M. Hewson: attenzione all’andamento dell’inflazione statunitense
Ulteriore ritracciamento per l’Eurodollaro il cui successivo rimbalzo non modifica l’orientamento verso $1.40: da una parte gli investitori vendono euro a causa della situazione irrisolta del debito greco e dall’altra lo ricomprano sulle dichiarazioni di politica monetaria rialzista da parte della Bce.La debolezza della crescita macroeconomica penalizza la Sterlina mentre il ritorno di segnali inflazionistici evidenti anche negli Stati Uniti potrebbe creare una divisione più marcata all’interno della Fed tra “falchi” e “colombe”, specie se il dato del CPI di Aprile dovesse uscire oltre le previsioni. DollaroYen in rafforzamento verso 82.50.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 13th May 2011
The past 24 hours have seen mixed messages from the markets in terms of risk off, and then risk on, as the US dollar tested both sides of its recent range in an attempt to try and locate the line of least resistance as commodities fell sharply on Chinese tightening measures, and then later rebounded.
Concerns about the sovereign situation in Greece and possible restructuring on the one hand weighed on the euro only to be offset against perceptions of tighter monetary policy after some hawkish comments from ECB policymaker Coene.
Yesterday’s disappointing April euro zone industrial production data has raised some concerns that higher energy prices are beginning to weigh down on growth in Europe, after a surprise fall of 0.3%. In data due out this morning German and Euro zone Q1 GDP data could well give important clues as to the effects these high commodity prices have had on growth with German GDP expected to improve from 0.4% to 0.9%, to be followed later by Euro zone GDP data, which is expected to come improve from 0.3% to 0.6%.
The pound also suffered yesterday after both industrial and manufacturing data for April fell short of expectations. Sentiment was not helped with NIESR saying that economic growth had slipped to 0.3% for the three months to April, however they did say they didn’t expect a double dip recession but warned along with the IMF that growth was likely to remain constrained by the government’s austerity measures and the high debt levels in the UK economy. Yesterday’s US economic data suggested inflationary pressures were starting to constrain consumer spending with PPI rising above expectations, and retail sales coming in below expectations.
If US CPI for April shows similar inflationary pressure then Fed policy splits could well become more high profile. April CPI is expected to climb from 2.7% to 3.1%, while University of Michigan confidence for May is expected to climb slightly from 69.8 to 70.
EURUSD – in a quite choppy session yesterday the single currency broke below the 55 day MA at 1.4265, making a low of 1.4123 before rebounding, as it was unable to sustain a move below the 1.4150 38.2% retracement level of the up move from the lows this year at 1.2870 to the recent highs at 1.4940. However the rebound was unable to get it back above the average and until the market is able to sustain a close above the 55 day average the onus remains for a test of 1.4000, due to last week’s bearish engulfing candle. A sustained close below the 1.4150 level would then open a move towards the 1.4000 area.
GBPUSD – yesterday’s cable decline saw the pound fall below the 55 day MA at 1.6285 but unable to close below it, as we bounced off the trend line support at 1.6235 from the 1.5350 December lows. While this line holds the pound will remain susceptible to rebounds to 1.6330 and even 1.6380. However the bearish engulfing week candlestick last week continues to keep the outlook negative for the pound in the medium term. A break of 1.6230 opens up 1.6130 on the way to the major support level on the downside which remains around 1.5965, the February and March lows.
EURGBP – despite closing below the 50% retracement level at 0.8700 on Wednesday the single currency rebounded from the 0.8675 level to push back up towards its 55 day MA, now at 0.8755, but was unable to close above it. As such the downward pressure of the last few days remains intact despite the strong rally yesterday. The next target remains at the 0.8620 area which is the 61.8% retracement level of the 0.8355/0.9040 up move.
USDJPY – the 81.20/30 area remains a key resistance area for further US dollar gains. While this level holds there is a risk of a slide back towards the lows this week around 80.10. While support around these levels holds we could still get a break above yesterday’s highs at 81.30 and this could be the catalyst for further gains, and a recovery towards 82.50. A move below 79.80 could well target further losses towards 78.80.