A. Laidi: i rendimenti dei decennali Usa supportano il dollaro
• Dollaro ben supportato dalla fermezza della Fed e dai rendimenti dei decennali, sui massimi degli ultimi sei mesi
• Euro ancora bloccato in un canale ribassista a causa dell’incapacità di chiudere la seduta sopra la soglia tecnica di $1.3470, fatto che riflette fondamentali ancora deboli a causa delle pressioni delle agenzie di rating su Belgio e Portogallo, delle difficoltà politiche del Governo italiano, del dissenso sull’Eurobond e delle incretezze che tuttora gravano sulla manovra irlandese.
• EuroFrancoSvizzero è il cambio che meglio riflette la debolezza della moneta unica, vicina ai minimi record di 1.2765
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London –15th December 2010
The release of better than expected US retail sales data for November managed to stem the slide in the dollar yesterday after Moody’s comments about the US “AAA” rating and the tax cuts. The rise in US 10 year bond yields above the 3.36% level 61.8% retracement level also helped support the greenback and pull it off its lows. The FOMC’s decision to continue with the bond purchase program agreed at the last meeting without any changes also helped support the slightly stronger dollar sentiment, disappointing those who thought the central bank might step up or increase their program. There were no surprises in the statement with Thomas Hoenig still dissenting and the Fed expressing the same concerns about unemployment and the low levels of inflation as they did last month.
In any case most of the dollar recovery had more or less happened before last nights decision, as events in Europe continued to weigh more heavily on the euro’s recent resurgence.
Ratings agency Standard and Poors decision to downgrade Belgium to a negative outlook, due to its lack of government in the last six months, and Spanish bill yields jumping by 106 basis points to 3.72% were part of other half of the reason for the sell-off as was the very narrow vote of confidence received by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in yesterday’s no confidence vote in Rome, which resulted in the outbreak of violence in the streets.
This morning’s decision by Moodys to put Spain’s “Aa1” rating on review for a possible downgrade has also hit sentiment and as such keeps the fiscal focus firmly on Europe.
Whilst concern remains about Europe’s ability to deal with its massive fiscal problems the euro will continue to be pushed and pulled as sentiment ebbs and flows from risk on to risk off, and with peripheral bond yields continuing to feel the strain the euro will continue to feel the pressure to the downside. In the UK CPI inflation continued to rise coming in at 3.3%, above expectations on the back of firmer food and commodity prices, and the likelihood is starting to dawn that it will stay high for some time, making life a little uncomfortable for the monetary doves like Adam Posen on the MPC. It remains quite likely that further QE is now off the table for the foreseeable future, even though risks remain to growth, not least today’s release of November UK claimant count figures which are expected to come in flat from Octobers reduction of 3,700, while the ILO unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.7%. In the afternoon US CPI data for November will also be a key test with expectations of a year on year rise of 1.1%, slightly down from last months 1.2%. Empire manufacturing and industrial production figures are also due out, as markets look for the recent slow improvements in both measures to continue.
EURUSD – the single currency seemed determined to test the mettle of any short positions yesterday as it squeezed all the way back to 1.3500 but was unable to close beyond the 1.3470 38.2% retracement of the down move of 1.4280/1.2965. It also closed below the previous highs of 1.3435/40 just about keeping the downside scenario intact and in the process posted a bearish daily doji candle on the daily charts as well. While the euro remains unable to close above these highs and the 1.3470 level, the momentum remains firmly anchored towards the down side. A sustained break below the recent lows between 1.3170/80 remains the catalyst for a retest of the 1.3000 level and the previous lows around 1.2965.
GBPUSD – another test beyond 1.5900 was again rebuffed yesterday as the pound turned lower away from the key resistance at the 1.5890 level which is 50% of the down move from 1.6300/1.5485. Only a close above 1.5900 targets the 1.5985 level which would be a 61.8% retracement of the same move. Until the pound is able to close above 1.5900 it would seem that the recent choppy range could well continue with the key support remaining around the 1.5655/60 level, and last weeks lows. Below that the major support remains above trend line support at 1.5550/60 from the 1.4230 lows, and the 38.2% retracement level at 1.5510. The 1.5265 50% retracement level remains the longer term target on a break below 1.5500.
EURGBP – the continued squeeze in the single currency has so far been unable to overcome the last obstacle in the form of the 0.8500 level and the 200 day MA at 0.8525. Until such times as the market is able to take the euro back above 0.8500 and the 200 day MA at 0.8525, the downside pressure looks likely to remain intact. A break below the November lows at 0.8330 would then open up the possibility of a move towards trend line support from the 0.8065 lows at 0.8295.
USDJPY – after the failure earlier this week to break above resistance at 84.20/40 the US dollar slipped back below 83.00 before rebounding from lows of around 82.85, but crucially still above the 50 day MA and support around 82.35/45. The current rally needs to overcome the 83.70/80 area to establish a move back to 84.20 or we could see a deeper sell-off back towards the weeks lows around 82.35/40. The potential for a move to test the 85.80 level on a break above 84.20/40 remains intact and would only be negated by a fall through the 50 day moving average and support around the 82.35/45 level, which would then target 81.80.
Commento Forex 151210
YIELDS IGNORE QE2 TO USD BENEFITLondon – 15th December 2010
USD stabilizes as rising US 10 year yields hit a fresh 6-month high at 3.42%, blatantly ignoring the QE2 and increasingly leaning towards the fiscal-GDP construct that is driving bonds. The broadly positive Nov retail sales report was accompanied by upward revisions in Sept & Oct. Aside from the stronger than expected Nov 0.8% rise in retail sales and 1.2% rise in ex-autos, the 0.9% increase in exautos/ gasoline/building materials was the highest since August. US-German 10-year yield spread (US minus German 10 yr yields) hits 43 bps, the highest since August and breaking above its 200-day MA for the 1st time since July. US-JPN 10 year spread hits 7-month high at 2.20%. The USD attempts further stabilization after Monday’s double blow from Moody’s cautious remarks about the US triple AAA rating in light of Obama’s tax cuts and lack of interest rate hike from China. Markets continue to anticipate an increase in Chinese lending/borrowing rates in addition to the latest hike in reserve requirement ratios to address escalating inflation.
EURUSD has yet to confirm Monday’s rebound as it must maintain a close above $1.34 for a convincing break above the 55-week MA ($1.3380). This is a case of technical failure justifying faltering fundamentals (lack of definite Irish agreement, prolonged dissent regarding Eurobond issue among EU and Fitch talk of a downgrade of Belgium’s AA+ rating in light of political uncertainty). EURUSD remains vulnerable to retesting $1.3250, followed by $1.30. Euro’s woes are clearly shown against the franc, as EURCHF trades 60 centimes away from its all time low of 1.2765 reached in September. GBPUSD shedding 130 pts despite 6-month high CPI at 3.3% after failing the 55-day MA of $1.5895, coinciding with the 50% retracement of its $1.6296-$1.5490 decline at $1.5895. We expect a shortlived attempt to regain $1.5810s before gradually pulling back towards $1.5680.