M. Hewson: tornano gli acquisti su franco e yen, in calo la sterlina
Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets
La riduzione delle stime di crescita per Usa e Gran Bretagna riporta gli acquisti su Franco svizzero e Yen mentre i dati che hanno mostrato una diminuzione dell’inflazione nel Regno Unito stanno penalizzando la Sterlina perchè allontanano ulteriormente la possibilità di un rialzo dei tassi il prossimo mese. Euro sopra $1.45 per la prima volta da gennaio 2010 potrebbe puntare a 1.50 qualora superasse stabilmente la resistenza posta a 1.46.
Attenzione anche al cambio DollaroYen: una violazione al ribasso di 83.50 reindirizzerebbe verso gli 82.10, già considerata una soglia critica dagli istituti centrali di vigilanza.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 13th April 2011
Significant risk aversion saw the Swiss franc and yen regain some of the ground lost in the past few days on the cutting of global growth forecasts by the IMF of the US and UK economies and continued uncertainty about the nuclear situation in Japan. Yesterday’s surprise fall in the UK inflation rate for March, coming on the back of some poor retail sales numbers sent the pound tumbling, as the likelihood of a near term rate hike receded and this overshadowed much better than expected trade numbers for February.
The pound will continue to be in the spotlight today with the release of the latest unemployment data with jobless claims for March expected to decline by 3k, while the ILO quarterly unemployment rate for February is expected to remain unchanged at 8%. The single currency continues to gain ground shrugging off a disappointing ZEW economic survey for April, which declined to 7.6 from a previous 14.1, while it received a boost from comments by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao that the Chinese would remain willing to buy Spanish sovereign debt.
In the US later today the health of the US consumer is benchmarked with retail sales numbers for March expected to slip back slightly from February’s 1% rise to a gain of 0.5%, as the market looks to see if US consumers are as similarly constrained as their UK counterparts.
EURUSD – another step closer to the 1.4580 resistance level yesterday as the single currency pushed above 1.4500 for the first time since January last year. It should be interesting to see if the current upward momentum begins to stall and prompt a long overdue correction. However while above the 1.4250/80 break out area upside momentum towards the 2010 highs at 1.4580 remains intact. A sustained break above 1.4600 could well re-open the road to 1.5000. Only a drop below the 1.4250 area would then target the key support area from the lows this year at 1.2870 now around 1.4220 and then the 1.4020/30 area. Only a drop through the 1.4020/30 level can signal a re-test of the 1.3850/60 level.
GBPUSD – Yesterday’s sterling weakness saw the pound slide back below 1.6280 but it only managed to follow through to 1.6225, short of the 1.6180 area. While this area of support remains intact the pound will continue to do what it does best and squeeze short positions. Pull back resistance around 1.6330 and behind that the recent range highs above 1.6400. As mentioned on a number of occasions the major support level on the downside of the current range, continues to be the February and March lows, around 1.5965. The major trend line support comes in to play around 1.5875 from the lows last year at 1.4230, but we can only expect to see a test of that on a close below 1.5980.
EURGBP – yesterday’s break above the 0.8850/60 area now brings the October 2010 highs at 0.8940 into play as Monday’s bearish 4 hour candle turned out to be a red herring, as the perils of trying to pick tops continues to frustrate. A move above 0.8940 targets 0.9000. The uptrend from the February lows at 0.8355 currently has support around the 0.8770/80 area and until such time as we break below this line further gains seem likely. However the 0.8940 area could well offer stiff resistance in the short term and provoke a decline back towards the trend line support.
USDJPY – the 83.50 level and 200 day MA continues to support the market as some risk aversion has prompted some yen buying. A break below here would re-target a move towards 82.10, which was the resistance post central bank intervention. The long term trend line resistance at 85.50/60 and 50% retracement level of the down move from the 2010 highs at 95 to the lows at 76.25, remain the key levels acting to stop a rally towards the 87.90 area, which is 61.8% retracement of the same down move.