M. Hewson: le attese di inflazione sostengono il dollaro, euro visto in calo
• Dollaro sostenuto dalle scintille di inflazione che fanno seguito al rincaro delle materie prime
• Euro, la chiusura della scorsa settimana suggerisce un ritorno verso posizioni ribassiste, prima a $1.3680 e poi 1.3528
• Principali cross-spot valutari
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 7th February 2011
Friday’s disappointing payrolls data saw a US dollar rally on rising bond yields as the market started to fret about inflation fears in the US after average earnings were shown to have trebled from 0.1% to 0.4%. With inflation surging around the world on rising commodity prices, and concern about events in the Middle East there is disquiet in some quarters that the Fed is being somewhat complacent about inflationary pressures. With the Trichet downplaying the inflationary threat in Europe after being somewhat hawkish earlier in the year, it didn’t take much to get traders covering US dollar short positions and pushing the dollar back up from its lows.
With little in the way of US economic data out until much later this week the focus early this week is more likely to be on German factory data, industrial production and retail sales data for December, on Monday and Tuesday, which could well be weather affected in the same way as UK and US data was earlier this month.
On Thursday this week the Bank of England is expected to take a decision on interest rate policy and given the recent poor Q4 GDP data, and the positive PMI data last week, the markets will be watching with interest to see whether any more policy makers join Martin Weale and Andrew Sentance in calling for a rate hike, though before that we have December trade balance data on Wednesday which will probably show some weather related effects.
EURUSD – the single currency closed on the cusp of the support around the 1.3570/80 level on Friday which suggests that we could see a rebound back towards the 1.3680 level and Friday’s high. The bearish weekly doji candle suggests that we could be in line for further declines if we break below the 100 day MA at 1.3528. Friday’s fall to 1.3545 does suggest we may have seen the highs in the short term in the single currency. Back above 1.3750 would re-target the trend line resistance coming in just above 1.4040/50 from the 2009 peaks at 1.5145. A move through the 100 day MA level would then target further losses towards 1.3410.
GBPUSD – the pound continues to find the air a little thin above 1.6200, however the congestion area between 1.6030/60 levels saw the cable rebound and this looks like a key support area, as well as rising trend line support from the 7th January low at 1.5400 coming in around 1.5970. We still have the potential to set up a move towards the November highs at 1.6300 as well as the next trend line resistance at 1.6345, which would be trend line resistance from the 2007 highs at 2.1160.
EURGBP –the closes below the 55 and 200 day MA here shifts the focus back towards the downside but we closed on the cusp of the 0.8433 area which is 61.8% retracement of the up move from the lows at 0.8285 to the highs at 0.8675. A sustained break below here could well target further losses towards 0.8370. We could see rebounds back towards the 0.8510 level which acted as support early last week as well as behind that at the 0.8580 area. Only a move above 0.8690 the 61.8% retracement of the down move from the 0.8940 highs to the recent lows at 0.8285 would suggest further gains in the short term.
USDJPY – on Friday we saw a brief spike below the trend line support at 81.30 from last year’s lows at 80.25, but it was quickly reversed and the dollar rallied strongly breaking through both 81.80 and the 82.00 level as well. It now needs to sustain these levels above 81.80 to take out trend line resistance from the 84.40/50 highs at 82.80, to kick on towards 83.20/30 the previous range highs. In the event the 81.25 level gives way we could well see a test back towards last year’s lows at 80.25.