M. Hewson: la forza dell’aussie potrebbe rappresentare un presidio contro l’inflazione
La banca centrale australiana ha deciso di mantenere i tassi invariati, fiduciosa che l’Aussie australiano ai massimi contro dollaro e yen possa ben rappresentare un presidio naturale alla crescita dei prezzi. Euro stabile in area $1.42 in quello che potrebbe essere definito un risveglio tardivo dei mercati, che alla vigilia del rialzo dei tassi di giovedì, si interrogano sulle conseguenze finanziarie per i Paesi periferici e per la stabilità del sistema bancario europeo di una moneta unica più cara. Gli investitori, d’altro canto, scontano già un nulla di fatto della BoE prima della fine del mese (in attesa di vedere i dati sul Pil), mentre cresce la confusione in seno al Fomc dopo che ieri il presidente della Fed di Atlanta ha dichiarato di non vedere segnali di inversione dell’economia tali che facciano propendere per un’interruzione del programma di riacquisto di bond (QE). DollaroYen in frenata ma senza compromettere la possibiltà di un nuovo rally verso 85.60.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 5th April 2011
This morning’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold rates at 4.75% could well have been a surprise to some people given concerns about rising inflation, however in view of the recent floods in Queensland the bank probably felt it wiser to take stock and gauge the effects on the economy before acting hastily. Given the Australian dollar was at 30 year highs against the dollar and eleven month highs against the yen, the hope is that a bleed through effect of a higher currency should eventually act to bear down on prices.
The Aussie has found some resistance at the top of its up channel at 1.0420 and if it breaks 1.03 could well fall further. The single currency appears to be catching its breath for now after its recent moves higher, which begs the question have the currency markets woken up to the fact that an interest rate increase this week by the European Central Bank presents a clear and present danger to the stability of the banking system in Europe, and in particular the peripheral countries like Ireland, Greece, Portugal as well as Spain.
On Thursday we shall find out but in the meantime today’s German PMI data could well give pause for thought. In the UK, yesterday morning provided the second in the latest of three data releases of UK PMI data with construction beating expectations of 54.8, coming in at 56.4. Today’s March services PMI however will be a key test with expectations of 52.6, unchanged from February’s figure. Irrespective of the figure we get today it would appear unlikely that the Bank of England will raise rates at its meeting on Thursday, preferring in all likelihood to wait until the release of the latest Q1 GDP numbers at the end of this month.
As far as the US dollar is concerned conflicting messages from FOMC voting members could make the release of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting rather interesting. Overnight we have seen the US dollar slip back after some dovish rhetoric out of the Fed, this time by Atlanta Fed Dennis Lockhart who indicated that he hadn’t seen enough evidence of a turnaround in the economy to warrant curtailing QE2, while Bernanke continues to insist that inflation will be transitory putting him at odds with Messrs Plosser, Fisher and a number of other non-voting members. It should make for a lively debate at subsequent meetings and ensure that Bernanke won’t get his own way after QE2 finishes in June.
EURUSD – the convergence of the November highs at 1.4280 and long term trend line resistance from the all time highs at 1.6040 in 2008 continue to cap the single currency’s gains for the time-being. The convergence of these two levels looks to be taking on an ever increasing importance with respect to the euro’s future direction. If broken this resistance could well target a strong rally to 1.4580 and the 2010 highs. The key support area remains between the support from the lows this year now around 1.4080 and the 1.4020/30 area. Until such time this level is taken out we can expect more of the same range trading we’ve seen over the past few days. We need to see a drop back through this 1.4020/30 to re-test the 1.3850/60 level.
GBPUSD – yesterday’s rebound brought the pound up short around the 1.6180 resistance identified yesterday. A break above 1.6180 re-targets the upper end of the recent range at 1.6300, while a move above that targets 1.6460, the 2009 highs. The key support on the downside remains the range lows around 1.5965 which has pretty much contained any drop since the end of January. The major trend line support now comes in around 1.5820 from the lows last year at 1.4230, but we can only expect to see a test of that on a close below 1.5980.
EURGBP – The 0.8850 level continues to act as a short term cap on the market while the trend line support from the 0.8355 lows of mid February now comes in around the 0.8775 area. While above this key area of support the recent up trend remains intact and the risk remains for a re-test of the highs of 2010 around 0.8940. Below 0.8740 re-targets 0.8690.
USDJPY – a little bit of US dollar weakness yesterday after the gains of recent days, however while above the 200 day MA downside should be limited to around 83.50, which is also last Friday’s lows. While above the 200 day MA we could well see a move higher towards the trend line resistance at 85.60 from the highs in June 2007 around 124.00. For now it would appear the co-ordinated intervention may have bought the Bank of Japan the time it needs and on the monthly charts we have an extremely nice hammer for March, which suggests we may well have seen the lows.