M. Hewson: eurodollaro sostenuto dalle strategie opposte delle banche centrali
Si rafforzano le possibilità di guadagni da parte dell’Euro ora che un rialzo dei tassi ad aprile sembra ormai inevitabile dopo gli ultimi commenti di Trichet, nonostante questo rappresenti quasi sicuramente la miccia per l’esplosione del debito dei Paesi periferici. A tinteggiare ancora più foscamente lo scenario, una Germania con una testa politica non più rappresentativa del corpo elettorale e indebolita nel processo decisionale e le sofferenze del sistema bancario irlandese costituiscono elementi di incertezza di non poco conto.
Dall’altra parte dell’oceano, la Fed non sembra aver alcuna fretta di un cambio di marcia verso una politica monetaria restrittiva e questo lascia presupporre che potremmo vedere il cambio Eurodollaro non discostarsi di molto dai livelli attuali. Nessuna novità per il momento nemmeno sul cambio DollaroYen, fermo a quota 82: è presumibile che le autorità giapponesi lascino scivolare nuovamente il rapporto sotto quota 81 per testare la volontà di un intervento congiunto da parte della comunità internazionale.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 29th March 2011
Despite opening lower yesterday the single currency pared its early losses after comments from ECB president Trichet were interpreted as suggesting a rate hike was inevitable at next months rate setting meeting. This despite the fact that any rate hike will in all likelihood set up the next stage of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.
Today’s March German CPI figures could well give further clues about the likelihood of such an action, with expectations of a 2.1% rise year on year. However last weekend’s events have also raised the possibility of political uncertainty about Germany’s capability in possibly bankrolling any Europe wide bailout, given the erosion of Angela Merkel’s powerbase in various states.
Concerns about the European banking system are also weighing with the results of the latest batch pf stress tests expected to have an effect with Irish banks expected to find out how much extra cash they will need on Thursday. The pound will also be in the spotlight today with the final revision of Q4 GDP set to be announced. Expectations are for there to be no revision to the final figure, staying at -0.6%, with some sterling bulls hoping for a slight upward revision to around – 0.4%.
UK mortgage approvals for February will also be watched for any signs of a pick up in the housing market; however this doesn’t seem likely given the recent erosion in consumer confidence. Yesterday’s US economic data showed a much bigger increase in personal spending for February, up 0.7%; however it was the PCE Core price data, which excludes food and energy price increases, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which saw the US dollar pare its gains on the day.
The greenback had opened significantly higher, but the PCE data came in at 0.2% for the second month in a row, and given this fact the Fed is unlikely to be in any hurry to tighten fiscal policy any time soon, no matter how discredited this pricing measure maybe in terms of the ordinary consumer, or the markets, who see inflation as a real problem that the Fed appears to be oblivious to. With this in mind today’s latest consumer confidence figure for March is expected to show a fall from the previous 70.4 reading to 66.0.
EURUSD – the continued failure to break through the key support area at 1.4020/30 continues to underpin the single currency in the short term, and as such the odds continue to favour further gains, though the failure to break above 1.4120 does keep the market guessing. Assuming that we have seen the highs in the short term the current pullback can see a move back towards 1.4170, trend line resistance from the 1.4250 highs last week, before dropping back through 1.4020/30 to re-test the 1.3850/60 level. The larger long term trend line resistance remains around 1.4300/10, which can be drawn from the all time highs at 1.6040 in 2008 remains a key barrier and if broken could well target a strong rally to 1.4580 and the 2010 highs.
GBPUSD – sterling bears appear to be getting the upper hand here and to stabilise we would need to see the pound close back above the 1.6020/30 level. Even though we pushed as low as 1.5940 yesterday the lack of follow through leaves the pound susceptible to pullbacks. Having broken below the 55 day MA at 1.6080 the onus now shifts to the downside. The pound now needs to get back above 1.6080 to stabilise and re-target the 1.6180 level. Yesterday’s daily close below 1.6000 has the potential to target a move back towards 1.5800/20 which is also trend line support from last year’s lows at 1.4230.
EURGBP – a slight overspill to 0.8819 yesterday, but again the single currency was unable to follow through with any conviction at the moment. However while the single currency is able to hold above 0.8750 the risk remains for a break above the recent highs around 0.8820 to re-test the highs of 2010 around 0.8940.
For now the air seems a bit thin above 0.8820, and a failure here could well see a slide back towards the long term trend line now around 0.8710.
USDJPY – the post intervention highs at 82.00 continue to cap gains in the US dollar for the moment as the reluctance of the market to test the resolve of the central banks could well see the yen weakness the Japanese authorities want to see. The key support remains around the 80.70 area which has been the lows post intervention so a break below here could well see the market look to test the resolve of the central banks in trying to defend the psychologically important 80.00 level. To stabilise we really need to see a move back through the 82.00 level high seen post intervention, and re-test this years highs around 84.00.