust the taxrevenue demand to start at $400,000 instead of $250,000.
Last night, Boehner indicated the Republicans will stick to its $1 million threshold. This showed just how big the gap is. Investors quickly adjusted their risk profiles and the Dow got punished losing about 99 points.
European markets benefited from rosier news. The German Ifo Business climate index reported a higher than expected figure of 102.4 and Greek bonds got an upgrade from on its credit rating by Standard &Poor’s. US unemployment claims, US existing home sales, and the Phily Fed Manufacturing figures are due tonight. However, expect these to be placed in the back seat of any fiscal cliff related news.