M. Hewson: le attese di un rialzo dei tassi sorreggono l’euro

Scritto il alle 11:36 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets

Nonostante il Portogallo sia ormai considerato prossimo ad una richiesta di intervento del Fondo Salvastati e i problemi dei Paesi membri della Ue di trovare una soluzione permanente alla questione del debito sovrano, i movimenti  dell’Euro sembrano essere unicamente influenzati dalle attese di un prossimo rialzo dei tassi, rendendo difficile pensare che gli investitori a questo punto non siano caduti nella trappola della fiducia ad oltranza (nelle prossime 24 ore si vedrà se questa fiducia sia ben riposta o meno).Dall’altra parte della Manica, la Sterlina continua a perdere posizioni iniziando a configurare una debolezza marcata anche dal punto di vista tecnico. Dollaro in attesa della pubblicazione del dato finale del Pil dell’ultimo trimestre del 2010 mentre continua la calma apparente sullo Yen, almeno finchè verrà preservata quota 81.30.


London – 25th March 2011
On Thursday we saw the start of the EU summit where EU leaders attempted to build on the agreement a few days ago to bolster the EFSF and come to an agreement about the new European Stability Mechanism (ESM) from 2013.  Yesterday’s collapse of the Portuguese government after its failure to pass an austerity budget appears to have been shrugged off by the market, and despite surging bond yields Portugal still insists it doesn’t need a bailout, as risk trades come back onto the table.

Given that the beleaguered country needs to raise over $14bn by April 15th it seems unlikely that bond yields will come down enough for them to be able to do this and as such a bailout seems inevitable if only they would ask for it.  Combined with the news that Ireland’s economy contracted for the third year in a row, making it highly improbable that they will ever be able to pay back their debt pile, it makes you wonder what will derail the rise of the single currency at this moment.  Even a double downgrade of Portugal from Fitch and then S&P late last night appear not to have dented sentiment too much for a currency that appears entirely driven on perceptions of an increase in rates to the exclusion of all else.

With Germany’s Angela Merkel pushing back against the bail-out deal agreed a few days ago, it is hard not to think that investors are being somewhat over confident about there being a quick resolution to the European debt crisis and an agreement amongst EU members with respect to a rescue fund. I guess we shall see in the next 24 hours if this confidence turns out to be well founded or hopelessly misplaced. In contrast to the fortunes of the euro the pound has been battered in the last 24 hours after UK retail sales figures came in much worse than expected, declining 0.8%, after the effects of the January VAT increase finally kicked in and cut back on consumers spending as concerns about forthcoming spending cuts begin to weigh on spending habits.

The poor numbers could make it easier for the Bank of England to keep their fingers off the rates trigger in the short term, but if inflation continues to rise they may soon find they have no choice, given that Bank of England chief economist Spencer Dale expressed concern that expectations of inflation may well start to become embedded.  Moody’s comments about the possibility of a ratings downgrade if growth in the UK slows too much in the face of the upcoming fiscal squeeze didn’t help either. Hopefully next week’s final revision of Q4 GDP may provide some relief.  On that very subject today’s release of final US Q4 GDP is expected to come in around 3% a slight revision higher from 2.8%.

EURUSD – yesterday’s rally in the single currency rebounded just short of the key 1.4035 support area, however it has still not been able to get above the twin resistances above 1.4280 which should continue to bear down on the single currency.  It still needs a significant move below 1.4035 to trigger a move back below 1.4000 towards the 1.3850/60 area, otherwise the risk of a break higher remains.  We continue to monitor these highs and larger long term trend line resistance around 1.4300/10, which can be drawn from the all time highs at 1.6040 in 2008. This remains a key barrier and if broken could well target a strong rally to 1.4580 and the 2010 highs. While below this resistance we could well see some of the pullbacks outlined above.

GBPUSD – the pound has started to exhibit some alarming weakness on its trade weighted index over the past couple of days and Wednesday’s bearish engulfing candle which we mentioned yesterday turned out to be quite prescient.  As indicated yesterday this suggests we could well have seen the highs in the short term and we could be set to re-test towards the range lows around 1.5965. Unable to break above the first resistance at 1.6280 the pound pushed lower stopping just shy of the 55 day MA at 1.6070. Yesterday’s break below 1.6180 proved to be the catalysts for that and a break below 1.6070 could well target key support around the 1.5965/80 area.  A daily close below 1.6000 would target a move back towards 1.5820. 

EURGBP – the trend line support around the 0.8655/65 area once again contained the downside pressure in the single currency and yesterday saw a strong euro move through the 0.8700 level as well as a strong break through the trend line resistance at 0.8760, from the all time highs posted on 2008 at 0.9805.
This move alters the picture dramatically and if we close this week above 0.8750 then we could be heading back towards the highs of 2010 around 0.8940.  For now the air seems a bit thin above 0.8810 which was also the May 2010 highs, and a failure here could well see a slide back towards the long term trend line now around 0.8680.

USDJPY – not much change here I’m afraid in terms of the overall picture.  The yen continues to slowly edge higher after the recent intervention but continues to trade fairly quietly. The market seems reluctant for now to test the resolve of the central banks but that could change over the coming days if the dollar is unable to rally back above the 81.30 level and highs of this week. It remains to be seen if the central banks will try to defend the psychologically important 80.00 level and the BOJ’s target will be to ensure a monthly close above it as well. The last time the yen pushed below the 80 level in 1995 it closed the month well above at 84.00 yen.
To stabilise we really need to see a move back through the 82.00 level and re-test this years highs around 84.00.

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