M. Hewson: riflettori puntati sulle minute BoE, l’incubo si chiama stagflazione
Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets.
• Uk, dopo il calo sorprendente del Pil oggi occhi puntati sulla pubblicazione delle minute della Bank of England. Sterlina in ritracciamento su timori di previsioni di stagflazione e double-dip
• Euro verso 1.3745
• Principali cross-spot valutari
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London –26th January 2011
After yesterday’s shocking UK Q4 GDP number all eyes turn to the release of today’s minutes of the monetary policy committee of the Bank of England. If the comments last night by Mervyn King are anything to go by the MPC is more concerned with the rise in inflation than with the fall in UK Q4 GDP, and it will be interesting to see if there was a more hawkish tone amongst policy makers given the last set of inflation numbers.
The Governor warned that inflation is likely to rise to nearly 5% before falling back next year. He also pointed that the recovery would continue to be choppy and subject to shocks. While yesterday’s GDP figures make raising rates much less likely they don’t signal the renaissance of the QE argument either, given the current levels of inflation. They do however raise the prospect of stagflation, and whisper it quietly, the prospect of a double-dip.
In the US the FOMC meets for the first time in 2011 and the Fed is likely to continue with its policy of QE2 and monthly bond buying, however the make up of the voting panel has changed with four new members, and it will be interesting to see how that will effect the voting patterns now that Kansas City Fed Thomas Hoenig no longer has a vote.
The most hawkish of the new members is Charles Plosser of the Philadelphia Fed, while Dallas Fed Richard Fisher has form in that direction. However nothing much is likely to happen with respect to changes in monetary policy on the first meeting, and the current bond buying program is more than likely to continue, but the minutes could well make for interesting reading when they are released, given the slightly different make up of the panel.
The euro has continued to benefit from more positive sentiment with respect to yesterday’s EFSF bond issue which attracted some good demand out of Asia, with Japan said to have bought around 20% of the bonds issued. However comments from German foreign minister and Merkel’s coalition partner Guido Westerwelle, suggesting that arguments about boosting the size of the EFSF are not convincing has tempered gains and continues to highlight the divisions not only within Europe but within Germany as well.
EURUSD – the single currency continues to hold above the 1.3580 50% area and while it does so it remains on course for a test of 1.3745 which is 61.8% retracement of the down move from the 1.4280 highs to this months low at 1.2870. Looking at the peaks from 2009 at 1.5145 there is trend line resistance coming in just above 1.4050 and there is potential to see a test of these levels, if we break 1.3750. On the downside we now need to see a move below 1.3410 to re-target the 55 week MA at 1.3270.
GBPUSD – the inability of the pound to sustain a move above 1.6000 and subsequent break below 1.5820 now brings into focus a move towards 1.5710 which is also a 50% retracement of the up move from the December lows at 1.5350 to the highs this month at 1.6060. A subsequent break of this level would then open up a move to 1.5620 which is 61.8% retracement of the same move. Any sterling bounces could well find resistance around 1.5860. The major support remains around the 200 day MA around 1.5430.
EURGBP – the single currency went on a tear yesterday helped in no small part by the poor sterling figures, pushing through a number of key resistance levels. Key resistance now lies at 0.8690, which is 61.8% retracement of the down move from the 0.8940 highs to the recent lows at 0.8285, having blasted through both the 38.2% and 50% levels yesterday.
The euro should now find support around the 0.8615 level which was the 50% retracement of the same move. If we break 0.8700 we could see a test of trend line resistance at 0.8770 from the all time highs at 0.9805 in 2008.
USDJPY – the 81.80 remains the key support level as the yen slowly slips back towards it as we suspected it might, given the weakness in recent rallies. Key support on a break below 81.80 lies at 81.20 which is trend line support from last years lows at 80.25. Yield differentials between US and Japanese yields still favour the US dollar a slide in US yields yesterday has caused further weakness and trying to pick a base is always difficult and usually not recommended. The target remains for a test of the 84.40/50 area on a break above trend line resistance from the recent highs at 84.50, currently at 83.10.