M. Hewson: euro sotto pressione nonostante la retorica governativa

Scritto il alle 12:09 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets.

In evidenza
• Euro ancora sotto pressione nonostante i commenti “supportivi” da parte dei governi, che il mercato inizia a bollare come pura retorica.
• Dollaro supportato dal rialzo dei rendimenti sui titoli di Stato. Settimana cruciale per i dati in uscita e la Fed, che si stima possa mantenere inalterata a $ 600 mld la manovra di QE2
• Sterlina sotto i riflettori per i dati macro in uscita questa settimana
• Principali cross-spot valutari


London –13th December 2010

Friday’s decision by the Chinese authorities to raise their bank reserve requirements, for the 6th time this year, by 50 basis points from the 20th December, was a little unexpected in that the market had expected a rate hike. The decision was even more surprising given that Saturday’s inflation data came in much than expected at 5.1%.  It seems that the Chinese appear to be more concerned about attracting too much in the way of capital inflows than price pressures at the moment hence the inaction, but even allowing for that it appears another hike is only a matter of time.

The pound looks set for an important week this week with inflation, unemployment and retail sales data due out, even as it continues to do fairly well against the single currency. Producer prices output data came in just below 4% year on year for November on Friday, indicating that inflationary pressures still remain a factor in the UK economy.Input prices have been delayed until today due to data problems, with expectations set for a rise of 8.3% (YoY) while tomorrow the CPI data is due out, and is expected to stay constant at 3.2% (YoY), though it wouldn’t surprise if it came in higher given the surge in commodity prices in recent months.

The single currency has continued to remain under pressure with bond spreads continuing to widen again, despite supportive statements from Messrs Sarkozy of France and Merkel of Germany on Friday, who both indicated that they would do whatever it took to support the euro. This was a view reiterated at the weekend by Germany’s finance minister Schaeuble ahead of this weeks European union meeting to discuss a permanent rescue mechanism for indebted or insolvent nations from 2013.

However markets appear now immune to such rhetoric on the basis that talk is cheap, and there being no discernible evidence in terms of action thus far that the authorities have the ability, or consensus to get ahead of the crisis.  The US dollar while being underpinned by rising treasury yields also faces a key week from a data point of view, with the FOMC and retail sales for November tomorrow, followed by inflation data on Wednesday. Expectations are for the Fed to keep its stimulus plan unchanged at $600bn despite the worse than expected employment data early this month.

EURUSD – the single currency continues to find rallies short lived with short term resistance coming in at 1.3335 from this month’s high at 1.3435. A sustained break below the recent lows between 1.3165/80 remains the catalyst for a retest of the 1.3000 level and the previous lows around 1.2965. In the meantime look for resistance around 1.3320 and 1.3440.  While the euro remains below the 1.3470 level, which is 38.2% retracement of the down move of 1.4280/1.2965 the momentum remains firmly anchored to the down side. With this in mind the target of 1.2795, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1880/1.4280 up move, remains intact.

GBPUSD – Friday’s brief break above the 1.5820 trend line on Friday saw a short push to 1.5860, however the momentum remained difficult to sustain, falling short of the key resistance which remains around the 1.5890 level which is 50% of the down move from 1.6300/1.5485. It seems the choppy range looks set to continue with the key support remaining around the 1.5655/60 level and last weeks lows, while below that the major support remains above trend line support at 1.5540/50 from the 1.4230 lows, and the 38.2% retracement level at 1.5510. The 1.5265 50% retracement level remains the longer term target on a break below 1.5500. 

EURGBP – despite the stubborn nature of its rallies the downtrend remains intact here and the single currency looks set to re-test the previous lows around 0.8330. A break below the November lows would then open up the possibility of a move towards trend line support from the 0.8065 lows at 0.8295. Until the momentum is able to sustain a move below this support the single currency remains susceptible to short squeezes back towards the old support lows at 0.8445/50 and behind that at 0.8500. Only a break above the 200 day MA around 0.8530 would undermine the potential for a move lower.

USDJPY – despite the dollar not as yet being able to overcome the highs between 84.20/40 the upside potential remains intact as US 10 year yields retain their firmer tone. Friday’s dip lower fell short of the 83.30 support at 83.45 and this remains a key area for further gains.
The potential for a move to test the 85.80 level on a break above 84.20/40 remains intact and would only be negated by a fall through the 50 day moving average and support around the 82.35/45 level, which would then target 81.80.

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