M. Hewson: riflettori puntati sui dati statunitensi
Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets.
Tra i temi evidenziati per la giornata di oggi, attesa per i dati americani in uscita (prezzi al consumo, nuove richieste di sussidi di disoccupazione, superindice , Philadelphia Fed) che potrebbero confermare una ripresa dell’inflazione che mal si concilia con l’annunciato programma di Quantitative Easing, tanto da indurre alcuni membri della Fed a dover ripensare al programma di acquisto da 600 miliardi di dollari.
Sul mercato valutario i movimenti sulla sterlina sembrano scontare un rialzo dei tassi più lontano del previsto. Franco svizzero, oro e Brent tornano a svolgere un ruolo di bene-rifugio con il riacutizzarsi delle tensioni in Medio Oriente.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 17th February 2011
Yesterday’s release of the FOMC minutes saw the Fed upgrade its GDP forecast to a target between 3.4% and 3.9%, as it became more optimistic about the US economy, however there was disappointment that the labour market continued to act as a drag on sentiment. In a sign that Bernanke may not continue getting his own way with respect to QE some officials raised the possibility of scaling back the $600bn bond purchase program, because of fears about rising inflation in a recovering economy.
Yesterday’s US economic data seemed to suggest that inflation may be starting to take hold as core PPI data came in over double expectations at 0.5%, against expectations of 0.2%, suggesting that inflation is starting to build up in the US economy as a result of higher import costs. We shall see if these rising costs have bled through to today’s release of January CPI data which could well give further clues in this regard, with the year on year figure expected to increase to 1.6%, however analyst expectations are that the monthly figure could well fall back slightly to 0.3% from December’s 0.5%, which seems unlikely given what we’ve seen with the data released already this week. Weekly jobless claims are also due out and are expected to increase slightly from last weeks 383k to 403k.
The pound suffered some profit taking after yesterday’s Bank of England quarterly inflation report came in both hawkish and dovish in equal measure, depending on your interpretation. As an exercise in keeping the market guessing about the timing of any rate rise it worked extremely well, though the governor may need to be careful of splinters due to prolonged fence sitting.
The report downgraded the growth forecast over a two year time horizon, but it also suggested that CPI had a good chance of going above 5% by the end of the year. In any event sterling futures rallied slightly, pushing June yields down from 1.18% to around 1.12%, which suggests that a rate rise is still likely, but it may come a little later than anticipated.
The only European news of note apart from a successful Portuguese t-bill auction was the appointment of Jens Weidmann, Angela Merkel’s top economic aide, as the new head of the Bundesbank seems to have had little impact from a currency point of view, but word has it he shares the same economic views as his predecessor Axel Weber without any of the political baggage. He also gets a seat on the board of the ECB joining the other German hawk, Juergen Stark on the executive council. Continued uncertainty in the Middle East continues to keep safe haven plays such as the Swiss franc and gold fairly well supported and Brent crude near a key resistance level at $105.
EURUSD – the US dollar indexes failure to close above its 100 day MA seems to be keeping a floor under the euro and as such we closed above 1.3550 last night which could well mean that we could see a move back towards trend line resistance at 1.3630 from the January highs at 1.3862. The close back above 1.3550 doesn’t totally negate the downside scenario and a move towards 1.3200 via 1.3410. Only a move back above the right shoulder peaks at 1.3750 would do that and retarget the trend line resistance coming in just above 1.4010 from the 2009 peaks at 1.5145.
GBPUSD – yesterday’s peak at 1.6185 saw an equally rapid sell-off after the inflation report. However the pound found plenty of bids again below the 1.6000 level. As such we can just about hold onto the uptrend that’s been in place since the December lows at 1.5350. This inability to close below 1.6000 continues to frustrate the sterling bears and could continue to keep the pound susceptible to rallies back towards the November highs at 1.6300, as well as the next trend line resistance also at 1.6300 from the 2007 highs at 2.1160. A break above 1.6300 targets the 2010 highs at 1.6460. Only below the 1.6000 level could target a move towards 1.5920 which is 38.2% retracement of the up move from the 1.5350 lows to the 1.6280 highs, followed by 1.5820.
EURGBP – the pound came rapidly unstuck yesterday rebounding from a low of 0.8355 yesterday just shy of trend line support at 0.8335 from the 2009 lows at 0.8065, on the way to last months lows at 0.8285. The push back above 0.8430 could well see a spill over towards the 0.8480 area, but while we stay below this resistance then the odds of a move back lower remain intact. Back below 0.8410 look to retarget this weeks lows and the trend line support.
USDJPY – the dollar peaked just shy of 84.00 yesterday at 83.96 as the dollar looks to home in the 84.40/50 area and December 2010 highs.
Look for any pullbacks to find support around the 83.20 area and below that at 82.80 and the 50 day MA and last weeks break-out level. A break below here would then retarget the 82.20 area. The 84.40/50 area remains the overall longer term target while US bond yields remain resilient and above 3.5%.