M. Hewson: le tensioni in Egitto spingono l’avversione al rischio
Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets
• Oro e Franco Svizzero attesi in rialzo sulla scia delle proteste in Egitto, sale l’avversione al rischio (anche a causa di un probabile ulteriore rialzo dei tassi in Cina questa settimana)
• Petrolio potrebbe presto tornare sopra i 100 dollari al barile
• Eurodollaro, dopo il fallimento del test a 1.3750 attesa una discesa verso 1.3570
• Principali cross-spot valutari
• Borse europee, previste aperture in ribasso
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London –31th January 2011
Economic data and central bank meetings could well play second fiddle this week if tensions continue to escalate throughout North Africa with gold, the US dollar and Swiss franc the most likely beneficiaries of a capital flight away from riskier assets.
Oil prices also surged on fears that the turmoil in Egypt could well spill-over to the Suez Canal and disrupt one of the major supply routes between the Middle East and Europe. If the uncertainty continues we could well see levels above $100 a barrel very quickly.
With the US having to play a canny political game given Egypt’s unique geopolitical location the outcome of the events playing out over the next few days could well resonate for months to come.
Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting will in all probability leave interest rates unchanged at 4.75% as the bank looks to assess the after effects of the recent floods, as well as any possible further economic damage likely from further incoming bad weather.
With the markets also concerned about a Chinese rate hike later this week, we could well have seen a tempering of risk appetite even without the recent events in Africa, in any case.
Sterling traders will be looking at this week’s release of December PMI data for further evidence of economic contraction, or evidence that last weeks Q4 GDP shock, could have potential to be revised upwards.
The focus of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting will be less about the rate level, which will likely remain unchanged at 1% and more on Trichet’s press conference afterwards.
Friday’s US January payrolls report will also be a key focus of the markets attention this week with expectations of a figure of 135k, but given recent events all these events could well become side issues.
EURUSD – the failure last week to push beyond 1.3750 the 61.8% retracement of the down move from the 1.4280 highs, to the recent low at 1.2870, has seen the single currency slip back and test support at 1.3570/80 and the 50% level. On Friday and in the process post a daily bearish engulfing candle. A close below 1.3570/80 could well signal further losses towards 1.3410 to re-target the 55 week MA at 1.3270. Only a break above this 1.3750 level has the potential to target trend line resistance coming in just above 1.4050/60 from the 2009 peaks at 1.5145.
GBPUSD – the pound continues to find its rebounds capped around the 1.6000 area and with a number of resistance levels converging above this level it will take a significant push to get it beyond the resistance at 1.6025 from the 1.6300 December highs. Even if it is able to get above here it would then need to get past longer term trend line resistance at 1.6170 from the 1.7045 highs in August 2009. As such the bias remains for a move towards the 1.5710 level, which is also a 50% retracement of the up move from the December lows at 1.5350 to the highs this month at 1.6060. The major support remains around the 200 day MA around 1.5430.
EURGBP – the single currency appears to be losing momentum after last weeks strong rebound and the close below 0.8600 on Friday suggests we could well see further declines back towards the 200 day MA at 0.8475. Only a move above 0.8690 the 61.8% retracement of the down move from the 0.8940 highs to the recent lows at 0.8285 would suggest further gains in the short term. There is also interim resistance around 0.8640.
USDJPY – did S&P downgrade Japan or not – to look at the yen you would think not as it continues to strengthen testing the lower end of the recent ranges around 81.80. Keep an eye on the trend line support at 81.25 from last year’s lows at 80.25 in the event 81.80 gives way. While above this key level the target remains for a test of the 84.40/50 area on a break above the previous range highs currently around 83.20/30.