Hewson: sterlina, ai minimi degli ultimi tre mesi contro il dollaro
Nel suo report quotidiano, Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets, ha posto in evidenza i seguenti fattori:
– Euro, registrati i minimi di sempre contro il Franco Svizzero (target a 1.20), nonostante l’impegno della Cina di acquistare più di 5 miliardi di euro di titoli portoghesi, ritenuti a questo punto insufficienti per poter sortire qualche sorta di effetto positivo sul mercato.
– Sterlina, ai minimi degli ultimi tre mesi contro il dollaro
– Principali cross-spot valutari
Segue la versione del report odierno in lingua originale: Forex Morning Comment tornerà il 6 gennaio. A tutti i migliori Auguri di Buon Natale.
Yesterday’s release of UK November public finance figures undermined the pound after they came in much worse than expected at £22.8bn, a November record, against an expectation of £16.8bn. With UK Q3 GDP due later today, there is some concern that the recent bout of sterling strength maybe over for the pound, and it could come under further pressure if today’s final Q3 GDP figures disappoint, especially in light of the revision to the construction component for Q2 earlier this year. Expectations are for 0.8% Q/Q and 2.8% Y/Y.
The release of Bank of England minutes for December is unlikely to contain any new surprises with the splits set to remain the same at 7-1-1 with respect to Adam Posen calling for extra QE, and Andrew Sentance calling for an increase in rates by 0.25%. It will be interesting given comments by deputy governor Charles Bean earlier this month to see how the remaining members perceive the balance of risks with respect to inflation going forward.
The pledge by China to help EU countries with sovereign debt issues initially proved to be somewhat euro supportive yesterday, however downgrade worries served to knock the early stuffing out of the euro rally after first ratings agency Moody’s put Portugal on downgrade watch, while later in the day Fitch Ratings said it could cut Greece’s foreign currency rating in the next six weeks. Even a somewhat successful 3 and 6 month Spanish treasury bill auction wasn’t enough to allay negative sentiment, due to the high yield needed to get the money way.
The release of US Q3 GDP figures later day could well be US dollar supportive, if as expected they are revised upwards to 2.8% from the previous 2.5%. The news that South Korea could well hold its largest-ever live-fire drill near the military border with North Korea on Thursday could also be US dollar supportive in the lead-up to Christmas, if as expected the North Koreans react aggressively towards it via rhetoric or otherwise.
With all the concerns about stimulus packages and sovereign debt defaults the Swiss franc has continued to rise hitting all time highs against both the euro and sterling as the Swiss currency continues to benefit from safe haven inflows.
EURUSD – despite the rebound off the 50% retracement of the 1.1880/1.4280 up move at 1.3080 the focus remains very much towards the downside. The NY close on or around the 200 day MA last night does not make for a conclusive break, and as such the single currency remains susceptible to rebounds while above this key support level. It should also be noted that we have closed below the 200 day MA already but the move was quickly negated the following day at the end of November.
Only a close below these key levels around 1.3080 opens up the possibility of a test below the previous lows at 1.2965 towards 1.2795 which is the 61.8% retracement of the same move.
Any pullbacks should find selling interest around trend line resistance from the 1.3500 highs at 1.3240, as well as last Friday’s highs around 1.3370, and behind that at the key 1.3470 level, which we managed to hold below last week.
GBPUSD – the inability of the pound to rally with any conviction saw the 1.5510 level finally broken yesterday, and the emphasis now shifts to the support at the 200 day MA at 1.5390. A break of this key level could well then open up a deeper move towards the 1.5265 area which is 50% retracement of the up move from the May lows at 1.4230 to the 1.6300 highs. Pullbacks should find resistance around the 1.5570/80 area, this weeks highs as well as last Fridays highs around 1.5640.
EURGBP – the single currency remains trapped in its broad range between the 200 day MA resistance at 0.8510/15, and yesterday’s highs and the support lows around the 0.8450/60 level.
Yesterday’s short squeeze was no surprise and until such time as the single currency breaks conclusively below 0.8450 then expect the recent range to continue.
Only a break below the support level at 0.8450 could re-target the 0.8400 level on the way to a test of the November lows at 0.8330, and the possibility of a move towards trend line support from the 0.8065 lows at 0.8305. A close above 0.8525 re-targets 0.8580.
USDJPY – soft US yields have seen the dollar struggle to rally back above 84.00 slipping below 83.70 yesterday to 83.50 before rebounding.
The failure to regain the 84.00 level could see a deeper correction back towards 83.20, but the firmer bias should remain while above the 50 day MA and support around 82.50.
The key resistance, and obstacle to a move towards 85.80, the 38.2% retracement of the 95.00/80.25 down move, remains around the recent highs at 84.40/50.