A. Laidi: aumenta l’avversione al rischio, riflettori puntati sull’eurodollaro
Intraday Market Thought a cura di Ashraf Laidi, Chief Market Strategist di CMC Markets.
– Aumenta l’avversione al rischio dopo l’allargamento degli spread dei bond spagnoli e i rumors circa un possibile salvataggio del Portogallo
– Eurodollaro, attenzione alla soglia $1.3250-60. Se dovesse venire violata al ribasso si farebbero più concrete le possibilità di un calo della moneta unica superiore al 15%
– Oro, l’incapacità del metallo prezioso di beneficiare delle tensioni geopolitiche in corso lascia supporre che le quotazioni siano ora legate soprattutto alle aspettative di nuovi rialzi di tassi (probabilmente due entro il primo trimestre 2011) da parte della Cina.
EURO RISKS $1.27, GOLD CEASES LUSTRE
• The Iberian and Korean peninsulas compete for risk aversion attention as Spanish 10 year yields break out of the key 5% resistance (holding since 2008 now highest since 2002), uncertainty in Portugal’s parliament over the 2011 budget raises speculation of a EU bailout for Lisbon, while North Korea threatens to “annihilate” Seoul stronghold. Each of these factors will serve to offset any positivism from US retailers.
• If history repeats, EURUSD could drop a least 15% from here
• Gold’s inability to extend gains during the Korean geopolical tensions emerges from the rising cost of USD LIBOR, and lingering fears of additional rate hikes from China (Two more rate hikes of at least 27 bps are expected in Q1 2011)
EURUSD is set on a path towards the important $1.3250-60s trendline support (from June low), a break below which risks dragging further sell-off towards $1.2700. We warned in Tuesday’s email about the implications of a break below the 55-week moving average. The last 2 times (blue circles in chart) EURUSD broke below its 55 WMA was in January 2010 (Greece) and August 2008 (deleveraging crisis), leading to a 16-18% decline in each case. Again, in order for this negative formation to hold valid, EURUSD must close this week below $1.3260-50. Otherwise, euro bulls will require a rebound above $1.35 next week for the downtrend to be curbed.
What Happened to Gold’s Safe Haven Status?
Gold’s inability to extend gains during the Korean geopolical tensions emerges from the rising cost of USD LIBOR, and lingering fears of additional rate hikes from China.
One of the main differences between today and Feb-May (during Greek sovereign crisis) is that the role of the Chinese tightening stands in the way of any prolonged gold buying. Chinese tightening poses a negative for the “risk trade” via the potential of hampering demand for commodities. In contrast, last Spring’s Greece crisis was a green light to buy gold vs. EUR and USD. At the time, China’s tightening was limited to timid hikes in bank’s reserve requirement ratios. Today, however, with CPI jumping to 4.4% annually presents more urgency to raise interest rates, which is an obstacle for base and precious metals. The Oct 19 rate hike was the first increase since Dec 2007. Two more rate hikes of at least 27 bps are expected in Q1 2011.