M. Hewson: il mercato punta ancora sul dollaro

Scritto il alle 11:17 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets
In evidenza
• Dollaro, ancora ricoperture sul biglietto verde a seguito del riacutizzarsi delle tensioni in Egitto e sul mercato obbligazionario dei Paesi periferici, mentre la Cina ha di nuovo alzato le riserve bancarie
• Euro in ritracciamento, più vicino a $1.3540, in attesa delle dichiarazioni di Weber di oggi
• Sterlina, mantiene le posizioni nonostante il nulla di fatto della BoE. Il market consensus resta convinto di un prossimo rialzo
• Principali cross-spot valutari


London – 11th February 2011
Yesterday’s surprise fall in the US weekly jobless numbers to their lowest levels since July 2008, at 383k saw the US dollar rally and bond yields rise, generating optimism that the trend lower in the figures would continue. Some caution should be exercised however given that during the week in question, most of the US was being battered by a massive snow storm, which could well account for the lower number.

The tension in Egypt has also seen some US dollar demand after President Mubarak decided that he would not stand down after it being widely expected he would do so fuelling some risk aversion. This aversion hasn’t been helped by renewed concerns about inflation pressures after China again raised reserve requirements for some of its banks, though South Korea held back from tightening on this occasion despite inflationary concerns of their own.

In figures out today the US trade balance for December is expected to widen to $40.5bn, while University of Michigan confidence for February is expected to show an increase to 75 from January’s 74.2. In Europe, concerns about rising Portuguese 10 year bond yields and the sustainability of them have seen the single currency sink back after the ECB again intervened to push the yields back down by buying Portuguese bonds.  Speculation about the future of Bundesbank President Axel Weber continued after he pulled out of the running to succeed Trichet has also weighed on sentiment.  He is due to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel today and he could announce his intentions after his meeting with her, after refusing to discuss them in a speech in Vienna yesterday.

Yesterday’s decision by the Bank of England to leave monetary policy unchanged didn’t precipitate the sterling sell-off one might have envisaged, and neither did the poor manufacturing data for December. It would appear that the market remains convinced of the case for firmer rates and today’s PPI data could well make the case even stronger. Year on year input prices for January are expected to increase to 12.7% from December’s 12.5%, with output prices expected to rise by 4.4%. Next weeks January CPI data is now looking all the more important with respect to rate expectations, along with the release of the Bank of England quarterly inflation report.

EURUSD – the failure to overcome the right shoulder resistance at 1.3750/60 saw the single currency slide back yesterday pushing below the support around 1.3600 before rebounding. While the right shoulder holds the onus remains on a test of the neckline around the 1.3510 level. Rebounds from the lows yesterday have been limited to 1.3645 so far.  For the move lower to play out the market needs to close below the 100 day MA at 1.3540 for a move towards 1.3410 to unfold. Back above 1.3750 would re-target the trend line resistance coming in just above 1.4020 from the 2009 peaks at 1.5145.

GBPUSD – the pound continues to find solid support just below the 1.6030 area rebounding from 1.6012 and this level has so far resisted any attempt to break down through it. Yesterday’s rebound saw the pound again struggle to get a toe hold above the 1.6120 area though we did spill over to 1.6140 before drifting back down.  For now we appear to be stuck in a range with solid support around 1.6000 and selling pressure anywhere near or around 1.6140. Until such time as the pound is able to push below 1.6000 then a move towards the November highs at 1.6300, as well as the next trend line resistance at 1.6330 cannot be ruled out. A move below the 1.6000 level would target 1.5920 initially, which is 38.2% retracement of the up move from the 1.5350 lows to the 1.6280 highs, followed by 1.5820.

– the failure yesterday to overcome the 0.8540 level eventually saw the pound break down through the 0.8480 level towards the next support level at 0.8430.  The low so far has been 0.8443 but as long as we stay below 0.8480 we should see the 0.8430 level in due course. We need to break through the 0.8420/30 area to retest this weeks low around 0.8388.

USDJPY – finally we appear to have broken to the upside with a break above 82.80 50 day MA and trend line resistance from the 84.40/50 highs, and this prompted further buying through the 83.20/30 level, the previous range highs and beyond that as the market now sets its sights on the 84.40/50 area, via the 83.68 highs of 7th January. Any pullbacks should now find support around the 82.70/80 area, with a break below targeting 82.20.

Commento Forex 11022011

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