M. Hewson: la situazione portoghese e l’indecisione europea appesantiscono l’euro
Fino a che l’Euro non riuscirà a oltrepassare stabilmente la quota di $1.4280 difficilmente potremmo assistere ad un rally che lo porti verso i massimi registrati nel 2008. Il fatto che il Portogallo sia ad un passo dalla formalizzazione di una richiesta di intervento da parte del Fondo Salvastati e che difficilmente i Paesi membri troveranno una soluzione definitiva prima del mese di giugno sono tutti fattori che costituiscono limiti oggettivi alla possibilità di nuovi e consistenti guadagni per la moneta unica. Nel corso della seduta odierna la Sterlina potrebbe risentire del dato circa le vendite al dettaglio del mese di febbraio, previsto in calo, mentre aumentano i dubbi sull’attuabilità di un rialzo dei tassi prima di un paio di mesi. Calma piatta sullo Yen, in attesa di capire se il cambio contro il Dollaro riuscirà a chiudere la settimana sopra 81.30 e soprattutto se sussiste la volontà delle banche centrali per un nuovo intervento congiunto a suo sostegno. All’interno di uno scenario che pone nuove incertezze, gli investitori non smettono di comprare Oro, a protezione contro le perdite derivanti da fattori geopolitici e dai rischi legati ai debiti sovrani.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 24th March 2011
The failure of the Portuguese government to push through its austerity budget and subsequent resignation of its Prime Minister increases the probability that the beleaguered country will have to give into the inevitability of a financial bail-out. This, and the decision by EU leaders to push the final decision on the EFSF into June, suggests that European leaders are no nearer to reaching a decision to deal with the sovereign debt issues plaguing the region, than they were two months ago.
Following hot on the heels of yesterday’s Bank of England minutes and UK budget, the pound could well be in for another dose of bad news today in the form of UK retail sales for February, where economists expect a decline of 0.6% in stark contrast to January’s 1.9% rise. Yesterday’s Bank minutes maintained the status quo set at the previous meeting with Sentance, Weale and Dale proposing an increase in interest rates with Sentance stayed true to form in proposing a 0.5% rise, while the other two proposed a rise in 0.25%.
The realisation that no new members joined the hawkish trio appears to have put the possibility of a rate hike onto the back burner for a month or two, though Tuesday’s higher than expected inflation numbers may change that dynamic at the April meeting. A downgrade of growth figures for 2011 and 2012 in the budget also disappointed the market, though the reduction in the 2011 figure was more or less expected, due to the poor Q4 number for 2010. A disappointing retail sales number later today will not help matters either, and serve to make any decision on rates much trickier than the inflation figures would suggest.
In the US new home sales figures for February were dire, dropping 16.9%, however the US dollar seemed to shrug these off, and it is hoped that today’s weekly jobless claims will continue their recent trend of being sub 400k with expectations of 383k, while durable goods for February are expected to increase by 1.2% down slightly from January’s 3.2%. Gold prices continue to remain underpinned as investors continue to hedge against geo-political and sovereign risk factors.
EURUSD – the twin resistances above 1.4280 continue to bear down on the single currency, however before we get excited about a pullback it would need to see a significant move below 1.4035 to trigger a move back below 1.4000 towards the 1.3850/60 area. We continue to monitor these highs and larger long term trend line resistance around 1.4310/15, which can be drawn from the all time highs at 1.6040 in 2008. This remains a key barrier and if broken could well target a strong rally to 1.4580 and the 2010 highs. While below this resistance we could well see some of the pullbacks outlined above.
GBPUSD – the break towards 1.6400 that we saw earlier this week could well have been premature given that yesterday we posted a daily bearish engulfing candle.This suggests we could well have seen the highs in the short term and we could be set to re-test towards the range lows around 1.5965. We could well see pullbacks towards the range highs, but the pound could well run into resistance around 1.6280 and 1.6340/50.A break below 1.6180 could well re-target a move towards the 55 day MA at 1.6056 and below that they key support around the 1.5980 area. A daily close below 1.6000 would target a move back towards 1.5820.
EURGBP – yesterday’s support at the 0.8655/65 area contained the downside pressure in the single currency prompting a rebound back through the 0.8700 level. However I remain of the opinion that while below the trend line resistance at 0.8760, from the all time highs posted on 2008 at 0.9805 we could see further losses and a break of the support around the 0.8655/65 area. These two levels are now important to the single currencies next big move. A break above 0.8750 could well re-target a move back to the 2010 highs at 0.8940, while a break below 0.8650 could well re-target the 0.8580 area.
USDJPY – the yen continues to slowly edge higher after the recent intervention but continues to trade fairly quietly. It does appear that we could see a test of the resolve of the central banks again if the dollar is unable to rally back above the 81.30 level and highs of this week. It remains to be seen if the central banks will try to defend the psychologically important 80.00 level and the BOJ’s target will be to ensure a monthly close above it as well. The last time the yen pushed below the 80 level in 1995 it closed the month well above at 84.00 yen. To stabilise we really need to see a move back through the 82.00 level and re-test
this years highs around 84.00.