M. Hewson: il deterioramento degli spread tiene l’euro sotto pressione

Scritto il alle 12:20 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets.

In evidenza
• Euro ancora sotto pressione ritesterà quota $1.3170/80 sulla scorta del continuo deterioramento degli spread tra titoli tedeschi e quelli dei Paesi periferici
• Sterlina, previsto un miglioramento delle quotazioni in attesa della pubblicazione delle vendite al dettaglio di Novembre
• Principali cross-spot valutari

London –16th December 2010

The pound took a hammering yesterday on a combination of factors as the ILO measure of unemployment rose to 7.9% from 7.7%, however it was fears about UK banks exposure to Spanish debt that really put the skids under it, as well as slightly better than expected US economic data. US industrial production for November rose 0.4%, its highest level since July, while capacity utilisation touched its highest level since October 2008 at 75.2% and this caused the US dollar to rally as yields on US treasuries hit their highest levels for over 6 months. Weekly jobless claims out today are expected to increase slightly to 425k from last weeks 421k while housing starts data for November is expected to increase by 6% from the previous month’s 11.7% decline.  In the UK today the pound will be hoping for some respite with the release of retail sales data for November, with expectations of a rise of 0.4%, which should translate to a year on year figure of 0.7%.

The single currency also slid back after Moodys put Spain’s “Aa1” rating on review for a possible downgrade; because of funding concerns in the early part of 2011, while civil unrest in Greece and Italy also weighed on sentiment.  Germany’s insistence that the bailout fund should remain at €750bn, with no increase suggested that political division was still the order of the day within Europe, though the Germans did hint that the ECB could well be provided with more capital to help purchase peripheral bonds, as it starts to run out of money.  The ECB could well need the money quite soon as yields between German and Spanish 10Y bonds continue to widen while Portugal also suffered yesterday selling €500m worth of 3 month T-bills at 3.4%, nearly double the previous yield of 1.8%.
The start of today’s European summit will be overshadowed by Angela Merkel’s starting position that “strict conditions” will be tied to any sort of aid for countries requiring help under a planned permanent rescue system that leaders are set to discuss from 5pm today, with Merkel opposed to the idea of Euro zone bonds which would put German financing costs up, putting her at odds with Luxembourg PM and Eurogroup chairman Juncker.

Germany is also opposed to the idea of European money, or their money to be more to the point, to buy peripheral governments’ bonds directly, boosting the EFSF’s size, or redrafting rules to make more money available, due to the fact that it could well be illegal under German constitutional law.

EURUSD – as suspected the rally earlier this week turned out to be unsustainable and the single currency looks set to test back towards the 1.3170/80 lows of this week. The 1.3470 38.2% retracement of the down move of 1.4280/1.2965 did its job even if it looked a little doubtful at the time. The bearish daily doji candle on the daily charts on Tuesday acted as a pretty good indicator. However we need a sustained break below 1.3170/80 to re-test the 1.3080 level which is 50% of the 1.1880/1.4280 up move, which we were unable to close below when we traded at 1.2965 in November.

GBPUSD – the pound has had a nightmare in the past two days failing at the 1.5890/00 area which is 50% of the down move from 1.6300/1.5485, and also the 50 day MA and falling quite aggressively. The fall below last week’s lows at 1.5655/60 level, and trend line support at 1.5550/60 from the 1.4230 lows, brings the 38.2% retracement level at 1.5510 back into focus. A close below 1.5510 brings the 1.5265 50% retracement level of the 1.4230/1.6300 up move back into play. The pound could well find resistance back towards 1.5670/80 which was around last weeks lows. 

EURGBP – the short squeeze continued yesterday topping out around 0.8548, but despite pushing above the 200 day MA at 0.8525 it failed to close above it, which just about keeps the bearish bias intact. Until such times as the market is able to close above the 0.8525/30 level then the downside scenario should remain intact. Interim support can be found around yesterday’s lows at 0.8450/60.  A break below the November lows at 0.8330 would then open up the possibility of a move towards trend line support from the 0.8065 lows at 0.8295. 

USDJPY – rising US yields continue to support the US dollar here after this weeks rebound off 82.85. The move above 83.70/80 after yesterday’s US economic data pushed the dollar to a new 2 month high at 84.50, before it once again slipped back.  This 83.70/80 level needs to hold to keep the pressure on for a potential test of the 85.80 level and the 38.2% retracement of the 95.00/80.25 down move.  As indicated before the 50 day MA and support around 82.35/45, remains key for the current bullish momentum to be sustained.

 Commento Forex 161210

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