M. Hewson: valute rifugio in primo piano, la Fed spinge al ribasso il dollaro
Franco Svizzero e Yen continuano a guadagnare terreno nei confronti del Dollaro Usa, indebolito dalle riaffermazioni della Fed tese a sottovalutare l’incremento dei prezzi . Sul fronte giapponese, si complica il compito della Bank of Japan che con una mano è occupata a tenere sotto controllo la risalita della moneta (per evitare il crollo delle esportazioni e conseguentemente anche dei listini azionari) mentre con l’altra continua ad iniettare liquidità nel sistema per garantirne l’operatività.Sul cambio DollaroYen ora l’attenzione è rivolta verso quota 79.80 (minimo storico del biglietto verde sullo yen registrato dopo il terremoto di Kobe del 1995). La Sterlina potrebbe perdere oggi ulteriori posizioni in concomitanza con la pubblicazione dei dati sulla disoccupazione mentre l’Euro deve riuscire ad oltrepassare la resistenza posta a $1.4035 per rafforzare il movimento verso l’alto originato dalla attese di un incremento dei tassi di interesse già nella prossima riunione della Bce ad aprile. Eventualità che gli investitori hanno iniziato a incorporare nei prezzi con maggiore attenzione a seguito dei downgrade avvenuti gli scorsi giorni e in considerazione dei danni che potrebbe arrecare ai Paesi dell’Europa periferica.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 16th March 2011
Despite yesterday’s brief rally the US dollar continues to remain weak against a basket of currencies after the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its bond purchase program through until June, by a unanimous decision. The committee also reiterated their belief that inflationary pressures remained subdued, despite the recent rises in food and energy prices, insisting that they remained “transitory,” while paying close attention to inflation expectations after recent rises in commodity prices. Today’s February US PPI data should give clues as to whether that belief is a valid one with expectations of a monthly rise of 0.6% and 4.7% year on year.
The US dollar index continues to hold above the key support line around 76.30 from the all time lows at 70.70.
The Swiss franc and Japanese yen have continued to advance against the greenback with the Swiss franc making new all-time highs against the US dollar, while the yen continues to get bought on repatriation inflows which in turn make it much more difficult for the BoJ to weaken the yen to make the Japanese currency more competitive. This morning’s actions by the Bank of Japan bring the total amount of capital injected to calm the markets to $325bn.
Any further increases in the yen will continue to weigh on the Nikkei as Japanese exporters become less competitive if the yen continues to rise. The pound could well come under further pressure today with the release of February unemployment data as well as ILO unemployment for January. The claimant count is expected to rise by 1.3k while the ILO unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.9%. The single currency has continued to remain fairly firm ahead of a widely anticipated ECB rate hike in April, but in a sign that such a move could well be fraught with danger, Moody’s downgraded Portugal’s long term credit from A1 to A3 with a negative outlook.
EURUSD – yesterday’s fall in the single currency found support at the key 1.3850/60 area and as such the onus remains on the upside while above this level. However to kick on towards the November highs of 1.4280 the euro needs to take out last weeks highs at 1.4035. There is also major trend line resistance above 1.4280 which comes in around 1.4320, which can be drawn from the all time highs at 1.6040 in 2008. While above the 1.3850/60 level the onus remains on the upside, while a move below 1.3850 re-targets the 1.3750 area and then the 100 day MA around 1.3530.
GBPUSD – no real change in view here with the key support between 1.5965 which is 38.2% retracement of the 1.5350/1.6345 up move, and 1.5980, the 55 day MA. On the other side of the range is resistance near the range highs around 1.6280, with the big resistance around the 1.6350 area. Above 1.6350 re-targets the 1.6460 area and 2010 highs. A daily close below 1.6000 is still needed to target a move towards the February lows at 1.5965 which would then be the first indication of the start of a correction lower after the gains of recent weeks towards 1.5850 which is 50% retracement of the same up move, followed by 1.5730.
EURGBP – the single currency continues to gain at the pounds expense breaking above the 0.8700 level late last night in New York. It is now pushing against the trend line resistance around 0.8705/10 from the all time highs at 0.9805. Above 0.8705/10 targets the 0.8780 area. Any pullbacks should now find support around the 0.8610 area, while a break below here would then target the support at 0.8580 from the February lows at 0.8355. Only a break below 0.8580 re-targets the 0.8500 level.
USDJPY – continued US dollar weakness and falling yields along with repatriation of yen pushes the US dollar down against the yen as the reaction of the pair looks to be mimicking the behaviour seen in 1995 after the Kobe earthquake. Overnight we see the US dollar find support around the 80.60 area, however the focus of attention remains on the all time lows at 79.80 set in 1995 soon after the Kobe disaster. The BoJ has its work cut out keeping a lid on yen strength and as such the market needs to be wary of further central bank intervention. We need to see a break above 82.40 to retarget 83.20 while being cautious about drifting down towards the lows last year at 80.25 and the 1995 lows at 79.80.