M. Hewson: dollaro penalizzato dall’avversione al rischio e dalle prospettive di un QE3
Non si arresta il rally del Franco svizzero (nuovo record storico contro dollaro Usa) e dello Yen in ottica difensiva, sulla scia dei disordini del Nordafrica. Il dollaro americano è stato doppiamente depresso da dichiarazioni che da una parte non hanno escluso un ulteriore Quantitative Easing (QE3) e dall’altra puntellano le convinzioni dei sostenitori di un rialzo dei tassi in Europa.Per tutte queste ragioni, l’Euro si è portato sopra $1.3861 e neppure l’Election Day irlandese oggi sembra essere in grado di influire negativamente su un sentiment al rialzo. In questo scenario, i dati tedeschi sull’inflazione in uscita oggi saranno attentamente analizzati in previsione della riunione della Bce della prossima settimana.
Rimane sullo sfondo il pericolo che un improvviso rialzo del costo del denaro potrebbe rappresentare per i Paesi periferici e causarne in ultima istanza proprio quei default che si sta cercando di arginare. Anche sulla Sterlina, che ieri ha sofferto contro l’Euro, potremmo registrare un’ampia volatilità oggi qualora ci fosse una significativa revisione al rialzo del Pil del quarto trimestre.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 25th February 2011
Safe haven inflows have continued to boost the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, with the franc making new all-time highs against the US dollar, on the back the tensions in Libya, as well as some dovish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who suggested that QE3 would be considered if the economy didn’t improve, and in a double whammy for the US dollar, outgoing Bundesbank president Axel Weber stated that interest rates in Europe could only go one way, north. Unsurprisingly the single currency continues to remain well supported on the back of these comments, and today’s general election in Ireland doesn’t appear to be acting as a negative drag on sentiment for the moment.
With concerns about rising inflation in Germany, today’s February CPI data will be scrutinised closely for any evidence of rapidly rising prices, though given January’s data came in negative at -0.4%, it would be some turnaround if the figures were markedly different, however if the year on year figure is much above 2% that could enhance speculation around next week’s ECB meeting and any possible move towards a rise in interest rates.
However for all this talk about firmer rates one has to look at the whole picture in Europe, and if the ECB were to raise rates in response to German inflationary pressures then that could send peripheral European countries into a depression and possibly precipitate the next stage of the euro crisis. The pound had a bit of a bad day yesterday against the euro on the back of Weber’s comments, and today could well be a key test as we wait to see if there is a significant upward revision to the UK’s Q4 GDP numbers.
Expectations are for the revision to come in unchanged at -0.5%, which could well refocus market attention on the prospect of stagflation in the UK given that rising oil prices aren’t helping in keeping inflationary pressures at bay, and put the increasingly split Bank of England MPC in a very difficult situation when it comes to determining the next move on interest rates. Later on in the day we also have the second revision of US Q4 GDP where expectations are for a slight increase from 3.2% to 3.3%, while soon after that the final reading of University of Michigan confidence is expected to rise to 75.4 from the previous 75.1 reading.
EURUSD – the single currency continues its slow grind higher pulling back towards the February highs at 1.3861, now finding support around the previous right shoulder peaks at 1.3750. The daily close above this level now sets us up for a potential crack, on a break of 1.3860, towards trend line resistance at 1.3985 from the 2009 peaks at 1.5145. To open up the downside again the euro needs a break back below the 100 day MA around the 1.3540 level to re-target a move towards 1.3200 via 1.3410.
GBPUSD – yesterday’s fall back towards 1.6080 managed to shake out a few long positions but was able to hold above it comfortably. The cable remains confined between these lows and the November highs at 1.6300, as well as the trend line resistance now at 1.6270 from the 2007 highs at 2.1160. It has thus far failed to overcome this key resistance and until it does so a test back towards 1.6000 remains a possibility. A break above 1.6300 targets the 2010 highs at 1.6460. A break below the 1.6080 support is need to target 1.5980. A close below 1.6000 is needed to target a move towards 1.5920 which is 38.2% retracement of the up move from the 1.5350 lows to the 1.6280 highs, followed by 1.5820.
EURGBP – it would appear that the view of a weaker euro was not the correct one. The break above the 0.8520 area has the potential to open up the highs this year around 0.8670. A break above the highs this month at 0.8580 would be required to set the wheels in motion on this. Short term momentum looks massively overdone however so we could well get a correction back towards 0.8480. A move back below 0.8450 is needed to target 0.8400/10, on the way back to retarget last week’s lows and the trend line support, now at 0.8350.
USDJPY – a further decline in US bond yields saw the dollar yen lower test the major trend line support around 81.55 from the 80.25 lows. It has so far managed to hold above these levels, however a break could well target last years lows at 80.25. The US dollar needs to get back above the 83.20/30 area to re-target a move back towards the range highs, but more importantly than that US bond yields need to recover back above 3.5%, being as they seem to be at the moment, the primary drivers behind the falls in dollar yen.