M. Hewson: euro, il sentiment inizia a prezzare un rialzo del costo del denaro
Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets.
• Sterlina, occhi puntati alla pubblicazione del dato preliminare del Pil inglese per il 4Q che dovrebbe essere in calo allo 0,5%
• Euro, potrebbe continuare il rally verso 1.3745 grazie al sentiment di mercato che inizia a prezzare un rialzo dei tassi di interesse
• Dollaro USA, le attese per il discorso di Obama allo Stato dell’Unione e alcuni dati in uscita oggi potrebbero rivelarsi catalizzatori rialzisti per il biglietto verde
• Principali cross-spot valutari
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London –25th January 2011
Key event for the day will be the preliminary release of UK Q4 GDP figures as the market looks for clues as to the impact last months cold weather has had on the UK growth figures.
Expectations are for a decline from Q3’s 0.7%, to a figure of 0.5% for Q4, but in truth the number could well come in underneath that due to last months contraction in the construction and services December PMI figures. Some analysts have even low-balled a number of 0.2% and certainly last Friday’s retail sales figures won’t have helped assuage fears of that either. It should be remembered however, that up until last month most of the PMI data in Q4 had been above expectations. Nevertheless, the pound has been under some pressure over the past day or so due to concern that a poor growth figure would diminish the likelihood of a rate hike in the near term, despite the current elevated level of inflation.
In any event the public finances data for December, which is released at the same time, is not likely to make pleasant reading either, with expectations for a PSNBR of £20bn, down slightly from last months record £22.8bn. The single currency on the other hand has continued to be buoyed by positive PMI data in Germany and the euro zone yesterday, as well as market speculation that the ECB may well be forced to look at raising rates because of building inflationary pressures in the euro zone.
This speculation does appear somewhat misplaced given the perilous fiscal positions of a number of peripheral nations, however the markets seem to have got it into their heads that it’s a possibility, and as such bond spreads between US and Europe have moved in the euro’s favour as a result. US economic data out today could prompt a US dollar rebound with US consumer confidence for January expected to have increased to 54.5 from December’s 52.5, however it is more likely that the State of the Union address later today could provide a positive US dollar catalyst, and send the dollar back up after its recent declines.
EURUSD – despite a dip down to 1.3530 yesterday the single currency closed above the 1.3580 50% area and while it does so it remains on course for a test of 1.3745 which is 61.8% retracement of the down move from the 1.4280 highs to this months low at 1.2870.
Looking at the peaks from 2009 at 1.5145 there is trend line resistance coming in just above 1.4050 and there is potential to see a test of these levels, if we break 1.3750. On the downside we now need to see a move below 1.3410 to re-target the 55 week MA at 1.3270.
GBPUSD – the pound has struggled to get significantly above the 1.6020 level for the past 24 hours but on the flip side it has managed to find support around the 1.5920 area. It would need a move back below last weeks low around 1.5820 to undermine the probability of a test of 1.6175 trend line from the 1.7045 2009 highs and target 1.5720 and possibly lower. The major support remains around the 200 day MA around 1.5430.
EURGBP – the single currency continues to benefit at the pounds expense as it continues to push on from the break above 0.8500 and the 55 day and 200 day MA’s It does appear that we could well overcome the resistance around the 0.8535/40 level which is 38.2% retracement of the down move from the 0.8940 highs to the recent lows at 0.8285. If we do break above this level we could well target 0.8615 which is 50% retracement of the same move.
We need a break below the 55 and 200 day MA support levels now around 0.8460 to retarget a move back to around 0.8330.
USDJPY – the US dollar continues to find upside difficult after the failure to break above the trend line resistance at 83.20 from the 84.50 December highs. With the BOJ leaving monetary policy unchanged and only raising its GDP forecast for this year the dollar continues to look as if we move towards the low seen last week at 81.80. Despite this apparent weakness and given the current strength in 10 year US bond yields, and the differential between US and Japanese yields the target remains for a test of the 84.40/50 area on a break above last week’s highs just above 83.20, but we need to hold above the 81.80 area.