M. Hewson: il dollaro in scia delle incertezze europee, dell’inflazione cinese e delle vendite prenatalizie
Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets.
– Euro ancora sotto pressione (possibile calo fino a $1.2795) sui dubbi che il 7 dicembre prossimo il Parlamento irlandese possa approvare la manovra destinata, tra le altre cose, ad autorizzare come parte rilevante dell’intervento un prelievo di 17,5 miliardi di euro dal Fondo pensione di riserva nazionale
– Dollaro in rafforzamento sulla base di svariati fattori: aumento del rischio default per altri Paesi europei, previsioni di ulteriori aumenti dei tassi in Cina e notizie positive derivanti dalle vendite prenatalizie dell’ultima settimana. Attesa oggi per il dato relativo alla fiducia dei consumatori per il mese di novembre
– Principali cross-spot valutari
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London –30th November 2010
If the intention of the weekend bailout package agreed at the weekend was intended to send a signal to the market that European ministers were up to the challenges presented by the unfolding crisis in Europe, then yesterday’s reaction seemed to suggest that they failed miserably.
There remains the major concern that given the precarious state the Irish government finds itself in politically, that the fiscal budget will not get passed on 7th December on the basis that at least €17.5bn of the bailout fund is coming from Irish pension funds and cash reserves. Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Fein have all vowed to vote against the austerity budget in early December on this basis.
There is also a sense that the money being provided may not be enough and even if it is there is the possibility it may never get paid back given the high rate of interest being charged on some of it.
A lacklustre Italian bond auction yesterday added to the prevailing sense of uncertainty in bond markets as CDS spreads again increased to record levels for Portugal and Spanish bonds. There were also the first signs that a contagion backdraft has started to spill over to Belgian and Italian bonds with 10 year Italian yields pushing above 4.5%.
The pound had a slightly better day after the Office for Budget Responsibility upped its growth forecast for 2010 by 0.6% to 1.8%, though it trimmed its forecasts for 2011 and 2012 by 0.2%. However the release of Gfk UK Consumer confidence for November came in slightly worse than expected at -21 against an expectation of -19 and this has pushed sterling back from its highs.
The US dollar has continued to push higher against its currency peers on the back of the debt concerns in Europe as well as fears that China may act to further tighten fiscal policy in the coming weeks.
Other factors buoying the dollar include positive retail sales figures from Black Friday, as well as encouraging sales figures from Cyber Monday which suggested that the US economy could get a pre Christmas e-commerce sales boost. Today’s US Consumer confidence figures for November will be closely scrutinised for further confirmation of a gradual turn around in sentiment with expectations of a rise to 52.6 from last months 50.2. Chicago PMI which is released 15 minutes earlier, is expected to decline slightly to 60 from last months 60.6.
EURUSD – the single currency has continued its recent declines dipping below the 200 day moving average at 1.3130 and also breaking below the 50% retracement level of the 1.1880/1.4280 up move at 1.3080, touching 1.3060 before rebounding. Last nights daily close on the cusp of the 200 day at 1.3130 could be quite negative for the euro, and increases the risk for further declines towards 1.2795 which is 61.8% retracement of the 1.1880/1.4280 up move. However the single currency needs to push and hold below the 1.3080 level first. Upside resistance should come in around yesterday’s highs around 1.3350/60. GBPUSD – the pound stopped a little short of the 1.5510 38.2% retracement level (1.4230/1.6300) yesterday rebounding from 1.5525. This level remains a key support level and a break below this level and trend line support at 1.5465 from the 1.4230 lows, would then target 1.5265 which is 50% retracement of the same up move. It would be a surprise to break the 1.5510 on the first attempt as cable does have a tendency to squeeze short positions and as such we could see a rally back towards 1.5730.
EURGBP – it would appear that patience has finally been rewarded in this pair though we haven’t quite got to the 0.8400 level yet, touching 0.8410 yesterday. While we stay below the trend line resistance from the 0.8940 highs at 0.8550 then the risk remains for a test of the 0.8400 level, which is 61.8% retracement of the 0.8070/0.8940 up move, a break of which re-targets the 0.8100 area.
USDJPY – the dollar continues to firm up against the yen slowly pushing beyond the 84.20 yesterday as a weakening yen now brings with it the possibility of a test of the 85.80 level which is 38.2% retracement of the down move from the high this year at 94.98, to the lows at 80.25. To push on towards the 85.80 level the market needs to hold above 83.75 trend line support from the 9th November lows at 80.55 as well as the 50 day moving average and support around 82.50 to keep the upward momentum intact. Only a break back below 82.70 would have the potential to re-target the 81.80 area.