M. Hewson: la domanda di Treasury indebolisce il dollaro

Scritto il alle 12:15 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets.

In evidenza
• Euro, rimbalzo a seguito della forte domanda di titoli governativi Usa che ha provocato una discesa dei rendimenti e un indebolimento del dollaro
• Principali cross spot valutari


London –10th December 2010
The single currency has remained in the doldrums over the past 24 hours on the back ratings agency Fitch announcing a downgrade of Ireland, three notches to BBB+ with a stable outlook. Fitch has said that the downgrade reflected the restructuring of the banking system and the risks to growth. However the euro managed to recover from its lows after strong demand at a US 30 year auction sent yields back from their recent highs, and weakened the dollar.

An announcement that the Irish opposition would vote against the EU/IMF bailout when it is voted on next week also weighed on the single currency, but this wasn’t really anything new, given that they didn’t vote for the budget and that got narrowly passed, however yesterday’s events act as a timely reminder, if one were needed, of the problems facing Europe, and what could happen if the crisis threatens to spread to Spain. These factors combined with continued bickering amongst European leaders about the viability of a joint euro region bond has done nothing to alleviate concerns of an escalation of the crisis. Germany, Austria and France remain opposed to the idea on the basis their borrowing costs would rise.

The pound shrugged off a decline in house prices and a worse than expected trade deficit for October, due to rising imports, to continue to push the euro lower as concerns about debt problems in Europe continue to weigh.  The Bank of England, as expected, left monetary policy unchanged as concerns about the high rate of inflation continue to linger.
Today’s Producer prices for November should offer some clues as to whether these pressures are starting to ease, however expectations are for these pressures to remain fairly sticky with annual PPI output prices expected to stay around 4% and input prices to increase to 8.3%.US trade balance numbers are also due out for October with expectations for a deficit of $43.8bn, while later on University of Michigan Confidence for December is expected to increase to 72, from last months 71.6.

EURUSD – the single currency again fell towards the 1.3180 support and traded slightly below it, however the move proved unsustainable and the euro rebounded back. Until such time the single currency is able to sustain a move below the support at 1.3180 then the euro will be vulnerable to short squeezes. This support level is the next obstacle to a test back towards 1.3000. In the meantime look for resistance around 1.3320 and 1.3400.  While below the 1.3470 level, which is 38.2% retracement of the down move of 1.4280/1.2965 the momentum remains firmly anchored to the down side.  With this in mind the target of 1.2795, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1880/1.4280 up move, remains intact.

GBPUSD – as expected the pound managed to test the trend line resistance at 1.5840/50 from the 1.6300 highs, however the failure to break above it keeps the momentum tilted to the downside. It would need a break above this trend line, now at 1.5820 to target a move to 1.5890. The next support still remains around the 1.5655/60 level and this weeks lows, while below that the major support remains above trend line support at 1.5500/10 from the 1.4230 lows, and the 38.2% retracement level at 1.5510. The 1.5265 50% retracement level remains the longer term target on a break below 1.5500. 

EURGBP – the single currency continues to find rallies difficult to sustain but it has as yet also failed to really re-test the previous lows around 0.8330.  Until the momentum is able to sustain a move below this support the single currency remains susceptible to short squeezes back towards the old support lows at 0.8445/50 and behind that at 0.8500. Only a break above the 200 day MA around 0.8545/50 would undermine the move towards a test of trend line support at 0.8290 from the June lows at 0.8065 in the first instance.

USDJPY – the dollar has as yet been unable to overcome the highs between 84.20/40 and until it does so will be susceptible to pullbacks lower. A slide back in US yields has also weighed on the dollar here but the recent up trend remains intact. There is interim support around the 83.30 area. The potential for a move to test the 85.80 level on a break above 84.20/40 remains intact and would only be negated by a fall through the 50 day moving average and support around the 82.35/45 level, which would then target 81.80.

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