M. Hewson: possibile un ulteriore rafforzamento dello yen, attenzione anche alla sterlina
Apertura di settimana contrassegnata da un intensificazione dell’elemento geopolitico già presente la scorsa ottava: al disastro umano e ambientale -per ora irrisolto- del Giappone, si devono infatti aggiungere anche gli effetti inflattivi (già registrati sul prezzo del petrolio) del raid delle Forze Alleate sulla Libia. Sul fronte valutario, il cambio Dollaro Yen rischia di scendere nuovamente verso i livelli minimi record registrati la scorsa settimana se non vi saranno ulteriori interventi coordinati da parte dei Paesi G7, mentre la Sterlina è il secondo osservato speciale, con la pubblicazione dei dati sui prezzi al consumo e delle minute della Banca d’Inghilterra.
Euro orientato verso nuovi guadagni in attesa del summit dei Paesi Ue previsto per questa settimana e che dovrebbe semplicemente puntualizzare le modalità di rafforzamento del Fondo Salvastati già concordate nei meeting precedenti.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 21th March 2011
Appetite for risk this week will be once more tempered by unfolding events in Libya, the oil prices reaction to these events, as well as events in Japan, and the condition of the nuclear reactors at Fukushima.
As such the focus will once again be on the Japanese yen after the co-ordinated G7 central bank intervention started by the Bank of Japan last week. The key question remains as to whether last weeks concerted buying will be sustainable, or whether the banks have just bought some time for the currency, with perceptions that the 80 level could well be the proverbial line in the sand. It seems likely that the markets will want to test the G7’s resolve on this one. However it is not just the yen that will be in focus this week but the pound as well with the release of some key pieces of economic inflation data, with CPI set to push even further above 4% while the release of the Bank of England minutes on the same day as the UK budget will certainly add some spice to the mix on Wednesday, especially if we get another committee member move into the hawk camp.
And just to spice things up a little bit more we also have the EU summit later on in the week where EU leaders will try and put the finishing touches to the long awaited agreement for the EU rescue package. With a framework already agreed with respect to an extension to the EFSF to €500bn, and the added flexibility of bond buying on the primary market, it would suggest that all that is needed is for the “T’s” to be crossed and the “I’s” dotted. However life is rarely that simple with Ireland looking for a lower interest rate on its loans, and Germany’s Angela Merkel under increasing political pressure at home with looming elections, the scope for disappointment remains quite high given the single currency’s recent gains.
EURUSD – the single currency remains on course for the November highs of 1.4280 after holding above the 1.4035 break out area and previous highs. While above this new support area the trend line resistance around 1.4310/15, which can be drawn from the all time highs at 1.6040 in 2008 also remains in focus. Only a move back below 1.3970 would look to re-target the 1.3850/60 area. While below 1.3850/60 re-targets the 1.3750 area and then the 100 day MA around 1.3530.
GBPUSD – the pound continues to find buyers around the key support between 1.5965 which is 38.2% retracement of the 1.5350/1.6345 up move, and 1.5980, the 55 day MA. While the bias continues to remain slightly negative, it is important to remember that only a daily close below 1.6000 would negate a move back towards 1.6350 and to the 2010 highs at 1.6460.
EURGBP – the single currency continues to push higher making a high of 0.8760 last week and falling back from trend line resistance around 0.8760 from the all time highs posted on 2008 at 0.9805. A break here could well re-target a move back to the 2010 highs at 0.8940. While it continues to find the 0.8760 level difficult to crack we should see a test of support around the 0.8660/70 area which has been the lows of the past two days. A break below here would then target the 0.8630 area, which is trend line support from the February lows at 0.8355.
USDJPY – while the market continues to worry about intervention it is important to remember that we were unable to close last week below the 80.00 level and the BOJ’s target will be to ensure a monthly close above it as well. It would be surprising though if the market didn’t at least try to test the mettle of the central banks and try to push below the 80 level again and look to re-test last weeks lows around the 76.30 area. To stabilise we need to see a move back through the 82.00 level and re-test this years highs around 84.00.