M. Hewson: riflettori puntati sulla BoE, atteso un rafforzamento della sterlina

Scritto il alle 11:24 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment  a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets.


In evidenza
• Euro, fluttuazione in attesa del dato tedesco di oggi sulla produzione industriale.
Quadro tecnico leggermente deteriorato
• Sterlina prevista in rafforzamento nonostante non vi sia ancora l’evidenza di un cambiamento di attitudine  all’interno della BoE sufficiente ad un rialzo dei tassi
• Dollaro-Yen, cali del biglietto verde forzatamente contenuti dai rendimenti decennali sopra il 3,6%
• Principali cross-spot valutari

FOREX MORNING COMMENT

London – 8th February 2011
With little in the way of US and UK economic drivers yesterday it has been left to German factory data and bond yields to dictate currency direction over the past 24 hours. The single currency initially slipped back against the dollar yesterday, making a new 2 week low after German factory orders for December fell 3.4% against an expectation of a fall of 1.5%.
As was the case in the UK in December, the slide could well have been weather related, and today’s December German industrial production figures could well be similarly affected with expectations for a rise of 0.2% month on month.

However it rebounded later after ECB member Yves Mersch said that the central bank would not hesitate to raise rates if inflation persisted.  Given the structural weaknesses in peripheral European economies the last thing Europe needs is for Germany to start slowing down and these figures indicate that this may well be the case.

The pound has continued to remain fairly resilient trading near 3 month highs against a basket of currencies after the BRC retail sales monitor for January rose 2.3% more than reversing the December decline of 0.8%. The short sterling March futures contract has been trading at yields of 1.16%, on speculation surrounding a possible shift in monetary policy at this week’s meeting of the Bank of England monetary policy committee.

This speculation does look misplaced given the shift in the committee’s sentiment that would be required for a rate hike to happen, and we could see the pound start to slip back ahead of tomorrow’s UK trade numbers. 

EURUSD – despite an attempt to push below the 100 day MA at 1.3530 the single currency was unable to sustain the move lower, rebounding from 1.3508. There is potential for the euro to rebound back towards the 1.3680 level and Friday’s high. However the momentum appears to have turned somewhat bearish especially with the bearish weekly Doji candle. For this scenario to play out the market does need to close below the 100 day MA at 1.3530 for a move towards 1.3410 to unfold.  Back above 1.3750 would re-target the trend line resistance coming in just above 1.4040/50 from the 2009 peaks at 1.5145.

GBPUSD – the pound has remained somewhat sidelined in the past 24 hours finding support around 1.6080, but again finding it difficult to get back above the 1.6200 level.
The key congestion area between 1.6030/60 levels remains a key support area, as well as rising trend line support from the 7th January low at 1.5400 coming in around 1.5990.
There is still the potential to set up a move towards the November highs at 1.6300 as well as the next trend line resistance at 1.6345, which would be trend line resistance from the 2007 highs at 2.1160.

EURGBP –the fall below 0.8400 to hit 0.8388 yesterday keeps the focus on the downside in the longer term. The daily closes below the 55 and 200 day MA around here keeps the focus back towards the downside; however given the sharpness of the rebound yesterday we could well see a move towards 0.8480 before a renewed attempt lower. A sustained break below here could well target further losses towards 0.8370. Above 0.8480 could well re-target the 0.8510/20 area.

USDJPY – having managed to finally sustain a move the 81.80 level the US dollar didn’t look remotely like it would break below it yesterday.  However the upside was also fairly limited as well, with sellers around the 82.50 level.  With US 10 year bond yields remaining above 3.6% the downside in the dollar should remain fairly limited and any move towards 3.80% should be similarly dollar positive. The next target remains trend line resistance from the 84.40/50 highs at 82.80, to kick on towards 83.20/30 the previous range highs.  In the event the 81.25 level gives way we could well see a test back towards last year’s lows at 80.25.

Commento Forex 08022011

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