M. Hewson: Bank of England nuovamente sotto pressione

Scritto il alle 10:01 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC MarketsBank of England nuovamente sotto pressione per un rialzo dei tassi alla prossima riunione in aprile, mentre oggi a Londra il Ministro del Tesoro presenterà la manovra finanziaria. Lo Yen sembra rimanere stabilmente sopra quota 80 anche in scia ad un tono meno incline ad ulteriori manovre di allentamento monetario da parte di alcuni membri della Fed. Probabile il consolidamento del movimento fino a 84. I timori circa le necessità finanziarie del Portogallo e di alcune banche irlandesi tengono in pugno l’Euro che ieri ha perso vigore a poca distanza da $1.4280.


London – 23th March 2011
Yesterday’s high inflation numbers saw the pound take centre stage after the February figures came in well above expectations with both measures rising much more than expected. Consumer prices rose 4.4% year on year, well above expectations of 4.2% while retail prices rise 5.5% year on year, above expectations of 5.2%. Oil prices continue to be one of the reasons along with higher cottons prices as clothing costs increased and this will increase the pressure on the Bank of England to think about raising rates at its April meeting next month, especially given that core inflation has also risen to 3.4%, indicating that inflation is becoming embedded and not transitory as some would believe.

To round things off public sector borrowing rose to a February record of £11.8bn highlighting how little room for manoeuvre the Chancellor has when he steps up to deliver today’s UK budget. On a slightly more positive note the CBI manufacturing order book for March rose +5 against expectations of -6, its highest level since March 2008, continuing to highlight the strength of the UK manufacturing sector.

Before the Chancellor gets to deliver his budget the market gets to digest the minutes of the last Bank of England monetary policy committee meeting, where we will find out whether any other members have joined Messrs Sentance, Weale and Dale in voting for an increase in interest rates. A fourth member could well add to market expectations of a rate hike as early as May.

Having only last week had the UK’s “AAA” credit rating reaffirmed as stable by Fitch the Chancellor will be keen to make sure that the budget passes muster with the markets, while at the same time making sure that he can’t be accused of adding to the risk of tipping the economy back into recession.
His room for manoeuvre will also not be helped by the likely downgrading of growth forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

After the intervention of last week the yen has remained largely side-lined trading around the 81.00 level with little in the way of new factors driving it, however a more hawkish tone from the Fed could go some way to easing the pressure on it and in the first sign of dissent from the new voting members with respect to the Fed’s QE2 policy, Dallas Fed’s Richard Fisher said he would vote against any further QE, amid concerns about rising inflation in the US.  The single currency slipped back from its recent highs over renewed sovereign debt concerns, specifically about the stability of the Portuguese government while there was some concerns about some Irish banks ability make bond coupon payments. 

EURUSD – the single currency ran out of steam yesterday just below the November highs of 1.4280, as it continues to find support above the 1.4035 break out area and previous highs. We continue to monitor these highs and larger long term trend line resistance around 1.4310/15, which can be drawn from the all time highs at 1.6040 in 2008. This remains a key barrier and if broken could well target a strong rally to 1.4580 and the 2010 highs. While below this resistance we could well see some pullbacks. Only a move back below 1.3970 would look to re-target the 1.3850/60 area.  While below 1.3850/60 re-targets the 1.3750 area and then the 100 day MA around 1.3530.

GBPUSD – yesterday saw cable break out above the recent range highs and key resistance around 1.6350 and look to head towards the 2010 highs at 1.6460.  This remains a key resistance level and if breached could well target 1.6600. Any pullbacks could well find support around 1.6340 and below that at 1.6280.  The major support remains between 1.5965 which is 38.2% retracement of the 1.5350/1.6345 up move, and 1.5980, the 55 day MA. Only a daily close below 1.6000 would target a move back towards 1.5820.

EURGBP – as expected we saw the single currency slip back from the trend line resistance at 0.8760, from the all time highs posted on 2008 at 0.9805.  The support around the 0.8655/65 area has so far held and this area also acts as trend line support from the from the February lows at 0.8355.  These two levels are now important to the single currencies next big move. A break above 0.8750 could well re-target a move back to the 2010 highs at 0.8940, while a break below 0.8650 could well re-target the 0.8580 area.

USDJPY – we continue to see the yen consolidate around the 81.00 level with support around 80.80 and resistance around 81.30 as markets weigh up which way to push the pair next. It would appear the central banks may well want to defend the psychologically important 80.00 level and the BOJ’s target will be to ensure a monthly close above it as well. The last time the yen pushed below the 80 level in 1995 it closed the month well above at 84.00 yen.
To stabilise we really need to see a move back through the 82.00 level and re-test this years highs around 84.00.

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