M. Hewson: Bini Smaghi sostiene l’euro, attenzione ai dati sul Pil Usa
• Euro in rafforzamento in seguito alle dichiarazioni di Bini Smaghi sull’inflazione e nonostante la possibilità che il Belgio possa andare incontro ad un downgrading
• Dollaro, un supporto potrebbe arrivare oggi con la pubblicazione del Pil Usa del 4Q
• Principali cross-spot valutari
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London –28th January 2011
Yesterday’s downgrade by S&P of Japan’s debt rating with a stable outlook has not only knocked the yen lower, but also diverted the markets attention away from Europe’s fiscal problems for the time being. However it also brings with it a warning that no one is immune from the current debt problems, not even the US with Moody’s warning yesterday about increasing risks to the US’s own credit rating over the next two years, if no action is taken to address its own debt problems. The US dollar has continued to remain weak, apart from against the yen, after poor weekly jobless figures yesterday saw claims increase by 51k to 454k, well above expectations, and durable goods fell for the second straight month in December, this time by 2.5%.
Hopefully today’s release of Q4 GDP figures could go some way to stemming the dollar weakness of the past few days. Expectations are for an annualized figure of 3.5%, up from Q3’s 2.6%, however given the shock earlier this week with respect to UK GDP, there could well be a sting in the tail here as well, with an undershoot, due to similarly poor weather in December.
The single currency has continued to push higher across the board after data yesterday showed European economic confidence holding near its highest levels for 3 years. Comments by ECB member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi about inflationary pressures caused by imports also helped push the single currency to new 2 month highs against the dollar.
The possibility that Belgium could undergo a ratings downgrade as a result of continuing political deadlock seems to be being ignored by the markets for now, which is somewhat surprising given the Japanese downgrade yesterday morning. The pound slipped back, especially against the single currency, after Gfk UK consumer confidence for January dropped to a 2 year low at -29 from last months -21, the biggest drop since the early 1990’s.
EURUSD – the single currency hit a high of 1.3760 yesterday before retreating, but was unable to close above 1.3745 which is the 61.8% retracement of the down move from the 1.4280 highs to the recent low at 1.2870. A break above this key level has the potential to target trend line resistance coming in just above 1.4050/60 from the 2009 peaks at 1.5145. While the euro is able to hold below this resistance area then it remains susceptible to a move back towards the 1.3580 50% retracement area. On the downside we now need to see a move below 1.3410 to re-target the 55 week MA at 1.3270.
GBPUSD – the continued resilience of the pound increases the likelihood that we could see a test back towards trend line resistance at 1.6030 from the 1.6300 December highs.
A break of this trend line could then target longer term trend line resistance at 1.6170 from the 1.7045 highs in August 2009. While below this first trend line at 1.6030, bearish sentiment remains for a move towards the 1.5710 level, which is also a 50% retracement of the up move from the December lows at 1.5350 to the highs this month at 1.6060. The major support remains around the 200 day MA around 1.5430.
EURGBP – the single currency was unable to break through the 0.8690 level earlier this week peaking at 0.8675. 0.8690 is the 61.8% retracement of the down move from the 0.8940 highs to the recent lows at 0.8285. Yesterday’s move lower stopped at 0.8580 where there is rising trend line support from the 18th January lows of 0.8332. This support now comes in at 0.8605. A break of this line could well see a drift lower, while a move back above 0.8640 could well re-target a test of this week’s high. If we break 0.8700 we could see a test of trend line resistance at 0.8770 from the all time highs at 0.9805 in 2008.
USDJPY – yesterday’s S&P downgrade of Japan’s sovereign rating to AA- keeps the focus on a “buy dips” mentality with the 81.80 level acting as intraday support. There is also trend line support at 81.25 from last year’s lows at 80.25. The target remains for a test of the 84.40/50 area on a break above the previous range highs currently around 83.20/30.