M. Hewson: le ostilità in Libia sostengono il greggio, dollar index sotto i minimi 2010
Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC MarketsIn attesa di vedere il dato sull’inflazione inglese, che dovrebbe riflettere i rialzi record del Brent di febbraio, i prezzi del petrolio non sembrano accennare ad alcuna inversione di tendenza, almeno finchè proseguiranno le ostilità in Libia. Le attese sono per un rialzo dei tassi di interesse da parte della BoE qualora la crescita di prezzi risulti nella fascia alta dei consensi, mentre anche la Bce sembrerebbe confermare la stretta di politica monetaria attesa per il prossimo mese. Scenario che sostiene l’Euro verso quota $1.4280, mentre il Dollaro continua a rimanere sotto pressione in scia a dati deludenti provenienti dall’economia a stelle e strisce con il Dollar Index sotto i minimi del 2010. Situazione attendista sullo Yen dove gli investitori temono nuovi interventi della BoJ per assestarne il cambio.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 22th March 2011
The unrest in the Middle East continues to put upward pressure on oil prices with Brent Crude up above $114 a barrel with all the problems that brings for central banks around Europe. And it is one central bank in particular, the Bank of England, that will be the focus of attention today with the publication of the latest UK inflation data for February this morning.
With oil prices in February hitting near record highs in sterling terms, above £73 a barrel, it would be no surprise to see month on month inflation exceed the estimates of 0.6%, and an annualised figure of 4.2%. Retail prices are expected to rise 0.7% and year on year by 5.2%. If these figures come in on the higher side of expectations then the Bank of England could well have little choice but to push rates higher, especially if the ECB do raise rates at their April meeting. European Central Bank president Trichet’s remarks yesterday seemed to suggest, along with other ECB members, that the ECB continues to lean in that direction, reiterating the “strong vigilance” language that has, in the past, preceded previous rate hikes.
Certainly tomorrow’s Bank of England minutes could make for some interesting reading with respect to any new splits on the monetary policy committee. Also due out today is the UK public finance figures for February, where expectations are for a deficit of £7.6bn after January’s surprise surplus of £5.3bn. Poor economic data out of the US continues to weigh on the US dollar with existing home sales slumping 9.6% in February, double market expectations of 4.7% and doing nothing to suggest that the US monetary policy would be changing any time soon. The US dollar index has as a result pushed below its 2010 lows at 75.63, with the next significant support level coming around 100 points lower at 74.60. As for the Japanese yen nervousness continues to prevail in the market with traders reluctant to push it too aggressively close to the 80 level for fear of further intervention by the Bank of Japan, and others.
EURUSD – momentum continues to push the single currency back towards its November highs of 1.4280 as it continues to find support above the 1.4035 break out area and previous highs. We need to continue to be aware of the larger long term trend line resistance around 1.4310/15, which can be drawn from the all time highs at 1.6040 in 2008 which is now a key barrier and if broken could well target a strong rally to 1.4580 and the 2010 highs. Only a move back below 1.3970 would look to re-target the 1.3850/60 area. While below 1.3850/60 re-targets the 1.3750 area and then the 100 day MA around 1.3530.
GBPUSD – the range highs and key resistance around 1.6350 remains the key level and is the key obstacle to a move towards the 2010 highs at 1.6460. While support between 1.5965 which is 38.2% retracement of the 1.5350/1.6345 up move, and 1.5980, the 55 day MA, continues to hold the risk of a strong move higher remains on a break above 1.6350. Only a daily close below 1.6000 would target a move back towards 1.5820.
EURGBP – the single currency fell back from the trend line resistance at 0.8760 from the all time highs posted on 2008 at 0.9805. A break here could well re-target a move back to the 2010 highs at 0.8940. While it continues to find the 0.8760 level difficult to crack we should see a test of support around the 0.8660/70 area which has been the lows of the past two days. A break below here would then target the 0.8630 area, which is trend line support from the February lows at 0.8355.
USDJPY – yesterday saw the yen pause for breath after the volatility if recent days but it has found the downside somewhat nervy, probably due to the Japanese holiday yesterday, and fears about further central bank intervention. It would appear the central banks may well want to defend the psychologically important 80.00 level and the BOJ’s target will be to ensure a monthly close above it as well. The last time the yen pushed below the 80 level in 1995 it closed the month well above at 84.00 yen. To stabilise we really need to see a move back through the 82.00 level and re-test this years highs around 84.00.