M. Hewson: la Bce spinge al rialzo l’euro, attenzione a S&P

Scritto il alle 12:18 da cmcmarkets


Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets.

In evidenza
• Euro in recupero sulla scia del proseguimento del programma di riacquisto dei bond da parte della Bce. Rimane comunqe intatto il target al ribasso di $1.2795, S&P potrebbe tagliare ulteriormente il rating della Grecia
• Dollaro, determinante attendere la pubblicazione di oggi sul dato dei non-farming payrolls. Una lettura negativa potrebbe accelerare il movimento al ribasso del biglietto verde fino a $1.3360
• Principali cross-spot valutari

London –3rd December 2010

The single currency continued its recent rise after yesterday’s ECB press conference saw Trichet announce that the central bank would be continuing its accommodative monetary policy, and its special 3 month liquidity measures were being extended over the first quarter of 2011, with a “full allotment” at 1%, to help alleviate short term cash flow problems.
There were also reports that the ECB was buying more sovereign bonds which caused drops in peripheral bond yields across the board, which caused the euro to rally off its lows.
Despite these measures, which could be described as a form of QE in spite of the ECB’s claims to the contrary, the euro has continued to rebound, however while the underlying issue of dealing with the debt problems is left unresolved; the single currency remains likely to resume its downward path and remain under pressure. As if to highlight the problems facing peripheral Europe ratings agency Standard and Poors suggested it may well have to lower its credit rating on Greece again in the next few months as the economy continues to contract.
Today’s US non-farm payrolls for November could be the catalyst that pulls the US dollar back around after two successive days of falls on some mixed economic data.  Yesterday’s poor jobless claims and weak housing data dented some confidence but the payrolls could well change that. Expectations are for a rise of 145k, down slightly from last months 151k, but it is the private payrolls figure which could be the most important with a rise of 155k expected.
The pound has slipped back against the single currency despite better than expected PMI data this week. Today’s November Services PMI is expected to show a figure of 53.2 unchanged from the previous month, however a better figure could well indicate that Q4 growth could well beat expectations in the same way Q3 growth did. 

EURUSD – yesterday’s continued rally and bullish daily candlestick reversal of the previous day the single currency has maintained its resilience and could rally back as far as 1.3360 in the event of a poorly received US payroll number.  However in the long term, last months bearish engulfing candle should continue to outweigh, especially in light of what happened on the previous two occasions we have seen this candle over the last ten years. With this in mind the target of 1.2795, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1880/1.4280 up move, remains intact, but the euro does have the capacity to squeeze to trend line resistance at 1.3420 from last months highs at 1.4280 without undermining the bearish scenario. 

GBPUSD – the twin supports between trend line support at 1.5470/80 from the 1.4230 lows and the 38.2% retracement level at 1.5510 continue to hold the pound up and prevent further declines towards the 1.5265 level which is a 50% retracement of the up move from 1.4230 to the highs at 1.6300.  As indicated earlier this week the pound has the capacity to retest towards the 1.5730 area.

EURGBP – the bearish scenario looks to be under the threat after yesterday’s gains in the single currency, which took out a number of resistance levels, however there is one final resistance level from the recent highs at 0.8940, coming in around 0.8500, which also coincides with the 61.8% retracement of the move from the 0.8596 highs to the lows around 0.8330. A move through here would re-target the 200 day MA at 0.8550. The expectation remains for a test of trend line support at 0.8280 from the June lows at 0.8065 in the first instance. The long term target remains the 0.8100 area but this could take awhile to unfold. 

USDJPY – despite the fact that US 10 year bond yields have pushed up near 3% the dollar has struggled to follow them, however the view for a higher dollar remains despite yesterdays falls back to the 83.60 area.
The potential for a move to test of the 85.80 level is still intact and would only be negated by a fall through the 50 day moving average and support around the 82.50 level.
Commento Forex 031210

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